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Litecoin: ‘Smart money’ holds up LTC’s value pre-halving

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Litecoin’s [LTC] double-digit price rally in the last week has pushed its Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio on a 30-day moving average above 30%, a position often marked by a decline in LTC’s price.

Is your portfolio green? Check out the Litecoin Profit Calculator

In a Twitter post made on 4 July, crypto analyst Sumit Kapoor noted that since 2018, each time LTC’s MVRV (30d) exceeded the 30% mark, LTC’s price dipped by an average of 41%.

🚨🚨 𝐀𝐓𝐓𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐋𝐈𝐓𝐄𝐂𝐎𝐈𝐍 𝐇𝐎𝐋𝐃𝐄𝐑𝐒
#Litecoin MVRV 30D has hit the 35% level, which has historically been very bearish for the $LTC price.

Whenever this level has exceeded the 30% mark since 2018, the price of #LTC has crashed an average of 41% 😨… pic.twitter.com/qUxDEunJC3

— Wise Advice By Sumit Kapoor (@sumitkapoor16) July 4, 2023

According to data from Santiment, this metric peaked at 36.25% on 2 July, after which it trended downwards. At press time, it was positioned at 26.38%.

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Exchanging hands at $105.07 at press time per data from CoinMarketCap, should LTC traders expect a price decline?

Operating on a proof-of-work (PoW) network, Litecoin has been steadily building momentum in the last week, with investors and enthusiasts eagerly anticipating the chain’s third halving event.

This anticipation caused the network’s native coin to close Q2 by marking a local price bottom at $85, signifying the exit of “weak hands” and the entry of “smart money” – an event that has since caused a 20% jump in LTC’s value.

An on-chain assessment of the altcoin’s Network Profit/Loss (NPL) metric confirmed this. This metric tracks the average profit or loss of all coins that change addresses daily to capture periods of profit-taking or holder capitulation on-chain.

According to data from Santiment, LTC’s NPL dropped to -44.04 million on 30 June, after which the alt’s price began to climb. Still on an upward momentum (albeit weak at press time), the impact of LTC’s ‘smart money’ activity remained visible.

Source: Santiment

Another important metric to note here is the Age consumed metric. LTC saw its Age Consumed unexpectedly spike to 438.91 million on 30 June.

This indicated a significant movement of idle LTC coins to new addresses, signaling a notable change in behavior among long-term holders.

Source: Santiment

Read Litecoin’s [LTC] Price Prediction 2023-24

It is trite that long-term holders of an asset are not predisposed to randomly transferring their holdings to new addresses. Therefore, a renewed activity of dormant coins is often associated with significant market conditions shifts and marks a local price bottom.

Following the LTC’s Age Consumed spike, its price surged, indicating that a new bull cycle was introduced ahead of the halving event.

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