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ETFs now shape US Bitcoin trading more than spot exchanges

Bitcoin is entering a new phase of market structure, where spot ETFs are rivaling and, in some cases, outpacing spot exchanges in daily trading volume.

Over the past 30 days, aggregate turnover in spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $62.9 billion, just under 89% of the $70.8 billion across all spot BTC trading pairs globally. This growing parity shows a significant redistribution of liquidity toward regulated instruments and changes how price discovery, volatility, and institutional participation will evolve in the coming months.

While derivatives continue to dominate, with over $890 billion in notional traded during the same period, the rise of spot ETFs as a primary layer of liquidity marks a critical turning point. Until now, global spot exchanges, particularly Binance, Coinbase, Bitfinex, and Kraken, have formed the backbone of Bitcoin trading, absorbing institutional and retail flows alike. However, ETFs are now commanding attention from allocators and traders looking to manage exposure through more familiar products.

ETF daily volume averaged $2.99 billion between June 15 and July 15, outpacing global spot’s $2.36 billion on several key days. The most pronounced divergence occurred on July 11, when ETF volume hit $6.54 billion, 50% higher than that of spot exchanges. That same day, BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $953.5 million in new inflows, more than the combined daily volume of Bitfinex and Kraken.

etf flowsTable showing the inflows and outflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs from June 26 to July 14, 2025 (Source: Farside)

This is not an isolated anomaly. The ETF-to-spot turnover ratio crossed 100% on four of the last eight trading sessions in the past month. The seven-day moving average of this ratio has been climbing steadily since the beginning of the year, indicating a structural rather than transient shift.

A combination of macro and micro factors is driving the shift in dynamics. ETFs offer lower execution slippage for institutional blocks, eliminate exchange counterparty risk, and plug directly into US prime brokerage and securities lending infrastructure. These features make them especially attractive during periods of low volatility, when intraday swings are too narrow to justify crossing wide spreads on offshore venues.

ETF liquidity relies on authorized participants (AP), which are typically large financial institutions that create and redeem ETF shares by arbitraging price differences between the ETF and its underlying assets.

When an ETF trades above its net asset value (NAV), APs buy Bitcoin on exchanges and deliver it to the ETF in exchange for new shares, pocketing the arbitrage. When the ETF trades below NAV, it redeems shares and sells the underlying BTC back into the market.

This process has two critical effects. First, it routes more demand to US exchanges like Coinbase, where APs often source their BTC for creations. Coinbase has accounted for approximately 25% of global spot BTC volume during this period, reinforcing its position as the primary hedging venue for ETF participants. Second, the AP mechanism introduces intermittent demand spikes that can decouple ETF turnover from spot volume, especially when arbitrage capacity is constrained.

These structural imbalances were visible on July 1 and July 14. On both days, ETF flow was disproportionately low compared to spot volumes, despite Bitcoin trading above $120,000 on the latter. This shows the limits of arbitrage bandwidth and the possibility that ETF turnover may not always track immediate price discovery, particularly during early US trading hours.

On-chain settlement volumes remain subdued. The average number of daily transactions stood at 376,000, far below cycle peaks of over 600,000 seen in 2023 and 2024. This reinforces the view that ETFs are adding a synthetic liquidity layer on top of Bitcoin’s base settlement layer, enabling exposure without direct participation in the on-chain economy.

Bitcoin Transaction CountGraph showing the total number of Bitcoin transactions from Jan. 1, 2023, to July 14, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

The steady rise in ETF trading volume marks a shift in the structure of the Bitcoin market. While these funds don’t replace spot exchanges, they reshape the flow of liquidity, institutional access, and even the time zones of price discovery. Traditional exchanges remain vital for real-time price formation, especially in Asia-Pacific hours, but US ETFs are now anchoring market expectations during New York hours, potentially leading to more regional fragmentation in market behavior.

If this trend persists, volatility could cluster around ETF inflow/outflow cycles rather than macro headlines or funding resets. That would be a marked evolution in how Bitcoin trades, not as a 24/7 asset, but as one influenced by the tradfi calendar.

The post ETFs now shape US Bitcoin trading more than spot exchanges appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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