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US gov’t messed up my $250K Bitcoin price prediction: Tim Draper, Hall of Flame
Tim Draper’s first big Bitcoin prediction came off without a hitch, but he says the current administration is making his second one look bad.
Tim Draper is a prominent venture capitalist, the founder of Draper University and the creator of the Meet The Drapers television series. He invested early in Tesla, SpaceX and Coinbase and has 254,000 followers on X.
Let me get my second prediction to actually happen, and then well move on to other predictions, Tim Draper tells Hall of Flame, refusing to be drawn on price predictions for XRP and Ethereum.
This makes sense, given its been six years since he forecast that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by 2022.
Oops! I predicted $250k in 2022. My tweet last night was missing a zero. $250k is the number!
— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) April 13, 2018
Spoiler alert: It didnt.
Which is not to say it wont happen eventually, as Draper has been pretty far-sighted in the past.
Back in 2014, Draper scooped up around 30,000 Bitcoin for $19 million after the U.S. Marshals took down Silk Road. Fast forward to today, and those Bitcoin have increased 4,165% in value to be worth a whopping $810.5 million.
Around the same time, he made a prediction that Bitcoin would reach $10,000 in three years, and lo and behold, it hit that mark in 2017.
Draper explains that he only dropped the $250,000 prediction because people kept asking after he totally nailed his first Bitcoin price guess.
The only reason Ive given the second prediction was that the first one was so good. I had a lot of pressure to put another one out there, Draper declares.
He has politely requested a deadline extension on Bitcoin reaching a quarter of a million, with a timeline that would give a university lecturer a heart attack.
Give me until the end of June next year, he says.
Draper accuses the U.S. government of messing up his price prediction. He had expected the growth of blockchain to be reminiscent of the internet era, similar to when he made his earlier investments in companies like Hotmail and Skype.
He emphasizes the significant benefit that the United States reaped by maintaining a hands-off approach to overregulating the internet.
I expected a much more light touch, the way Bill Clinton was with the internet; they said, hey, we got the internet! We regulated the internet, and Bill Clinton smartly left it alone, and it was fantastic for the whole world.
I went on a rant. I actually said all these things. US Government is killing the golden goose of Silicon Valley. Regulations smother innovators. #freedom #trust https://t.co/dUk6s8nDcV
— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) May 8, 2023
Investing Alpha
Despite the media coverage, Draper doesnt spend his days making predictions; in fact, his schedule is quite packed.
At 65 years old, he remains highly active, renowned as a serial investor who chucked cash early in companies like Tesla, SpaceX, Coinbase, and, well … Theranos.
He enjoys playing basketball because it energizes him and puts him in an investment mindset.
When I play basketball, Im thinking about how I can get the defender to move one way, and then I’ll move another, he explains.
Draper claims he possesses alpha instincts both on the basketball court and in the investment world.
Im very aggressive; if I see something I like, I go right after it, he says.
I guess as an investor, I invest like a chess move because Im always evaluating not just the entrepreneur or the idea. But what happens if it’s successful? how great could it be? What does the world look like then?
Read also
What led to Twitter Fame?
Draper started with a very modest Twitter following.
I think I had one Twitter follower, and it was my mother, he jokes.
While you might assume that one of Drapers investments or media appearances helped his following to skyrocket, he describes his growth as very natural, attributing it to the content he has been consistently posting over the years, which has kept people coming back for more.
He is proud of how truly organic his following is.
I think I have the most steady increase of Twitter followers of any influencer, he declares.
People behaving badly! India's government banned Bitcoin, a currency providing great hope for prosperity in a country that desperately needs it. Shame on India leadership. Pathetic and corrupt. #India #bitcoin
— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) July 17, 2019
What type of content can people expect?
Draper isnt here to clutter up his followers feeds with nonsense.
Hes all about adding a little sprinkle of value to their lives, and he sticks to only posting about three times a week.
I tend to post where its something I feel like people should see or where one of my startups has done something extraordinary, and I want to promote them, he explains.
Congratulations to Draper VC startup Otter! https://t.co/JXRXJ4af0O
— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) June 29, 2023
What content does Tim Draper like?
Within the 2,400 accounts he follows on Twitter, he relies on a select group of trusted people to keep him informed about the crypto industry.
Among his trusted crew are Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen and Silicon Valley investors Brad and Bart Stephens.
Congratulations and thank you to Brian Armstrong and his team @coinbase for a very successful Direct IPO. We @drapervc are thrilled to be venture investors in this leading #crypto company as it brings the old world of currency and banking together with the modern world. #Bitcoin
— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) April 15, 2021
Tim Draper predictions
Draper is backing his 250,000 Bitcoin prediction so hard that if it doesnt hit, hell bow out of predictions altogether.
If it’s not $250,000 or higher, then dont listen to me ever again on that kind of prediction, he laughs.
See t-shirt. $250k by 2022. My prediction was off by a bit. Hasnt made it thereyet. Certainly before the halvening. #truebelievers #bitcoin #worldoftrust #freedom #hodl pic.twitter.com/jMLi8rraj8
— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) December 31, 2022
When questioned about the chances of a Bitcoin ETF getting approved, he doesnt sound hopeful.
It might have to wait for [Republican candidate] Nikki Haley to be president, he declares.
Maybe its the cushy relationship they have with banks, maybe it’s the fact that they have uncertainty about it. Maybe a lot of our government is pretty old, maybe theyre just out of touch. But they’re missing something very, very important for the good of society, and I’m hoping they all come around.
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