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No, Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges are not inherently bullish for crypto

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Traders say the record-low number of BTC held on exchanges is a bull signal, but data suggests otherwise.

Crypto analysts on X (the social media platform formerly known as Twitter) and in YouTube interviews have been abuzz with talk about the trend of Bitcoin leaving centralized exchanges.

On Aug. 29, the quantity of Bitcoin (BTC) held within exchanges saw a decline, reaching its lowest point since January 2018. While various factors might underlie this movement, experts analyzing blockchain data often interpret the shift as a positive indicator. Traders are now questioning what might have been causing Bitcoin’s inability to break above $31,000 since this price action doesn’t align with their view that fewer coins on exchanges is bullish for the BTC price.

The perspective on the decline of Bitcoin held at centralized exchanges stems from the notion that when traders withdraw their coins, it signals a bullish sentiment. This is typically associated with a strategy of holding assets in self-custody for the long haul.

Although these suppositions lack conclusive evidence, their persistence likely stems from historical precedent. However, establishing a relationship between these events and a specific cause remains elusive, regardless of the frequency of such occurrences. While buying on exchanges might necessitate depositing fiat currency beforehand, the reverse is not necessarily true.

Data fails to show correlation between on-chain metrics and Bitcoin price action

Data from blockchain transactions displays a consistent reduction in Bitcoin deposits on exchanges since mid-May. Concurrently, Bitcoin’s price trajectory fails to offer substantial indications of a bullish upswing, with the exception of a brief surge in mid-June that coincided with BlackRock's submission of an application for a spot exchange-traded fund.

39cc33fb-5d81-4efe-8ffc-9ef264928b6f.pngBitcoin aggregate exchange net position change, in BTC. Source: Glassnode

It’s worth noting that the period encompassing a 30% surge from March 12 to March 19 witnessed an increase in deposits on exchanges, contrasting the predictions of on-chain analysis. Despite this contradiction, instances of influencers addressing the weaknesses in these enduring myths are scarce. This could be attributed to the simplicity of linking deposits on exchanges to an augmented inclination for selling.

Certainly, all indicators are prone to occasional inaccuracies, and depending solely on on-chain analysis to dictate market trends is unwise. Yet, the notion that withdrawals from exchanges are predominantly earmarked for transfer to cold storage lacks substantial grounding and exists largely as a hypothetical proposition. For example, there are three possible reasons that explain reduced deposits on exchanges unrelated to a diminished short-term selling intent.

Bitcoin holders shifted to a reliable custody solution

The foremost explanation for Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges not necessarily indicating a decrease in short-term selling pressure is the burgeoning trust in custody solutions. This implies that these coins might have been acquired in the past, and only recently has the owner felt at ease moving them. Notably, reputable custodians like Prime Trust took investors by surprise when it sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Delaware due to a shortage in customer funds. Additionally, a staggering sum of approximately $35 million in crypto assets was pilfered from Atomic Wallet users in June. The prevailing lack of trust in custody solutions could elucidate the cautious approach investors adopted before initiating withdrawals from exchanges.

Investors have lost confidence in centralized exchanges

On June 5, the Securities and Exchange Commission launched a legal suit against Binance, alleging the offering of unregistered securities. Just a day following the Binance lawsuit, the commission turned its focus to Coinbase on analogous grounds, contending that prominent altcoins provided by the exchange meet the criteria for securities. Further compounding matters, an Aug. 2 report from Semafor disclosed that United States Justice Department officials expressed apprehensions about a Binance indictment triggering a run on the exchange, akin to the events surrounding FTX in November 2022. These regulatory actions may have influenced users’ decisions to keep their deposited coins away from exchanges, irrespective of their selling intentions, thus rendering the withdrawals unrelated to price fluctuations.

Decreasing interest from buyers could balance out the trend

Even if one postulates that the majority of the Bitcoin departing from exchanges is indeed headed to cold wallets, implying holders have a reduced propensity to engage in short-term selling, the demand facet of the equation has encountered its own set of challenges. For instance, a search for “buy Bitcoin” on Google Trends has struggled to surpass 50% of its previous two-year peak.

f468682e-c09b-4705-bebf-e0be036dcec8.pngGoogle Trend searches for “buy Bitcoin” worldwide. Source: Google

Similarly, Bitcoin’s spot trading volume has averaged a modest $7 billion per day in August, representing less than half the trading activity observed between January and March.

Bitcoin adjusted daily volume, USD. Source: Messari and Kaiko

As a result, the data underscores a waning interest from buyers, which in turn mirrors Bitcoin’s lack of bullish momentum. This parallel trend aligns with the decrease in the number of coins being deposited on exchanges. Consequently, despite Bitcoin’s exchange deposits plummeting to levels last seen in 2018, the effect on the supply-demand equilibrium is negligible, owing to the subdued trading activity that has prevailed.

Ultimately, while on-chain metric analysis might provide foundational support for the notion of coins transitioning to the possession of long-term holders, this viewpoint offers scant backing in terms of price dynamics, as the movement may reflect a broader reluctance to actively trade the asset.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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