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U.S. Election Betting: Kalshi's Polymarket Rival Quickly Gets Traction

This week in prediction markets:

  • Presidential betting passes $30 million on Kalshi.
  • Trump name-drops Polymarket – or tried to, anyway.
  • Arb opportunity? There's a discrepancy between Polymarket's individual swing state markets and a contract about all of them.
UnmuteTesla Is Moving Bitcoin; Trump-Supported Token Falls Flat02:28Trump Pumps DeFi Token Sale; Bitcoin Price Jumps Above $65K02:01Trump-Endorsed Crypto Project Confirms Plan for a Token; Bhutan Holds Over $780M in Bitcoin02:15"Inside Trump's Crypto Project; Ripple's Upcoming Stablecoin To Launch in 'Weeks': Garlinghouse "02:15"Inside Trump's Crypto Project; Ripple's Upcoming Stablecoin To Launch in 'Weeks': Garlinghouse "This U.S. election cycle will be over in two weeks. For some, it will be a sigh of relief. But prediction market platforms are having the time of their lives.

Kalshi, which only launched election prediction market contracts in October after a favorable court ruling against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, recently passed $30 million in trading volume on its main election contract. It still trails Polymarket, which did about $40 million from early January to early February, its first month of presidential betting, and recently passed $2 billion. But as a regulated platform, Kalshi had to sit on the sidelines until it won in court.

The market gives Republican nominee Donald Trump a 14 percentage point lead over his Democratic rival Kamala Harris. These odds must come solely from U.S. nationals (and permanent residents), because Kalshi's terms and conditions prohibit foreign nationals from trading on the platform.By contrast, the industry leader Polymarket prohibits U.S traders from the platform but does not require a know-your-customer process to validate who is who. Polymarket's bets are denominated in cryptocurrency, whereas Kalshi's are settled in regular dollars.

Initially, some might have thought that Kalshi was coming to market with a handicap, because it's regulated. But this has allowed the platform to escape the allegations of market manipulation by shadowy, possibly foreign, dark money that have dogged Polymarket.Instead, Kalshi created a rebuttal to such accusations for its much larger competitor.In a thread on X (formerly Twitter), Tarek Mansour, Kalshi's co-founder, outlined how market manipulation falls flat on his platform, where, as on Polymarket, Trump leads with a commanding margin.

"The median bet size on Harris is LARGER than the median bet size on Donald Trump," he wrote. "Trump’s odds are not the result of a few people pushing the odds up. It’s the opposite."Looking through Dune, a crypto analytics portal (Kalshi wouldn't be on Dune as it's not a crypto platform), the bet size numbers aren't too far off on Polymarket.Data shows that overall on the site the median betting size is between $10 and $50.Distribution of bet sizes on PolymarketNow, for Polymarket's presidential election contract, median data isn't immediately available on Dune. The next best thing is the average bet size (remember the difference between average and median) which comes in at $210 for Trump and $113 for Harris.

Going back to the overall Polymarket platform, the number of users who have placed bets above $100,000 is only 27 – while there are over 220,000 users on the platform.Some of those 27 users are placing $20 million-plus bets that are bound to put pressure on markets. But the fact that Polymarket's numbers are in line with Kalshi's on Trump suggests that these whales aren't having the effect that critics of prediction markets think they are.'Polypoll' and swing statesSometime between launching a crypto token that's off to a rocky start and working a shift at McDonald's (the employer of last resort for failed crypto bros) Trump name-dropped Polymarket at a rally, calling it "Polypoll."

This isn't the first time the Republican candidate has acknowledged Polymarket, as his team posted favorable odds on his Truth Social page during his first surge this summer.While Polymarket's election contract has Trump well ahead of his Democratic rival at 62-37, some of the numbers aren't adding up.Individual state-level contracts have Trump winning every swing state, even Nevada, with a healthy margin.But a contract asking if he'll win every swing state is coming in at just 32% on the ”yes“ side.

The largest holder on the “no” side, who goes by the handle "AntiMaga," has $5 million in positions, largely taking the “no” side on Trump or Republican-related contracts.Meanwhile, the largest holder on the other side of the bet, Yeueu, is holding much less in terms of positions overall, but is up 88% on the swing state contract.All of this is a reminder that markets aren't perfect, and inefficiencies exist – or arbitrage opportunities, depending on your perspective.Edited by Marc Hochstein and Nick Baker.

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    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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