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Trump Inches Closer to Harris on Polymarket as Betting Passes $1 Billion

This week in prediction markets:

  • $1 billion has been traded on Polymarket's Trump vs. Harris market, with the vice president in the lead.
  • Market is skeptical bitcoin's rally will last.
  • "Black Myth: Wukong" was a major hit for China's game industry. But the market doubts it will win Game of the Year.
Polymarket bettors have now put over $1 billion on the question of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will take the White House in November. While Trump appears to be closing the gap – Harris now only leads by one point – swing state markets are telling a different story.

Data from the prediction market site gives Harris a greater chance of winning four of the six key swing states, which is unsurprising as those four have historically leaned Democrat.Data from poll aggregator 270ToWin shows that Pennsylvania and Michigan went to the Democrats in the last seven elections, with the exception of 2016, where they voted Republican. In the 1980s, these two states were consistently red given the popularity of Ronald Reagan, which led to a clear victory for his vice president and successor, George H.W. Bush.Wisconsin has caught the interest of many poll watchers who call it one of the more competitive states. Wisconsin voted for Donald Trump in 2016, breaking a streak of Democratic wins, and has often shown tighter races between the two parties.

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows that the race in Wisconsin is extremely close, with Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%.Polymarket, however, gives Harris a clean lead in the Badger State, pricing her at 56 cents a share compared to 44 cents for Trump.Each share pays out $1 (in USDC, a cryptocurrency that trades 1:1 for dollars) if the candidate wins, and nothing if it doesn't, so the market is signaling Harris has a 56% chance of carrying Wisconsin.It's also important to note that polling in Wisconsin often misses the mark, and the state has been decided by less than a point in four of the last six presidential elections.

So the question could be, which is more accurate: unreliable pollsters or political gamblers? Now that Polymarket has cracked the Apple App Store's list of top magazine and newspaper apps, let's see if these degen politics junkies can give pollsters a run for their money in these swing states.Doubts about Bitcoin rallyThere's a strong bullish case for bitcoin, given the Fed's recent rate cut, the People's Bank of China's liquidity injection, and consistent inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Some market observers are basing their bullishness for bitcoin based on the increased buying of call options priced at $75,000 combined with increased sales of puts.A call option gives the holder the right to buy bitcoin at a set price later, signaling bullish sentiment, while put buying reflects bearish hedging.However, traders on Polymarket are skeptical about all of this, only giving a 41% chance the cryptocurrency will trade above $65,000 on Oct. 4.

Traders could be considering the possibility that bitcoin is drifting into "overbought" territory, a product of a price surge that ran a bit too hot.CoinDesk reported Monday that this perception, reflected in the Crypto Greed and Fear Index, suggests a potential pullback is in the works, especially with the upcoming U.S. ISM Manufacturing data, which has historically triggered price drops if it signals weaker economic conditions.

Over on Kalshi, the U.S.-regulated, dollar-denominated prediction market, bettors remain generally optimistic for bitcoin's price stability, giving it a 47% chance of finishing the year above $75,000 and a 34% chance of it topping $80,000. Traders are also confident that it will cross its previous all-time high of $73,200 this year, giving this a 58% chance of happening.Gambling on gamingThe video game Black Myth: Wukong has found success worldwide – a notable achievement for a Chinese gaming industry that was nearly suffocated by Beijing's regulation. But Kalshi bettors doubt it will win Game of the Year at the 2024 Game Awards.

Bettors on the platform are giving only a 23% chance of the game claiming the title, instead putting their money behind Astro Bot, with a 64% chance.While Astro Bot has garnered rave reviews, it's not the cultural phenomenon that Black Myth: Wukong is.Beijing put the brakes on its fast-growing domestic gaming industry in 2021, refusing to grant licenses for new titles after calling the medium "spiritual opium." The government had grown progressively more annoyed with the industry's reliance on "loot boxes," in-game spending, and incentives for players to log in daily.

The industry was unfrozen in 2022 after promising to reform itself and move away from freemium titles reliant on cash grabs.That's when Black Myth: Wukong was born.Unlike the games China's industry was known for, Black Myth is a narrative-driven role-playing game inspired by the classical Chinese novel Journey to the West (which holds the same weight in China's literary canon as Homer's Odyssey does in the West). It's designed to be a slow burn.The game is a massive hit in China, selling over 4.5 million copies in-country in its first week, and has found a following on the international digital game store Steam where it's the fifth most popular game, with nearly 250,000 concurrent players.(SteamSpy)Even Tron's Justin Sun was a fan of the game, changing his profile picture on X to its protagonist monkey.

Which, of course, led to memecoins.But this doesn't make it game-of-the-year material for Kalshi's bettors.Edited by Marc Hochstein.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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