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Harris Leads Trump on Polymarket as DNC Begins, but They Got Tied Earlier Amid Volatility

This week in prediction markets:

  • Trump-Harris makes for a volatile market
  • RFK is seen dropping out by November, but probably won't endorse Trump
  • China's "bitcoin ban" is more complicated than Justin Sun thinks
Bettors trade volatile election marketsThis past weekend was an active one for Polymarket traders betting on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. They pushed down shares representing Kamala Harris' chances of winning the election by nearly 8 percentage points, leading to a brief tie between herself and Donald Trump, before she regained a 4-point lead (as of Monday morning U.S. time).

One theory on Trump's buoyancy despite polls shifting toward Harris is some traders are sticking with outdated assumptions from when President Joe Biden was still the expected Democratic nominee instead of Harris.On a recent episode of the political betting podcast Star Spangled Gamblers, one of the guests, a political gambler known as Gaeten Dugas, argued that the market wasn't correctly pricing in Trump's chances after Biden quit and needed to adjust.

"A Trump win was pretty well priced in with Biden being the candidate," he said. "Once I had convinced myself it was going to be [candidate] Kamala, then I thought that I was basically buying the no's at the highest price that they would be for Trump."It's important to note that Polymarket, which officially bans U.S. residents from using the platform, began the election with a significant premium for Trump, and it's tempting to dismiss its accuracy because of the embargo on Americans – the actual voters – as market participants.Another prediction market, PredictIt, which has U.S. regulators' blessing to operate, currently gives Harris a more significant edge against Trump.

(PredictIt)And, to be sure, prediction markets aren't perfect. PredictIt gave Hillary Clinton an 82% chance of beating Trump (she didn't) in 2016 – in line with New York Times models – and priced in only a 16% chance that Brexit would happen (it did) as polls closed in the U.K.

For now, Harris seems to have the lead in the race. RealClearPolling gives her a 1.4-percentage-point lead over Trump, while Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin model gives Harris a 2.5-percentage-point advantage. Whether that means PredictIt or Polymarket are more fairly priced is an open question.With the Democratic National Convention taking place this week in Chicago – the event where Harris will officially become the party's candidate – this could be a busy week for punters on prediction markets. And with leverage also coming soon to these markets, even more volatility may loom.

Prediction markets show end to RFK Jr.'s campaignRobert F. Kennedy Jr.'s presidential campaign has struggled to regain its momentum after getting close to 12% in the polls in February, with numbers now languishing around 8% to 9%.Prediction market bettors are more sour on RFK Jr. than pollsters: one Polymarket contract that asks bettors to predict his share of the popular vote is giving a 50% chance that he takes less than 1% of the overall vote, and only a 7% chance that he'll be able to match what the polls currently give him.

Bettors are also putting their money on him dropping out before November, with a 56% chance of that happening.Conservative commentator and former Fox News host Bill O'Reilly put it frankly on a recent show, calling the RFK Jr. campaign "done".“I told you from the very beginning that this was going nowhere,” O’Reilly recently said on his No Spin News podcast. “I told you, this was never going to work.”

This drop-out will likely not mean an endorsement of Donald Trump, despite a friendly call (which was later leaked by Kennedy's camp) in July after the assassination attempt on Trump. Recently, reports emerged that Kennedy attempted to meet with Kamala Harris to discuss a potential role in her administration, but he later stated he has "no plans to endorse" her and intends, he says, to "defeat" her instead.

Bettors are putting the chances of a Trump endorsement at 35%, which shows a fair amount of doubt that relations between the two candidates will improve.China's relationship with bitcoin is complicatedTron's Justin Sun recently posted on X: "China unbans crypto. What's the best meme for this?" which, in turn, fueled headlines like "Justin Sun’s Cryptic Post Sparks Crypto Community Speculation of China Lifting Bitcoin Ban" and "Justin Sun Sparks Rumours of China Lifting its Ban on Crypto."

Bettors on Polymarket are writing the prospect off almost entirely, giving it a 10% chance of happening before the end of the year.The question of whether bitcoin is banned in China is a complicated one, and there's no absolute answer.As CoinDesk reported earlier this year, while China has imposed significant restrictions on crypto activities, a court in Fujian province and a Chinese law firm have noted that certain actions, like holding and peer-to-peer trading, are not explicitly banned, highlighting legal gray areas that allow for continued crypto use.

Beijing just doesn't want to normalize crypto trading in-country because it poses a threat to its strict capital controls, which are designed to regulate the flow of money in and out of the country to prevent currency flight and maintain the stability of the yuan.This is also why mainland China traders aren't allowed to touch Hong Kong's crypto ETFs, which have unique in-kind redemption models.

Until there are significant monetary policy changes in China, crypto can't have a foothold.Edited by Nick Baker.

Source

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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