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New BTC miner capitulation? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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Bitcoin miners face a shakeout, one metric warns as the November monthly close looms for BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC) prepares to exit a grim November just above $16,000 — what could be on the menu for BTC price this week?

In a time of what analyst Willy Woo has called “unprecedented deleveraging,” Bitcoin is far from out of the woods after losing over 20% this month.

The impact of the FTX implosion remains unknown, and warning signs continue to flow in even after the first wave of crypto business bankruptcies.

In particular this week, eyes are on miners, who are seeing profits squeezed by falling spot prices and surging hash rates.

Upheaval is in the air, and should another “capitulation” among miners occur, the entire ecosystem could be in for a further shock.

As “max pain” looms for the average hodler, Cointelegraph takes a look at some of the main factors affecting BTC/USD in the short term.

Bitcoin miners due “capitulation” — Analyst

Like others, Bitcoin miners are seeing a major squeeze when it comes to selling accumulated BTC at a profit.

It remains to be seen exactly how much financial pain the average miner is in, but one classic metric is preparing to call “capitulation” once more.

Just months after the last such period, Hash Ribbons is warning that conditions are again becoming unsustainable.

Hash Ribbons uses two moving averages of hash rate to infer conclusions about miner participation in the Bitcoin network. Crossovers of the trend lines denote capitulatory and recovery phases.

For Kripto Mevismi, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the time is approaching for the former to reappear.

“So right now bitcoin difficulty is really high for miners so that means; costs are getting higher and doing business in this kind of environment is getting harder,” he wrote in a blog post:

“That’s why miners do not work in full force. If they have efficient- new generation mining machines, they put them into work but that's all. Inflation is high and people feels effect of living costs, bitcoin price is declining, mining cost and difficulty is getting higher. Tough environment for miners.”
9ff93976-e815-434e-bf69-bfb9a343aa1c.pngBitcoin Hash Ribbons chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

Kripto Mevismi added that a significant change in mining difficulty could help the situation.

Estimates from BTC.com for the next adjustment on Dec. 6 put the difficulty drop at 6.4% at the time of writing. Should it go to fruition, it will be the largest such drop since July 2021.

BTC.com and others likewise estimate that hash rate is now declining from record levels as miners wind down operations.

3e5b784e-a86e-411a-9ff4-2825bc481bd6.pngBitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

BTC/USD eyes volatility into monthly close

BTC/USD managed to stave off significant weekly losses at the latest candle close on Nov. 27.

At around $16,400, the weekly close was a whisker higher than the previous week, with the pair still circling two-year lows, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

ebfadd4c-056f-4c8f-b3b4-cb806e0c656c.pngBTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

With a lack of volatility characterizing intraday price action, traders and analysts remain cautious about the next step.

“It’s a long holiday weekend so expect things to get interesting as we move towards the Weekly and Monthly close,” on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators wrote in part of a tweet last week.

A subsequent post reiterated that the Nov. 30 close would likely spark fresh instability, with BTC/USD currently 21.25% down versus the start of the month.

This makes November 2022 Bitcoin’s worst November since its previous bear market year in 2018, data from Coinglass confirms.

7d064604-a320-4ca1-8a98-4658b0e8d464.pngBTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

On shorter timeframes, popular trader Crypto Tony, meanwhile, highlighted $16,000 as a key zone to flip for higher levels to enter next, while keeping mindful of the longer-term trend.

b23b1532-2f29-43d7-b425-fe18143ec4dd.pngBTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ Twitter

“Lower highs along with consolidating below a major resistance zone. If you want to enter safely, wait for a flip of the lows,” he summarized at the weekend.

7f609604-9de6-45ee-800d-3acabbadffca.pngBTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ Twitter

As Cointelegraph extensively reported, Bitcoin’s next bear market bottom is the discussion point of the moment at present, and certain targets have become more popular than others.

One vocal commentator calling for further downside, Il Capo of Crypto, thus reiterated his opinion that $12,000 could be next for BTC/USD.

Highlighting the relationship between perpetual futures trading volume and spot price, he warned that the current market structure was not supportive of further gains.

“12000-14000 is likely. 40-50% drop for altcoins,” he stressed.

Under the Bitcoin sea, hodlers accumulate

Big or small, the population of the Bitcoin ecosystem is “aggressively” adding to its BTC exposure this month.

In a positive sign for a future supply squeeze — where demand comes up against a larger portion of illiquid supply — accumulation appears to be gathering pace.

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, it is retail investors mostly responsible for the current trend.

The smaller investors, referred to variously as “crabs” and “shrimps” depending on wallet balance, are increasing in numbers.

“Bitcoin Shrimps (< 1$BTC) have added 96.2k $BTC to their holdings since FTX collapsed, an all-time high balance increase. This cohort now now hold over 1.21M $BTC, equivalent to 6.3% of the circulating supply,” Glassnode showed in a Twitter thread about the phenomenon.

f48a28ec-9a7a-44cd-8135-95c30c4e0f10.pngBitcoin shrimp net position change chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

A further post noted:

“Crabs (up to 10 $BTC) have also seen aggressive balance increase of 191.6k $BTC over the last 30-days. This is a convincing all-time-high, eclipsing the July 2022 peak of 126k $BTC/month.”
1b642b93-48a7-4ab2-a88d-ace0da7826a8.pngBitcoin "crab" net position change chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, part of the increase in smaller wallet numbers could be down to exchange users withdrawing funds to private storage.

