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The Popular $100K Year-End Goal for Bitcoin Has Less Than 10% Probability in Options Market

  • The way BTC options trading on Deribit are currently priced suggests a 9.58% chance of prices rising above $100,000 by Dec. 27.
  • The possibility of prices rising to $82,000 is higher, according to one observer.
  • Options market probabilities can change quickly with market conditions.
UnmuteUptober Forming Amid Rising Stablecoin Liquidity and Bitcoin Transactions01:01Bitcoin Breaks $64K While Gold Soars00:56ETH/BTC Ratio Slid to Lowest Since April 202100:57Is Bitcoin Losing Its Bullish Momentum?As sophisticated and retail investors rally around the possibility of bitcoin's (BTC) price surging to at least $100,000 by the year-end, the options market tied to the cryptocurrency assigns a low probability of such a surge materializing.

At press time, the way options were priced on dominant exchange Deribit showed a 9.58% probability of BTC topping the $100,000 mark by the end of December, according to data source Deribit Metrics.Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right but not the obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A call option confers the right to buy, representing a bullish bet, while a put protects against downside price swings.Options-based probabilities of BTC trading above various price levels on Dec. 27 (Deribit) (Deribit)The near 10% figure may seem puzzling to the bulls, given the market has moved beyond the supply overhang fears of the second and third quarters and is reportedly on an bullish trajectory, largely due to the Federal Reserve's renewed bias for interest rate cuts.

That said, it seems consistent with the steady bitcoin implied volatility, suggesting that market participants don't expect wild moves in the short term.Deribit's bitcoin implied volatility index (DVOL), which shows expected price turbulence over 30 days in annualized terms, remains locked between the three-month range of 50% to 60%, well below the 2024 high of 85% hit in March.Options-implied probabilities are calculated by using the Block-Scholes model or other pricing models that take into account factors like current spot market price, strike price, time to expiration, volatility, and the risk-free rate. Options-based probabilities are positively correlated with implied volatility: The greater the volatility, the higher the odds of bitcoin hitting certain levels.

$82K realistic possibilitySeveral traders recently told CoinDesk that prices could rise to around $80,000 by the end of the year, irrespective of who wins the pivotal U.S. election, due Nov. 5.The options market does suggest a possibility of a 22% price swing in either direction by the end of December, which means scope for a rally above $80,000 by the year-end.

"The current market implied volatility of BTC at-the-money options expiring on Dec. 27 is 54%, which means that in the best-case scenario, the price of BTC will rise by more than 22% to around $82,000 by the end of the year," Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at crypto financial platform BloFin told CoinDesk."However, volatility is bi-directional, so an equivalent drop cannot be ruled out either," Ardern said.Probabilities are just probabilitiesOptions market probabilities can change quickly with market conditions, meaning the odds of a move to $100,000 by the year-end could improve if implied volatility jumps and prices set new highs.

The impending U.S. presidential election due on Nov. 5 could have far-reaching regulatory implications for the digital assets industry and could inject volatility into the market. Currently, the supposedly-pro crypto Republican candidate is ahead of his rival, Democrat Kamala Harris, in election polls. The election result will be declared on Nov. 8."A Harris or Trump victory is not fully priced in and crypto investors need to be ready for a lot of volatility either way. This reminds me of biotech stocks on the dates the FDA determines if the drugs are approved. These stocks either fly or crash on those days and you can typically bet something volatile will happen," Alexander Blume, CEO of the SEC-registered digital assets advisory Two Prime, said in an email.

Blume added that a Harris win wouldn't be positive, at least for some time, as traders anticipating a Trump victory could square off their leveraged bets, injecting bearish volatility into the bitcoin market.Edited by Parikshit Mishra.

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  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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