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Fed pauses interest rates, but Bitcoin options data still points to BTC price downside

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Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced a pause in interest rates, but Bitcoin options data still warns that a BTC price drop to $25,000 is possible.

Bitcoin's price has been pinned below $26,300 since June 10, reflecting a 14.8% correction in two months. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq tech stock market index gained 13.6% in the same period, indicating that investors are not exactly fleeing to the safety of cash and short-term debt. In fact, the demand for United States government bonds has been declining for the past six weeks.

U.S. 2-year government bond yield. Source: TradingView

The yield on two-year U.S. Treasurys, for example, increased from 3.80% on May 4 to 4.68% on June 14. Lower demand for debt instruments increases payouts, resulting in a higher yield. If the investor thinks that inflation will continue above target, the tendency is for those participants to demand a higher yield when trading bonds.

The U.S. Treasury is set to issue more than $850 billion in new bills between June and September. As additional debt issuance tends to cause higher yields, the market expects increased borrowing costs for families and businesses. Still, that does not explain why investors have been flocking to tech companies but avoiding Bitcoin (BTC), as depicted by the past two-month performance.

Eight consecutive weeks of crypto fund outflows

According to CoinShares' latest “Digital Asset Fund Flows Report,” the sector’s investment product outflows amounted to $88 million in the week ending on June 10. The substantial drawdown added to the ongoing eight-week streak of outflows, which now total $417 million.

The eight-week cumulative outflows for Bitcoin reached $254 million, representing approximately 1.2% of the total assets under management. Analysts at CoinShares have attributed this trend to monetary policy considerations, as interest rate hikes show no signs of slowing down, prompting investors to remain cautious.

Bitcoin has been trying to reclaim the $27,500 support for the past two weeks, but that might be harder than expected given the upcoming $600 million weekly options expiry on June 16.

A brief Bitcoin pump above $27,000 made bulls giddy

It is worth noting that the actual open interest for the options expiry will be lower since bulls concentrated their bets above $27,000. These traders likely got excessively optimistic after Bitcoin’s price gained 8% on June 6, erasing the losses that drove BTC down to $25,400.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for June 16. Source: Deribit

The 0.73 put-to-call ratio reflects the imbalance between the $350 million in call (buy) open interest and the $250 million in put (sell) options.

However, if Bitcoin’s price remains near $26,000 at 8:00 am UTC on June 16, only $27 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $27,000 or $28,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Related: Bitcoin ‘far larger’ than Binance or Coinbase, says Jan3 CEO: BTC Prague 2023

Bulls need Bitcoin price at $26,500 to avoid a $100 million loss

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on June 16 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies depending on the expiry price.

The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $24,000 and $25,000: 0 calls vs. 6,100 puts. Bears are in total control, profiting $145 million.
  • Between $25,000 and $26,500: 1,000 calls vs. 4,400 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $100 million.
  • Between $26,500 and $27,000: 2,200 calls vs. 2,800 puts. The net result is balanced between call and put instruments.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. This oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Still, traders should be cautious as the bears are currently in a better position for Friday’s weekly options expiry, favoring negative price moves. Thus, an eventual sharp correction below $25,000 should not be discarded.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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