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Trump and Biden Likely Won't Shake Hands at Debate, Prediction Market Says

This week in prediction markets:

  • Polymarket bettors doubt Biden and Trump will shake hands at debate.
  • Manifold forecasters expect a correction from the Guardian.
  • Prediction markets don't see an Edmonton Stanley Cup victory, nor do sportsbooks
The handshake has long been a key component of U.S. presidential debates. It's a gesture of civility and mutual respect, despite opposing ideas, and has been the "first scene" (and last) of presidential debates for the last four decades (though it was absent from the first televised one in 1960).But Polymarket bettors doubt there will be one during the first 2024 presidential debate, scheduled for June 27.(Polymarket)"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Donald Trump and Joe Biden shake hands at any point immediately before, during, or immediately after the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle," the market contract reads, with "yes" shares currently trading at 32 cents.For the uninitiated, in prediction markets, individuals who predict the correct outcome are rewarded with $1 per share, whereas those who guess incorrectly earn nothing. The price of a share indicates the perceived probability of an event; for example, a share priced at 32 cents implies a 32% likelihood of that event occurring.The break in handshakes started during the 2016 election cycle, when debates began to get particularly acrimonious compared to the past.Biden and Trump didn't shake hands during the 2020 debate cycle, not because of hostility and acrimony between the candidates – there was plenty of that – but rather Covid protocols.Former President Trump's claims that the 2020 election was stolen will likely come up during the debate, as well as his mounting legal troubles. Trump will likely respond with Hunter Biden's legal woes as well as make comments about President Biden's mental agility.Does this sound like the sort of environment where two people will shake hands before or after?Meanwhile, the rumor mill is playing a guessing game as to whether the Biden campaign will accept cryptocurrency donations, following a move by Trump to do so.Don't bet on it, Polymarket bettors say, giving it just a 14% chance of happening by June 21.Betting on a CorrectionThe Guardian published an article Sunday depicting prediction markets and their supporters in an unflattering light, associating them with convicted fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried and with "scientific racism." Now there's a prediction market on whether the U.K. newspaper will correct the story.Forecasters on Manifold.markets see an 84% chance that the Guardian will correct at least one of the factual statements in the article. The contract will resolve to "yes" if the publication acknowledges an error in an editor's note, makes a "stealth edit," or removes the piece entirely.(Manifold Markets)Unlike Polymarket, where bets are settled in cryptocurrency, Manifold is a self-described "play money" market. Bets are made in a digital (not crypto) currency called mana. Users start with 200 mana for free and can buy more. They can't cash out. The pitch for betting on Manifold is that it allows participants to build a reputation as accurate forecasters.The Guardian article claimed that former FTX CEO Bankman-Fried "funneled" nearly $5 million of the crypto exchange's customers' funds to a nonprofit called Lightcone Infrastructure. Lightcone, the piece said, used the money to buy a former hotel in Berkeley, Calif. FTX trustees are seeking the return of the allegedly misappropriated funds, according to the Guardian.Last week, the former hotel was the venue for the Manifest 2024 conference on prediction markets and forecasting hosted by Manifold and Manifund. The latter organization is a nonprofit that helps fund charitable projects (the Guardian misdescribed it as a prediction market). The piece highlighted controversial statements some of the conference speakers have made about topics unrelated to prediction markets.On X (formerly Twitter), Oliver Habryka, Lightcone Infrastructure's CEO, identified five factual errors with the piece (including the mischaracterization of Manifund).Habryka said he isn't considering legal action against the Guardian, posting on X that "U.K. libel law is pretty insane, and I would feel terrible wielding it against anyone."No such puckThe Stanley Cup finals looked like a sure thing for the Florida Panthers until this weekend's game—the fourth in the series—when the Edmonton Oilers demolished the competition, winning 8-1.But this momentum didn't do much for Edmonton's chances at winning the Stanley Cup, according to prediction markets, only resulting in a three percentage point gain, from 7% to 10%, putting Florida's chances of victory at 90%.Sportsbooks are giving Edmonton a slight edge when compared to Polymarket, but not by much: BetMGM's book is giving the Oilers 8.25 over the Panthers' 1.08, which converts to the Oilers having a 12% chance. Other sportsbooks are giving similar odds, with Oilers coming in at 12% to 13%.Florida just needs to win one more game to finish the series and take home the Stanley Cup. That next game is back on home ice, where the Oilers have consistently lost.Edited by Marc Hochstein.

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    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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