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Quiet mempool and flat volume could mean limited fuel for Bitcoin’s breakout above $100k

With Bitcoin attempting to break the crucial $95,000 to $96,000 threshold, it faces significant headwinds rooted in an increasingly dormant on-chain environment.

Although the price has hovered optimistically close to the critical $100,000 barrier, stagnant blockchain activity metrics show certain vulnerabilities that could hinder further upside.

According to data from Checkonchain, daily on-chain transfer volume remains near the $10 billion mark, aligning almost perfectly with its 365-day mean. This is a clear indication that transactional demand remains tepid.

Sharp increases in on-chain throughput marked previous bullish phases, but the current scenario reflects minimal fresh transactional activity, effectively capping potential momentum.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s mempool (the main indicator of transaction backlog and network demand) has been shallow, sustaining only about three to four blocks’ worth of pending transactions. This contrasts starkly with historical breakout periods, where the mempool swelled significantly amid heightened transactional urgency.

bitcoin mempoolPending transactions in the Bitcoin mempool on May 6, 14:35 UTC (Source: Mempool.space)

Active address metrics corroborate the lethargy seen in on-chain volume and transaction counts. In the past 30 days, daily active addresses averaged around 930,000, with recent fluctuations marking multi-month lows dipping occasionally below 800,000, a departure from the activity typically associated with bullish enthusiasm.

Without an uptick in new or returning user interactions, Bitcoin is increasingly dependent on existing holders to drive the market upward. This dependency often translates into weaker buying pressure, particularly at significant resistance levels where profit-taking from stale holders may dominate.

Bitcoin Active AddressesActive addresses on the Bitcoin network from May 6, 2024, to May 5, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

Bitcoin’s velocity, which shows the rate at which coins change hands, seems to compound these pressures. Data from CryptoQuant shows velocity remains stagnant around 13.0, showing that coins are moving through the Bitcoin ecosystem more slowly.

Bitcoin VelocityBitcoin’s year-to-date (YTD) velocity on May 6, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

Moreover, the investor sentiment backdrop provides limited comfort. Although roughly 400,000 BTC recently transitioned into long-term holder (LTH) status in the past month, suggesting a tightening supply, this shift is double-edged. Historically, significant movements into LTH status coincide with phases of market inertia rather than explosive growth as investors brace for prolonged sideways movements.

bitcoin LTH supply changeYTD 30-day net change in Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply on May 6, 2025 (Source: Checkonchain)

Additionally, Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cost-basis of $93,500 almost perfectly mirrors the current spot price, adding further technical and psychological weight. This price alignment amplifies the risk of forming a technical lower-high scenario on the weekly charts, particularly if bid support fails to materialize decisively in the next few weeks.

short-term holder realized price bitcoinYTD short-term holder realized price on May 6, 2025 (Source: Checkonchain)

Exchange inflow data offers additional cautionary signals, averaging approximately 32,700 BTC daily over the last month. These numbers represent neither panic selling nor aggressive accumulation: they reflect a neutral and disinterested market.

This middle-ground sentiment most likely won’t provide sufficient fuel to propel Bitcoin past resistance clusters near $100,000, where approximately 15% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply currently resides in unrealized losses, ready to offload at break-even points.

Bitcoin Exchange Inflow (Total)Total Bitcoin inflow to exchanges from May 6, 2024, to May 5, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

Previous episodes of muted activity have typically led to market frustration, culminating in sudden downside corrections or extended periods of price stasis, both of which are demoralizing for bullish investors hoping for rapid ascents.

Bitcoin will likely escape this inertia when transfer volume, ETF turnover, and active addresses spike in tandem. Increased velocity and mempool depth, followed by increased movement in the derivatives market, would certainly bolster confidence.

Derivatives themselves have seen sharp spikes and drops in activity in the past month, indicating volatile speculative fervor, but weren’t enough to keep BTC above $95,000. But without all these signals materializing together, the likelihood increases that Bitcoin might succumb to a lower-high formation on the weekly chart that could push it back to as low as $86,000.

The current state of transactional inertia acts as a barrier to Bitcoin’s immediate upside potential. Unless significant on-chain activity resumes, the market’s aspirations of surpassing and sustaining Bitcoin’s price above $100,000 may remain out of reach in the short term.

The post Quiet mempool and flat volume could mean limited fuel for Bitcoin’s breakout above $100k appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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