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Ethereum’s [ETH] 11% rebound – Is greed fueling a bottom or is fear driving a trap?

At the time of writing, on-chain data hinted at significant Ethereum [ETH] accumulation. Specifically, 380k ETH was acquired at the $1,461-level and an additional 453k ETH has been absorbed over the past five days. Taken together, this concentrated bid zone may signal the formation of a potential market bottom.

However, it’s crucial to discern the nature of this liquidity influx. If the capital is predominantly entering through spot markets, it may signal genuine buying interest, potentially marking a strong entry point for investors.

Conversely, if positioning is leverage-heavy, the market would be vulnerable to downside volatility. Especially in a risk-off environment where overleveraging can lead to rapid price corrections.

At press time, ETH was trading at $1,567, marking an 11% rebound from its recent local low of $1,412 five days ago. In a market swinging between low prices and high risk, is the current setup a trap or a golden opportunity?

It’s been two years since the altcoin last traded at $1.3k. Clearly, this dip is unlike any it has experienced in recent cycles. The subsequent buying frenzy was logical, reflecting the greed side of the market.

However, AMBCrypto’s recent analysis revealed that dormant whale wallets are beginning to realize losses, with notable capital rotation. This reflected fear-based flows.

For ETH to breach key resistance levels, market psychology must decisively tilt towards greed. In fact, Glassnode’s data supported this pivot.

The $1,461 zone has emerged as a potential support base, backed by 380k ETH in active accumulation. Meanwhile, Ethereum has remained range-bound between the $1,548 and $1,599 resistance zones where 793.9k and 732.4k ETH, respectively, are held.

This buying activity alluded to rising greed-driven sentiment. In a bullish environment, such accumulation often marks a market bottom. However, with the NUPL still in capitulation and FUD running high, the rally seemed to lack clear confirmation.

ETH NUPL

Source: Glassnode

If this accumulation isn’t supported by spot demand or institutional inflows, there’s a risk that buyers currently in unrealized losses may exit at breakeven, potentially triggering a local breakdown.

Therefore, for this to be confirmed as a strong entry point for investors, several key conditions must align.

Over the past week, 100k ETH has flowed into spot exchanges, with net inflows indicating sell-side pressure as market participants looked to liquidate positions. Meanwhile, the derivatives market recorded 60k ETH in outflows, reflecting leverage-driven demand.

Additionally, Funding Rates (FR) have remained positive, reinforcing a long-heavy bias across futures. While the structure was bullish, the setup will turn precarious when spot demand fails to support derivative-driven momentum.

In such cases, failure to clear overhead resistance could trigger cascade liquidations. especially if recent dip-buyers rotate out for profit-taking.

Adding to the caution, mega whale wallets (>10k ETH) dropped to 875 – An eight-year low, down from 1,000 just last month. This distribution phase aligned with ETH’s $2,600 local top on 21 February.

Ethereum whale

Source: Glassnode

Against this backdrop, ETH reclaiming the $2,000-handle looks structurally challenging. Despite visible accumulation, the positioning seemed to be leverage-skewed, lacking conviction from spot or institutional flows.

As a result, the press time setup bore all the hallmarks of a bull trap.

Why? Speculative greed drives the upside. However, whale exits, profit-taking, and derivative over-exposure threaten to drag Ethereum back below $1,400 before the market can confirm any sustainable bottom.

 

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