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Ethereum price rally under question after ETH slams into resistance at $1.6K

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ETH price continues to encounter resistance at the $1,600 level, a potential sign that the current rally lacks sustainable momentum.

Ethereum (ETH) price is struggling to overcome resistance at $1,600 and this is the altcoin’s third attempt since September 2022. Some would say the 33% year-to-date rally could be interpreted as a failed opportunity to breach the $200 billion market capitalization mark.

7480e5f6-b268-4148-8835-eda551bbe935.pngEther/USD price index, 2-day. Source: TradingView

If Ethereum price were to break above $1,600, it would return Ether to a top-60 global tradable asset, surpassing giant multinational companies like Nike (NKE), Novartis (NVS), Cisco (CSCO) and Toyota (TM).

Unfortunately, at least for bullish traders, derivatives markets are not hinting that Ether will finally break the $1,600 resistance — at least, not until the U.S. Federal Reserve reverses its course of tightening the economy.

Bulls' frustrations can partially be explained by Silvergate Bank's $1 billion net loss in the latest quarter. The crypto-friendly bank laid off roughly 40% of its workforce on Jan. 5 and it now faces a class-action lawsuit over its FTX and Alameda Research dealings. The suit alleges that Silvergate aided and abetted FTX's fraudulent activities and the exchanges' breaches of fiduciary duty.

The negative newsflow continued on Jan. 17, as Japan's deputy director-general of the Financial Services Agency's Strategy Development and Management Bureau, Mamoru Yanase, argued that the crypto sector should face the same regulation as traditional banks and brokerages.

The fact that Ether continues to trade above $1,500 is a positive, but the most recent price pump closely followed an 8% gain by the Russell 2000 index. In addition, investors fear that data showing a reduction in inflation was the main driver behind the cryptocurrency market recovery, so any retreat in the stock market could trigger another wave of selling.

Consequently, investors believe that Ether could retrace its recent gains if the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates. Let's look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the surprise pump positively impacted investors' sentiment.

Ether’s 33% rally was not enough to instill confidence

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Meanwhile, professional traders prefer these instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates in a perpetual futures contract.

The two-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. However, when the futures trade at a discount versus regular spot markets, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers, which is a bearish indicator.

b11885c2-9390-4477-8dec-b67e9af0658f.pngEther 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The chart above shows that derivatives traders remain in "fear mode" because the Ether futures premium is below the 4% threshold. This data indicates the absence of leverage buyers' demand, although it does not signal that traders expect further adverse price action.

For this reason, traders should analyze Ether's options markets to understand whether investors are pricing higher odds of surprise adverse price movements.

Options markets are neutral, adding strength to the $1.6K resistance

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below -10%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

9f6f5eef-1fe2-434e-ba2b-da718d9ea211.pngEther 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

The delta skew improved considerably since Jan. 14, declining from a neutral-to-bearish positive 10% to a neutral options pricing. The movement signaled that options traders became more comfortable with downside risks since the 60-day delta skew stands at negative 2%.

Related: Bitcoin and Ethereum correct as Bitzlato take down, tech layoffs and economic worries dominate headlines

Whales and market makers are yet to become optimistic according to options markets, but the absence of fear after a 33% rally is encouraging. Both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing that the $1,600 resistance will continue to exert a negative impact on price.

In essence, a more effective measure from the FED is likely needed before crypto investors flip bullish — either signaling the interest rate hike is close to an end, or a shift on the strategy to curb inflation.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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