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Harris Likely to Pick Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro for Veep, Prediction Markets Say

This week in prediction markets:

  • Kamala Harris will likely pick Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate.
  • Harris has gained on Donald Trump on Polymarket but hasn't closed the gap, unlike in polls.
  • Traders are betting on the Olympic women's boxing controversy.
  • The Fed will cut rates fast and hard in September, say bettors
U.S. Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate by Tuesday, and prediction markets show a clear consensus on whom she'll pick.

Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, has the highest probability of getting the nod, according to traders on Polymarket, the crypto-based betting platform."Yes" shares for Shaprio were trading at 68 cents Monday during morning hours in New York, indicating the market sees a 68% chance he will be the Democratic nominee for vice president. Each share pays out $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency whose value is tied to the dollar) if the prediction comes true, and zero if not. The bets are programmed into a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Waltz trails behind Shapiro with 23% odds. All other listed candidates are showing single-digit probabilities. A total of $104 million has been bet on the Democratic vice presidential contract, making it Polymarket's third-largest by volume.Shapiro is popular among his constituents in a battleground state, with a 61% approval rating, according to a poll released by Fox News last month. Many on the left wing of the Democratic party dislike him for his support for Israel and school vouchers.PredictIt, a more traditional betting site where trades are settled in old-fashioned dollars, shows a similar pattern, with 66% odds for Shapiro and 26% for Waltz.

Polymarket, founded in 2020, has been enjoying a breakout year amid enthusiasm for election betting. Monthly volume more than tripled from June to $387 million in July, according to Dune Analytics.Prediction markets allow traders to bet on the outcomes of real-world events, from elections to sporting matches to the weather. Proponents say they are a more reliable measure of sentiment and source of forecasts than polls because bettors have money on the line and are strongly incentivized to do thorough research and express their true beliefs.Harris gains on TrumpThe last few weeks of prediction market sentiment and polling data show that the U.S. presidential race was less of a test of Donald Trump's popularity, and more of an expression of incumbent Joe Biden's unpopularity.

Polls indicate Harris has effectively closed the gap with Trump, and is now tied in polling aggregator 538's averages. Harris has the same momentum in prediction markets, but hasn't yet closed the gap.

Bettors on Polymarket are putting the race at 53-44 for Trump, with Harris up six percentage points in the past week.Traders are also putting their money on Harris flipping Trump on RealClear Polling's average, which currently has Trump at 47.7% versus Harris at 46.9%.

Markets that measure a second-order effect of Harris' surge are also feeling an effect.While a balance-of-power contract still has a Republican sweep as the highest-probability outcome at 30%, markets that call for Democrats to take the presidency and at least one house of Congress have all seen gains.Likewise, another contract that asks if Trump will win every swing state is down four percentage points in the last week, and 35 percentage points in the last month since Biden's gaffe-ridden performance debating Trump.The market is waiting for the first Trump-Harris debate to be confirmed, an event that could certainly move markets. Trump's camp has said that a debate with Harris scheduled for Sept. 10 on ABC has been "terminated" with Biden's departure, and instead proposed a debate a few days earlier on Republican-friendly Fox News – complete with a full arena audience.

So far the Harris campaign has said no, and the market agrees that she won't show up, pricing in a 37% chance of it happening before Oct. 15.

Culture-war betsThe International Olympic Committee says boxers Yu-Ting Lin, from Taiwan, and Imane Khelif, from Algeria, are biological females.

On Crypto Twitter, which remained skeptical of IOC claims, a meme quickly emerged about the easy money to be made betting on contestants accused of being men competing in women's sports.

But did this meme translate into a higher betting volume compared to other sports markets?Sort of.

A contract on Polymarket asking bettors to pick the outcome of the Olympic Women's Welterweight boxing competition, where Khelif is competing, has just over $60,000 in volume, which puts it squarely in the middle of sports contracts on the site.

Contracts asking bettors which country will win the most medals, and the outcome of basketball, soccer contests, men's tennis, or 100 meter dash all have significantly more market interest, with basketball leading the pack at $1.5 million.This makes sense because basketball and soccer are more popular than women's boxing, tennis has household names such as Novak Djokovic competing, and the photo-finish nature of the 100-meter dash brings out bettors' animal instincts.But the women's boxing contract still has much more volume than other well-known sports or personalities, like one asking about gymnast Simone Biles' – star of a recent Netflix documentary – medal count.If anything, controversy can be good for sports. Just look at the viewership ratings for the Olympics, which became a culture war flashpoint during the opening ceremony: they are way up.Rate cuts soon?The unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade made the Monday trading day a bloodbath for crypto, with over $1 billion in liquidations during Asia trading hours, pushing ether down 20% and bitcoin 15%, erasing gains made year-to-date. When markets opened in the U.S. the global selloff intensified.All this has accelerated the conversation about rate cuts in the U.S. Earlier this year, a sizable minority of traders said cuts weren't going to be on the agenda, with the market giving close to a 60% chance of there being at most one.Now, bettors on Kalshi, the U.S.-regulated prediction market platform where trades are settled in dollars, are punting on a 100 basis point cut happening this year, and a 90% chance of the first cut happening after the September meeting.On Polymarket, bettors have upped the ante, giving the possibility of an emergency Fed meeting – defined as a meeting called outside the usual planned schedule – a 60% chance of happening.Interestingly, traders in traditional markets via interest rate futures have priced in a 100% chance of 50 basis points or more of Fed rate cuts by the bank's September meeting versus Polymarket, where bettors are seeing just a 66% chance of the same thing.If there's an encouraging signal from all of this for crypto, it's that bitcoin won't fall much more. Bitcoin traded below $50,000 during Asia business hours Monday before recovering. Kalshi bettors say it will go to $44,000 at its lowest before year's end, while Polymarket bettors are giving it a 56% chance that it won't go below $45,000 by the end of August.Edited by Marc Hochstein, Nikhilesh De and Stephen Alpher.

Source

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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