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Trump 401k order could drive up to $122 billion into Bitcoin, Ethereum through default flows

President Donald Trump signed an order on Aug. 7 allowing crypto in 401(k) plans, subject to agency rulemaking.

The directive tells the Labor Department, the SEC, and Treasury to revisit constraints on plan menus, opening the door for defined contribution plans to add sleeves tied to Bitcoin and ether through pooled vehicles.

The focus now is on the size of the default crypto allocations and the number of plans that implement them, since those factors will determine actual investment flows more than the policy announcement itself.

According to the Investment Company Institute, defined contribution (DC) assets stood at $12.2 trillion on March 31, with $8.7 trillion in 401(k)s. That base means even a 0.10% default inside qualified default investment alternatives, such as target date funds or collective investment trusts, would theoretically amount to $12.2 billion if adopted across the DC universe.

A quarter of plans deploying a 0.25% sleeve would equate to roughly $7.6 billion in structural bids sourced from payroll contributions and employer matches. The size of these modeled flows turns on two levers that plan sponsors control, the default percentage and the share of plans that implement it.

The policy context matters for fiduciaries. On May 28, the Labor Department rescinded its 2022 crypto compliance release that had warned fiduciaries to exercise “extreme care,” removing a key chill around menu design, per the agency’s release. The new order layers on top, instructing staff to craft avenues for access within ERISA rules.

As PLANADVISER reported, the work now shifts to guidance and product plumbing, including how DC plans can hold crypto via regulated wrappers and how recordkeepers map those positions in plan portals.

Distribution will run through defaults, where most dollars live. Target date funds dominate participant flows and house the qualified default for many plans. As MarketWatch reported last month, large managers have already begun adding private-market sleeves to new TDF designs.

That same structure can host a small crypto sleeve inside a diversified glide path, and the paycheck cadence turns that sleeve into a steady primary-market bid for the underlying ETFs that hold spot Bitcoin or Ethereum. The result goes beyond a single surge toward a programmatic flow that arrives on payroll cycles and rebalancing dates.

How much could 401(k)s bring to crypto?

The glide path math frames realistic ranges for 2026. Using ICI’s DC base, a 0.10% default across 10% of assets points to about $1.22 billion of crypto demand. A 0.50% default across 25% of assets points to about $15.3 billion, while a 1.00% default across half the market would reach about $61 billion.

Adoption → / Default ↓ 0.10% 0.25% 0.50% 1.00%
10% of DC assets $1.22B $3.05B $6.10B $12.20B
25% of DC assets $3.05B $7.63B $15.25B $30.50B
50% of DC assets $6.10B $15.25B $30.50B $61.00B
100% of DC assets $12.20B $30.50B $61.00B $122.00B

Modeled flows using $12.2T US defined-contribution base; values are theoretical and illustrative.

If sponsors weight sleeves toward Bitcoin at launch, Ethereum still absorbs a measurable share once ETH ETFs are included on platforms, though the split depends on investment policy statements and recordkeeper support. These figures are mechanical translations of defaults and adoption into dollars, not forecasts of market impact.

Risk controls and fees remain core to the debate. Per The Washington Post, proponents view more menu choice as portfolio diversification, while critics warn that valuation, liquidity and costs require careful design for a retirement context. Kiplinger’s overview adds that sponsors may route exposure through managed accounts or TDFs rather than stand-alone options, a choice that centralizes due diligence and participant communication.

For crypto markets, the mechanism matters. If plans fund sleeves through spot ETFs, new contributions translate to primary creations when shares exceed inventory, which feeds through to underlying coin demand via authorized participants.

That transmission channel ties adoption inside DC plans to the ETF primary market rather than secondary swings, which is why the default percentage embedded in TDFs and CITs will matter more than menu headlines.

The next milestones sit with agency guidance, product filings, and recordkeeper integrations, then plan committee updates to investment policy statements. The flows, if implemented, would arrive on a schedule, and the order moves the 401(k) discussion from permissions to allocation math.

The post Trump 401k order could drive up to $122 billion into Bitcoin, Ethereum through default flows appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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