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Short-term holder supply sees profitability crash to 2% as tariff fears bite

Short‑term holder supply in profit measures the share of coins held for fewer than 155 days whose last on‑chain movement occurred at a price below the current spot. Since these coins are statistically the most mobile, the metric is an effective thermometer for near‑term selling pressure: when the percentage is high, a larger share of speculative wallets sits on latent gains that can be realized quickly; when it collapses, the same cohort is underwater and historically becomes more price‑sensitive to the downside.

At the start of the year, 54.76 % of short‑term supply was in profit, with Bitcoin trading near  $94,400. A two‑week rally pushed the share to 95 % on  Jan. 17 while the spot rate peaked above  $104,000, leaving almost every coin acquired since mid‑September in the green. However, the euphoric reading proved transitory.

By  Feb. 20, after a swift $5,800 retracement, profitable short‑term supply fell to 67.82 %. The real capitulation arrived in April as tariff headlines sparked cross‑asset risk aversion. Bitcoin slid from  $82,500 on  April 2 to an intra‑month low of  $78,400 on April 6; the percentage of short‑term coins in profit collapsed from 12.02 % to a YTD low of 2.07 %. On those dates, less than one in 50 recently moved coins carried an unrealized gain, a condition previously observed only during panic liquidations in 2022 and the week of FTX’s crash in November  2024.

short-term holders supply in profitGraph showing the percentage of Bitcoin’s short-term holder supply in profit from Jan. 1 to Apr. 16, 2025 (Source: Checkonchain)

The market then attempted a rebound. A White House carve‑out that spared smartphones, laptops, and chip‑making equipment from the 145 % reciprocal tariff schedule briefly lifted risk appetite. This caused Bitcoin to rebound to  $84,600 on  April 14, and the profitable share of short‑term supply recovered to a high of 26.39 %.

short-term holder supply in profit/loss ratioGraph showing Bitcoin’s short-term holder supply in profit/loss ratio from Jan. 1 to Apr. 16, 2025 (Source: Checkonchain)

Long‑term holders tell a very different story. Their supply has remained essentially fully profitable all year: 100 % through the first quarter and 99.90 % even after the April drawdown. This divergence shows that recent volatility is a short‑horizon phenomenon driven by traders who entered near the cycle top; coins accumulated before November  2024 still carry a large cushion compared to the current spot price.

long-term holder supply in profitGraph showing the percentage of Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply in profit from Jan. 1 to Apr. 16, 2025 (Source: Checkonchain)

The path of short-term holder supply maps cleanly onto Bitcoin’s spot price. When the price set its year‑to‑date high, virtually every coin bought since the ETF approval rally was profitable; once macro stress hit, more than 90 % of those same coins moved underwater. Such swings matter because on‑chain spending patterns show that short‑term wallets are responsible for the majority of intraday sell pressure during corrections. The steep April washout, accompanied by a record $1 billion liquidation day and a two‑point drop in the funding rate curve, matches historical capitulation signatures that have often preceded local price bottoms.

Macro conditions explain why the recovery has been hesitant. Container‑booking data reveal a 64 % collapse in US imports and a 30 % drop in exports after the March tariff escalation, feeding fears of an earnings shock that weighs on all risk assets. The same data set has sparked debate over whether corporate treasuries will add Bitcoin as a tariff hedge, but flows into spot ETFs remain muted. Until clarity emerges on the trajectory of US-China negotiations, short‑term holders face a narrower window to exit breakeven trades, capping upside follow‑through.

The collapse in short‑term holder profitability has two immediate consequences. First, it removes a large block of latent supply: wallets sitting on losses are statistically less likely to market‑sell, so day‑to‑day offer depth thins out when the metric drops into single digits. That helps explain why the spot slipped below $79,000 only briefly on  April 6 before rebounding, as there simply was not enough profit‑taking inventory to meet bid support once liquidations cleared.

Second, it sets an invisible ceiling: as price claws back toward the $87,000–$90,000 cost‑basis band for coins bought in February and March, those underwater wallets regain parity and often sell into strength, creating overhead resistance. The market, therefore, enters a reflexive zone where each $1,000 of upside converts roughly 60,000 to 70,000 STH coins from loss to profit, gradually replenishing offer books and tempering rallies until new external demand absorbs the flow.

The near‑perfect profitability of long‑term supply is essentially a legacy of the spot ETF buying spree that accelerated from July through December  2024. ETF issuers attracted $35.5 billion in net flows by April 16, with most of those coins custodied at an average acquisition price between $55,000 and $75,000. The largest inflows we’ve seen during Bitcoin’s ATH have mostly aged past the 155-day threshold and graduated into the long-term cohort, locking in double-digit gains. This ETF‑driven migration helps keep the long‑term holder profitability ratio pinned near 100 %, even as the spot price corrects and reinforces the structural supply scarcity that underlies Bitcoin’s broader bullish bias.

The post Short-term holder supply sees profitability crash to 2% as tariff fears bite appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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