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Record compression in implied volatility sets up next big move for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s ascent to its all-time high unfolded against a very unusual backdrop: steadily compressing volatility. While most markets tend to exhibit rising implied volatility as prices push higher, Bitcoin has done the opposite, especially in recent months.

This behavior is perfectly captured by the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV), a metric that tracks the implied volatility of Bitcoin over a fixed horizon based on options pricing.

BVIV is derived from the implied volatility surface of Deribit’s BTC options. Specifically, it calculates a time-weighted average of the 30-day implied volatility across a range of out-of-the-money puts and calls, adjusted for liquidity and skew.

Functionally, BVIV serves as Bitcoin’s version of the VIX: a real-time measure of expected volatility over the coming month. A higher BVIV reading implies that the market anticipates larger price swings, while a lower reading reflects expectations of calm.

Since September 2022, BVIV has ranged from a high of 96.6 during the FTX collapse to a low of 36.3, first recorded in August 2023 and recently matched in late July 2025. The full-sample correlation between BVIV and Bitcoin’s price is slightly negative at -0.13, meaning implied volatility has tended to ease somewhat as the price climbs.

However, that relationship has become materially stronger in recent months: the 12-week rolling correlation between BVIV and BTC price reached -0.45 in early June 2025 and has remained in that range through early August.

The shift is notable because it points to structural changes in how volatility is priced. Historically, rapid BTC rallies, like those seen in 2017 and 2021, often came with expanding volatility as traders piled into upside calls and hedgers paid up for protection.

In contrast, the current environment features a mature options market, deeper liquidity, and a surge in short-volatility strategies across institutional desks. This structural change has allowed BTC to rise sharply without triggering a corresponding spike in implied volatility.

Recent data further confirms this disconnect. During the week ending August 4, Bitcoin closed at $115,050.91, having ranged between $109,200 and $121,000 over the previous five weeks. At the same time, the BVIV fell to 36.3, just 0.01 below its all-time low. Realized volatility over the past month stands at approximately 24%, putting the implied-realized spread at 12 percentage points, among the widest of the past two years.

This setup has critical implications. First, it suggests a market that is aggressively short volatility. Dealers and structured product desks are increasingly comfortable selling premium, assuming the BTC market will remain range-bound or trend gently upward.

The narrow spreads and flat term structure reflect a belief that no major directional catalyst is imminent. Second, the funds that rely on volatility inputs to size exposure can now hold more BTC per unit of risk. This introduces a self-reinforcing feedback loop: as implied vol compresses, systematic flows increase, further stabilizing the market until a shock occurs.

There’s also a tactical interpretation. When implied volatility hits record lows while price hovers near all-time highs, historical precedent suggests an elevated probability of abrupt reversal or breakout. Prior BVIV troughs (like those in August 2023 and February 2024), were followed within two to three months by spikes above 55 and spot moves exceeding 18% in either direction.

This is not a prediction of reversal, but rather a warning that the options market is currently pricing in far less movement than has typically occurred following such conditions.

bitcoin implied volatility index BVIVGraph showing Bitcoin’s implied volatility index (BVIV) from Dec. 5, 2022, to Aug. 7, 2025 (Source: TradingView)

With volatility low and directional conviction high, options are cheap relative to realized price swings. This creates opportunities for those seeking to accumulate long exposure to volatility itself, particularly through longer-dated call spreads, strangles, or calendar structures. The current setup offers consistent carry for market makers but elevates the risk of a gamma squeeze if flows suddenly reverse.

The emerging picture is one of a maturing, but potentially overconfident, market. Bitcoin’s ability to float above $110,000 without sparking a jump in BVIV reflects improved liquidity, deeper institutional participation, and more sophisticated volatility selling.

But history suggests that such periods are finite. Whether through a regulatory surprise, macro shock, or unexpected sell-off, the next expansion in volatility is likely to be sharp because the premium currently being collected for taking that risk is vanishingly small.
For now, the volatility floor has held. But if the past is any guide, compression this extreme rarely persists for long.

The post Record compression in implied volatility sets up next big move for Bitcoin appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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