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Ether death cross threatens more downside as ETH price trades at a key support level

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ETH’s technical and on-chain indicators point toward further downside, but there is a silver lining.

Ether’s price fell this week, and several data points are beginning to suggest that further downside could be in store.

On July 24, Ether (ETH) experienced a drop close to its monthly low, reaching $1,825 amid Bitcoin’s (BTC) negative price action, as uncertainty loomed over macroeconomic conditions and a potential whale sell-off.

Several on-chain and technical indicators point to further downside in ETH prices. However, the extent of this downward movement could be limited, considering the profit levels of existing holders and the decrease in ETH’s liquid supply.

ETH on-chain analysis suggests more downside

Since the beginning of 2023, Ethereum’s network value-to-transaction value (NVT) metric has indicated that the asset may have been overpriced.

Glassnode’s NVT signal gauges the relative value of the Ethereum network by comparing the market price to the volume of on-chain transactions. A higher NVT reading implies that ETH could be trading at a premium.

The NVT chart from Glassnode reveals that the metric typically fluctuates between 30 and 80. However, at the start of 2023, it surged to three-year highs of 120 and has maintained higher levels since then. This suggests that either a pullback in price or an increase in Ethereum’s on-chain activity would be necessary to trigger a reset in this metric.

76cbb1c3-44fc-4347-a936-03cd483b8de9.pngEthereum NVT signal. Source: Glassnode

Nevertheless, the profit levels of short- and long-term holders suggest that the downturn could be restricted.

Ether’s negative price action usually reverses when the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric of short-term holders is negative, meaning short-term holders are in losses. It causes some weak hands to panic sell, allowing buyers to scoop up coins at a cheaper price.

Currently, the short-term NUPL ratio is close to neutral levels. However, there’s room for some downside based on historic levels.

Ether’s net unrealized profit/loss metric for short-term holders. Source: Glassnode

The realized profit/loss metric, which evaluates the relative profitability of ETH transfers, paints a similar picture. On-chain analytics firm Santiment wrote in its latest analysis that “the ratio of on-chain transaction volume in profit to loss is still favoring profit takes,” but not by much.

Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan added:

“If ETH drops a bit more from here and threatens the $1,700-$1,800 level again, panic sells would come pouring in to justify the buys.”

Similarly, the NUPL ratio of long-term holders is also ranging near 2019 and early 2020 peak levels, suggesting that a pullback is likely.

Ether’s NUPL metric for long-term holders. Source: Glassnode

The ETH supply on exchanges has dropped drastically since the Shapella upgrade in April. At the same time, the amount staked for validation of the proof-of-stake network has increased. The locked ETH in staking contracts decreased its liquid supply on exchanges, which is more susceptible to selling than staked ETH.

ETH’s realized price, which represents the fair value of the token based on the daily value moved on-chain, is currently at $1,507. In 2022, ETH quickly recovered below the realized price metric as the profit levels of long-term holders dropped into negative territory.

The on-chain metrics show that the price could suffer some selling pressure from short-term holders and panic selling from investors spooked by relatively lower levels of activity in 2023.

Nevertheless, the profit levels of short- and long-term holders suggest that the slump may not stretch far enough and the price could find support above the $1,500 level.

Related: Crypto investors cool on Bitcoin funds, turning to Ether and XRP

ETH/USD price analysis

Technically, the ETH/USD pair shows bearish risk in the short term with an impending death cross on the weekly scale.

Ether has witnessed only one death cross between the 50- and 200-period moving averages (MAs) on a weekly scale in the past in June 2019, after which its price dropped 60%.

f652cb26-a823-42a0-b4c1-c7cf5dad5c13.pngETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

On the daily chart, the ETH/USD pair threatens a fall toward the 200-day MA at $1,761, which also coincides with the lower highs from November 2022.

a77d4fd1-a0ad-4182-b46f-5be8870ab9f8.pngETH/USD daily charts. Source: TradingView

The derivatives data for ETH indicates that there has been no significant change in the open interest volume for futures contracts, which reflects the demand for these contracts. This suggests that traders are currently not showing much interest in the recent lackluster price action.

Looking at the options data from Deribit reveals that contracts worth $1.1 billion are set to expire on July 28. The positioning in the options market indicates a bullish bias, with a notable concentration of call options between $1,900 and $2,400.

As the expiration date approaches, it is likely that the price will remain subdued around the maximum pain level for options buyers, which is at $1,850.

Based on the on-chain and market indicators, it appears that Ether’s negative selling pressure could persist for a couple of weeks. However, there is potential for a strong influx of buyers, particularly at support levels of $1,700 and $1,500.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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