Woo flags inbound “max pain”

For Willy Woo, the analyst behind popular statistics resource Woobull, on-chain metrics are pointing to Bitcoin’s next macro bottom being imminent.

Highlighting three of them this weekend, Woo showed that for all intents and purposes, Bitcoin is behaving exactly as it did in the pit of previous bear markets.

The portion of the BTC supply held at an unrealized loss, for example, is approaching macro lows, a phenomenon covered by the “Max Pain” model.

“Bitcoin bottom is getting close under the Max Pain model. Historically BTC price reaches macro cycle bottoms when 58%-61% of coins are underwater (orange). Green shading adjusts for the coins locked up inside GBTC Trust,” Woo explained alongside a chart.

41c90ed0-01df-48d3-9be7-5e2ada3631fd.pngBitcoin Max Pain annotated chart. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

Continuing, he noted that the MVRV Ratio value for BTC/USD is also targeting a “buy” zone, which has historically given investors maximum profit potential.

MVRV is Bitcoin’s market cap divided by realized cap — the aggregate price at which each Bitcoin last moved. The resulting number has delivered buy and sell zones corresponding to price extremes.

“MVRV ratio is deep inside the value zone,” Woo’s commentary stated:

“Under this signal we were in already bottoming (1) until the latest FTX white swan debacle brought us back into a buy zone (2).”
f896f649-1036-45d6-a78d-7d239d4fd920.pngBitcoin MVRV annotated chart. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

Woo’s third chart, Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), was recently covered by Cointelegraph.

“Use these charts at your own discretion, we are in an unprecedented time of deleveraging,” he added, cautioning that “Past cycles do not necessarily reflect future ones.”

Macro mood rocked by China protests

Some key economic data from the United States is due this week, but crypto analysts are more focused on China.

With an already fragile status quo hanging on inflation trends, unrest in the world’s factories could unsettle market performance, some warn.

China is in the grip of a wave of protests against the government’s policy on COVID-19, with multiple cities defying lockdowns to demand an end to “COVID zero.”

With this in mind, risk assets could be in for a rough ride if the situation spirals out of control.

“Crucial area of Bitcoin couldn’t break, so we're still consolidating within that range. On support now,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, explained:

“If this is lost, I’d expect new lows to be seen on the markets, probably depending on China & FTX contagion this week.”

Even mainstream media were warning of potential repercussions on the day, with John Toro, head of trading at exchange Independent Reserve, telling Bloomberg that “elevated contagion risk is being profiled into the cryptocurrency complex.”

Asian stock markets were modestly down on the day, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.6% and 0.75%, respectively, at the time of writing.

8f24c2b9-1031-4db8-be8d-4cefc163bac9.pngHang Seng Index 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

Bonus: Bitcoin bottoms in crude oil

On a related macro note, Bitcoin is now in line for “outperformance” in U.S. dollar terms, one well-known analyst has said.

Related: Bitcoin may need $1B more on-chain losses before new BTC price bottom

In WTI crude oil terms, BTC price action is already at a macro low — and history calls for a resurgence, which includes a significant appreciation trend against the USD.

“We’re finally at channel bottom,” TechDev confirmed over the weekend:

“Bitcoin’s crude oil (energy) purchasing power topped in April 2021. Now looks poised for another leg of outperformance (and rise in USD value).”
9fcfe2a3-8366-44a7-8371-3a860ed9e9d4.pngBTC/WTI annotated chart. Source: TechDev/ Twitter

An accompanying chart drew specific parallels to Bitcoin’s performance at the pit of the last bear market in late 2018.

As Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, TechDev is far from the only voice calling for an upside to characterize BTC price action going into the new year.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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    God bless Capital Crypto Recover Services for the marvelous work you did in my life, I have learned the hard way that even the most sensible investors can fall victim to scams. When my USD was stolen, for anyone who has fallen victim to one of the bitcoin binary investment scams that are currently ongoing, I felt betrayal and upset. But then I was reading a post on site when I saw a testimony of Wendy Taylor online who recommended that Capital Crypto Recovery has helped her recover scammed funds within 24 hours. after reaching out to this cyber security firm that was able to help me recover my stolen digital assets and bitcoin. I’m genuinely blown away by their amazing service and professionalism. I never imagined I’d be able to get my money back until I complained to Capital Crypto Recovery Services about my difficulties and gave all of the necessary paperwork. I was astounded that it took them 12 hours to reclaim my stolen money back. Without a doubt, my USDT assets were successfully recovered from the scam platform, Thank you so much Sir, I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover for any of your bitcoin recovery, digital funds recovery, hacking, and cybersecurity concerns. You reach them Call/Text Number +1 (336)390-6684 His Email: [email protected] Contact Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Via Contact: [email protected] His website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 01:15 tyleradams

    Hi. Please be wise, do not make the same mistake I had made in the past, I was a victim of bitcoin scam, I saw a glamorous review showering praises and marketing an investment firm, I reached out to them on what their contracts are, and I invested $28,000, which I was promised to get my first 15% profit in weeks, when it’s time to get my profits, I got to know the company was bogus, they kept asking me to invest more and I ran out of patience then requested to have my money back, they refused to answer nor refund my funds, not until a friend of mine introduced me to the NVIDIA TECH HACKERS, so I reached out and after tabling my complaints, they were swift to action and within 36 hours I got back my funds with the due profit. I couldn’t contain the joy in me. I urge you guys to reach out to NVIDIA TECH HACKERS on their email: [email protected]

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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