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CPI to spark dollar 'massacre' — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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Bitcoin seals its highest weekly close in ten months as CPI prepares to inject fresh volatility into BTC price and beyond.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the week on a firm footing as bulls send BTC price to a new ten-month high weekly close.

After a relatively calm week, last-minute volatility is getting traders excited at the prospects of a repeat attack on $30,000 resistance — but a lot stands in the way.

In what is set to be a significant week of macroeconomic data releases, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for March is due April 12, along with fresh insights into Federal Reserve policy.

Add to that the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade and a recipe for volatility is there. How will Bitcoin react?

Volatility correlations between the largest cryptocurrency and traditional risk assets are inverting, data shows, while sentiment data also suggests that there is little appetite for sudden selling among the hodler base.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the status quo in the run-up to what promises to be a week that keeps market participants on their toes.

CPI headlines key macro data week

A familiar event leads the week’s macro calendar, with United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due for March.

The release, this time on April 12, traditionally accompanies heightened volatility in risk assets, making that date a key area to watch for “fakeouts” in crypto markets.

The Federal Reserve will further produce the minutes of its latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, during which it opted to continue raising interest rates.

Key Events This Week:

1. March CPI inflation data on Wednesday

2. Fed minutes on Wednesday

3. March PPI inflation data on Thursday

4. Consumer sentiment data on Friday

5. Retail sales data on Friday

6. 4 Fed speakers this week

This week determines what the Fed does next.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 9, 2023

The environment is thus somewhat complicated when it comes to CPI impact on asset performance. While traders want to see inflation receding faster than expected, the Fed itself remains hawkish, last month confirming that further interest rate hikes may be appropriate.

However, divergence between the Fed and markets is equally in evidence — sentiment has begun to show that the latter simply do not believe that rate hikes will continue much longer.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, next month’s FOMC meeting will likely end in a repeat 0.25% hike. Those odds are highly flexible, and react immediately to any new macro data releases, CPI included.

16cb9b66-6b22-4f16-8347-7be8b974d4e2.pngFed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

For macroeconomic and stock market analyst James Choi, there is another side to the inflation story, one involving a traditional headwind for crypto: the U.S. dollar.

This week’s release will set dollar strength on a three-month freefall, he warned on April 10, paving the way for some potential further relief on risk assets.

“People seem to have no idea how the $USD $DXY will fall in the next 3 months,” he commented on a U.S. dollar index (DXY) chart originally shared in late 2022.

“And this massacre will begin with this week's CPI report. Mark my words, mark them well…”
fd717823-c14b-41c3-8f76-853700efe096.pngU.S. dollar index (DXY) annotated chart. Source: James Choi/ Twitter

Others are eyeing Q1 bank earnings as a source potential knee-jerk market reactions, among them Jim Bianco, president of macro analysis firm, Bianco Research.

In part of Twitter commentary, Bianco predicted that the earnings would be "bigger than CPI."

Bitcoin price volatility on the up

If volatility is what traders want, they arguably already have it in abundance, data shows.

According to market data resource Kaiko, Bitcoin is on a diverging path from equities when it comes to volatility, increasing action while the Nasdaq cools.

The events of last month, centered around the unfolding U.S. banking crisis, were enough to send the “gap” between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 30-day rolling volatility to its highest levels in a year.

a02c30f8-66ee-4af9-8023-e054d3a41fe3.pngBitcoin vs. Nasdaq correlation chart. Source: Kaiko/ Twitter

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold, Kaiko revealed last week, is now higher than that with the S&P 500.

766fae5b-b59e-40fb-9737-1e6a7d138647.pngBitcoin correlation annotated chart. Source: Kaiko/ Twitter

Continuing, Kaiko noted that Bitcoin’s inverse correlation to the U.S. dollar is also rapidly unwinding.

“Although BTC remains negatively correlated with the US Dollar, the correlation is now almost negligible, falling from -60% to -23% YTD,” part of Twitter commentary read at the weekend.

2021285c-d6d7-4b4a-9f9c-12d95fc8b720.pngBitcoin vs. DXY volatility chart. Source: Kaiko/ Twitter

BTC price sets new 10-month high weekly close

Bitcoin offered a late surprise into the April 9 weekly close, with BTC/USD making last-minute gains to seal the candle at just above $28,300 on Bitstamp, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

c6d552b5-8981-4173-b485-27e1728bb80f.pngBTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

This is impressive in itself, marking fresh ten-month highs for weekly closes as bears are continually denied a return to lower levels.

“Bitcoin still holding the lower area of support, and still following the path,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, wrote as part of his latest analysis.

“Everyone wants to long $25K, but I think we won't be getting it. No clear bearish divergences either on higher timeframes. Retest of $28.6K & most likely breakout to $30K+.”
42a931ca-0a7c-41fc-915f-5aa62430c07f.pngBTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/ Twitter

During the close, BTC/USD managed to hit local highs of $28,540 before returning to consolidate below the closing level.

Van de Poppe remains optimistic about the short-term prospects.

