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Just how bullish is the Bitcoin halving for BTC price? Experts debate

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Analysts recently debated whether or not the Bitcoin halving is still a meaningful catalyst for BTC’s price discovery.

A recent panel at the Swan Pacific Bitcoin festival was cleverly titled, “Are halving price cycles bullshit?” Throughout the discussion, host and founder of the Bitcoin Layer Nik Bhatia asked Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel, Swan CIO Ralph Zagury and Swan product manager Andy Edstrom to share their thoughts on whether the Bitcoin halving is truly a bullish event or just another narrative that novice investors buy into.

While the panel’s headline might be offputting for some, the inquiry is of great interest to all manner of Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency investors. The conventional belief held by many in the space is that the Bitcoin supply halving is a bullish phenomenon that when complete, is followed by near parabolic upside in BTC price.

Go and ask any Bitcoin lover about what they’re most excited about in the next year and if they don’t mention the chance for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval first, they're probably going to say the upcoming halving event.

Previous Bitcoin halving events have coincided with bull markets ramping up.

But will the macro conditions be ripe for that next year in May?

~ If we are past the initial shock of a recession.
~ If a spot BTC ETF is approved.
~ If QE is back on the menu.

Then the planets will… pic.twitter.com/g5dEEKiSMF

— ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) September 6, 2023

While previous performance does provide some compelling evidence for what might happen in the next halving, questioning long held assertions and price expectations for a high volatility asset like Bitcoin is probably something every investor should do more often — especially when considering the number of bearish events that have occurred in the past two years.

To start the discussion, host Nik Bhatia jumped right in by asking “if the halving is the main driver of the Bitcoin price?”

Thiel quickly responded with:

“In this cycle, no, I think it’s liquidity”

Zagury agreed, adding that “flow is really what drives the market, so the halving by definition, there’s nothing on it that should impact price.” Interestingly, Edstrom took a different position by suggesting that:

“I think the halving is still bullish and we can debate what the magnitude of that effect is, but yeah, I think it still matters for price.”

Each panelist, including host Bhatia seemed to agree that while the halving may possess some market moving capacity, it could be diminishing over time. According to Bhatia,

“The halving affects supply. It is less and less material as time goes on and it does nothing to affect demand. But from a psychological perspective, we might be able to play devil’s advocate.”

Halving hype and hopium is all in investors’ heads

e3827d5a-4314-4b0e-8623-115f77e93c6b.pngPanelists at the "Are halving price cycles bullshit?" panel. Source: Swan Bitcoin YouTube

Speculation is essentially at the root of all investing, and while Zagury and Thiel are of the mind that investors attribute more hope, than fact, to the forecast impact of the Bitcoin halving, Edstrom sees the event as the manifestation of a “psychological feedback loop coming into the demand side.”

“We think that Bitcoin price is going to be higher in the future, and by extension we are applying a lens of investment as we’re investing in Bitcoin.”

Another popular yearslong held belief by many investors is the role derivatives play in Bitcoin’s price discovery. Bhatia asked whether derivatives played a larger role than spot trading in impacting Bitcoin’s price action and Zagury said,

“The reality is that the data points we have, in terms of halving, are not enough to come to any conclusion. If you look historically at Bitcoin price, we’ve got the whole data set of price, and you try to find patterns of distribution, of how returns actually work, very quickly you see that there’s a lot of outer correlation, which means that price depends on time and also past performance.”

According to Zagury, “a thing about Bitcoin which is super curious, and I think there isn’t any other asset class like this out there, is that most of the time, Bitcoin is moving either sideways, in terms of number of days, it's either sideways or down.”

Related: BTC price models hint at $130K target after 2024 Bitcoin halving

Bitcoin’s time spent trading in a rangebound band or in a downtrend is what Zagury says “makes it really hard to hodl, right, because it means you're going to have months and years of pain and you’re going to have days of glory.”

“Being a hodler by definition, by distribution of prices that you see historically, it's extremely hard.”

Peddling back to the initial question about the role derivatives play in Bitcoin price discovery, Zagury said:

“When we talk about derivatives, the first thing you’re going to talk about is probability. It’s impossible to conclude what is really going to happen with Bitcoin price, that’s the first thing that you conclude by looking at historical returns. Going back to the halving, the fact that it actually outer correlates a lot, sometimes, in particular times of low liquidity. A small move that bumps the price up, the marginal seller out there will go through the short term sellers and then the price will jump up significantly. This explains why price moves up very very quickly.”

Liquidity will be the focal point

Despite discounting the impact of Bitcoin supply halvings on BTC price, each panelist expressed their positive longer-term bullish perspectives for Bitcoin’s value.

With liquidity being the agreed upon future price catalyst for Bitcoin, Zagury said:

“I’m very bullish. I think we are going to see that soon, because liquidity has been drawing down and we see that these things are starting to happen and it's not going to take a lot for us to see a very big move.”

When asked when and how this all-important liquidity comes back, Edstrom hinted that 10-year U.S. Treasuries pushing above 5%, the potential regional bank failures that mirror the ones seen 6 months ago, and the rising amount of banks holding long duration government debt at a loss, are all signs that a Federal Reserve pivot that returns to quantitative easing could occur sooner than later.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Source

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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