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Ethereum traders show uncertainty ahead of today’s Shapella hardfork: Report

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Ether’s market performance and derivatives metrics have lagged behind Bitcoin, possibly due to traders’ expectation of heavy sell pressure after the Shapella upgrade.

The Ethereum network’s Shapella upgrade, scheduled for around 6:30 pm EST on April 12, has induced significant uncertainty among traders, according to a report by Kaiko.

The upgrade will enable staked-ETH withdrawals from the Beacon Chain for the first time since its launch in December 2020. According to previous estimates, the upgrade will add nearly 1.2 million to 3 million worth of ETH selling pressure in the first few weeks. This is one of the main reasons traders appear to be taking a cautious stance ahead of the upgrade.

Kaiko’s report shows that ETH is lagging behind BTC in spot and futures trading volumes, while options market data shows traders are actively adding short-term hedging positions.

Ether displays muted trading data

Ethereum market share in USD trading volume compared to Bitcoin declined to March 2021 lows near 30%, per Kaiko data, showing that Ether has "struggled to maintain pace" with Bitcoin spot volumes. During Ethereum's last big upgrade, The Merge, its market share relative to Bitcoin reached a high of 53%.

Similarly, the relative increase in the open interest (OI) volumes for Bitcoin has surpassed Ethereum considerably with the April 10 price surge above $30,000.

487f9497-8d11-4ce8-924b-f860a4b416dd.JPGOpen interest volumes for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Source: Kaiko

The ratio between Ethereum’s spot and perpetual trading volumes also reflects the lack of trading interest. The ratio has dropped below the levels attained before the last big upgrade in September 2022, the Merge.

Lastly, the options market also reflected the uncertainty around the upgrade. The report found that the implied volatility for Ethereum options contracts expiring in April has trended higher than all timelines for Bitcoin. It suggests that an increasing number of traders are looking to hedge their positions.

a86f96c3-89c8-4d68-b841-e4101acbcbb3.JPGEthereum and Bitcoin implied volatility. Source: Kaiko

When the demand for options increases, it implies that the market expects greater price swings in the underlying asset and, therefore, higher implied volatility. The report added,

“All ETH expiries have moved closely with one another while the longer BTC expiries have remained stable, again indicating that there is more uncertainty—particularly in the long term—in the ETH derivatives markets.”
c2bd411a-d571-4955-a07a-e548f5ed08dd.pngETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Related: Shapella could bring institutional investors to Ethereum despite risks

So far, Bitcoin’s price had increased 82.02% year-to-date compared to Ethereum’s 59.82% surge in the same period. The ETH/USD pair faces resistance at $2,000 from the technical and psychological point of view. The Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator, a momentum oscillator, has remained flat through Ether’s latest price rise, showing a lack of bullish momentum.

Ethereum’s falling market share compared to Bitcoin and muted trading interest relative to the Merge highlights the uncertainty in the market due to potential selling pressure after Shapella.

The lack of trading volumes and high options implied volatility can induce significant price volatility over the course of the month, especially when considering that sell pressure is expected to last for three to eight weeks after the upgrade.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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