“Bitcoin consolidated at support and runs to $28,500. Another test of $28,600-29,000 and we’ll most likely breakout significantly,” he continued.

“More importantly; confidence comes back in the markets then, so you’ll see more Altcoins starting to break out.”

Related: Crypto winter can take a toll on hodlers’ mental health

In his own appraisal of longer-term market strength, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital described Bitcoin as “very well positioned” to make further gains.

#BTC is very well-positioned for mid- to long-term upside

It would be a shame to miss out on the exponential post $BTC Halving gains#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/FE1j3nCTmN

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 9, 2023

When it comes to price action in 2023 so far, however, he remains conservative, noting the ongoing potential for BTC/USD to form a “double top” structure and return towards its yearly open.

“Still unclear whether BTC is forming a Double Top here,” he summarized alongside an explanatory daily chart.

“Either side of the Double Top formation is approximately equal, though this more recent part is becoming a bit longer. If this second part becomes even longer, it could distort the pattern altogether.”
edc17318-efc3-422a-b52e-60cc0e28d140.pngBTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

Ethereum Shanghai upgrade looms

As Bitcoin market dominance sees a return to form, BTC may see an internal source of friction this week as Ethereum (ETH) prepares to undergo its Shanghai hard fork.

461205af-9245-4f91-8610-b41f456e5cec.pngETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Cointelegraph has extensively reported on the event, which will unlock — and open up for sale — around $2 billion in ETH.

Analysts are classically divided over how intense the resulting sell-side pressure might be, with some more sober takes arguing that there will be few incentives for holders to exit the market.

"For those looking to 'sell the news' after the Shanghai upgrade, staked ETH will take around 1 year+ to be completely unlocked, it will be on a first come first served basis," analytics account The Modern Investor summarized on Twitter.

"Those who started in 2021 will be released first. Caution: You’ll just be selling your ETH to whales."

While ETH/USD recently hit its highest levels since August, attempting to snatch $2,000, ETH/BTC is struggling to lift off from ten-month lows.

d4d94c56-b9f6-4c36-a47f-22fea2d8d7b5.pngETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

"Rejected," popular trader Cheds reacted to the latest events on the ETH/BTC daily chart.

Sustainable greed?

Despite crypto market sentiment being at its most "greedy" since the BTC/USD all-time highs of November 2021, there are some encouraging signals from hodlers.

Related: Bitcoin traders expect ‘big move’ next as BTC price flatlines at $28K

These come courtesy of research firm Santiment, which at the weekend noted an ongoing trend, which echoes hodler action from earlier that year as Bitcoin headed into unknown price territory.

"There is a rising rate of Bitcoin hodlers as traders seem to have become increasingly content in keeping their bags unmoved for the long-term," it stated.

"We saw a similar trend from January, 2021 through April, 2021 when $BTC rose above $64k for the first time."
00a077ba-24d6-48ce-a9cd-9b27d3b15acd.png

During Q1 2021, crypto market "greed" was much more intense, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index spending much of the time near its maximum levels — traditionally a warning that a correction is due.

10b570b1-a398-4048-9be2-29b59796ce1b.pngCrypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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  • 13.10.25 01:11 elizabethrush89

    God bless Capital Crypto Recover Services for the marvelous work you did in my life, I have learned the hard way that even the most sensible investors can fall victim to scams. When my USD was stolen, for anyone who has fallen victim to one of the bitcoin binary investment scams that are currently ongoing, I felt betrayal and upset. But then I was reading a post on site when I saw a testimony of Wendy Taylor online who recommended that Capital Crypto Recovery has helped her recover scammed funds within 24 hours. after reaching out to this cyber security firm that was able to help me recover my stolen digital assets and bitcoin. I’m genuinely blown away by their amazing service and professionalism. I never imagined I’d be able to get my money back until I complained to Capital Crypto Recovery Services about my difficulties and gave all of the necessary paperwork. I was astounded that it took them 12 hours to reclaim my stolen money back. Without a doubt, my USDT assets were successfully recovered from the scam platform, Thank you so much Sir, I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover for any of your bitcoin recovery, digital funds recovery, hacking, and cybersecurity concerns. You reach them Call/Text Number +1 (336)390-6684 His Email: [email protected] Contact Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Via Contact: [email protected] His website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 01:15 tyleradams

    Hi. Please be wise, do not make the same mistake I had made in the past, I was a victim of bitcoin scam, I saw a glamorous review showering praises and marketing an investment firm, I reached out to them on what their contracts are, and I invested $28,000, which I was promised to get my first 15% profit in weeks, when it’s time to get my profits, I got to know the company was bogus, they kept asking me to invest more and I ran out of patience then requested to have my money back, they refused to answer nor refund my funds, not until a friend of mine introduced me to the NVIDIA TECH HACKERS, so I reached out and after tabling my complaints, they were swift to action and within 36 hours I got back my funds with the due profit. I couldn’t contain the joy in me. I urge you guys to reach out to NVIDIA TECH HACKERS on their email: [email protected]

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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