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Can Crypto Sway the U.S. Election?

As the U.S. election approaches, political polarization is once again front and center. The country remains deeply divided, with the electorate split nearly 50/50 along party lines. The presidential race is shaping up to be too-close-to-call, especially with the recent resurgence of the Democratic ticket. The outcome will have significant implications for the future of the digital asset industry. Which raises an important question: Is the cryptocurrency sector influential enough to sway the election?You're reading Crypto Long & Short, our weekly newsletter featuring insights, news and analysis for the professional investor. Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Wednesday.

The answer appears to be “yes.” Elections are won by money and mobilization, not just by ideas. That’s the reality of the political landscape. Politicians can be influenced, if not outright bought, and this election cycle marks the first time the crypto industry has a well-funded, organized lobby to support its interests. Crypto-focused Political Action Committees (PACs) have raised $183 million to influence the 2024 elections, according to followthecrypto.org. Major players in Silicon Valley are seizing this opportunity to use their wealth and influence to shape future policies on digital assets and artificial intelligence.

Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, has welcomed these efforts, pledging strong support for the crypto industry. His proposals include revamping U.S. energy policy to position the country as a global leader in Bitcoin mining, ending "Operation Chokepoint 2.0," removing Gary Gensler as SEC Chair, and even creating a national strategic “reserve” of Bitcoin. The crypto industry has responded enthusiastically, pouring money into his campaign. Whether he follows through on these promises remains to be seen.

On the Democratic side, the nominee has been largely silent on crypto, though the current administration’s aggressive crackdown on the industry has left many skeptics. Many Democrats now acknowledge that SEC Chairman Gensler has become a political liability, and that young voters in a few crucial swing states will influence the outcome of the election.So why has the future of crypto regulation become such a hot-button political issue? The answer again is simple: money. Not just the large sums being funneled into this election, but the growing institutional interest in the industry itself, spurred by the advent of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has emerged as a leading advocate, touting the benefits of Bitcoin and blockchain technology.

The crypto industry has evolved significantly, with over 50 million Americans owning digital assets.Crypto has always been inherently political, challenging the very foundations of centralized markets. The principles of decentralization, transparency, financial inclusion, autonomy, and ownership have far-reaching implications for all aspects of our financial lives.Politicians tend to follow the money, and voters often cast their ballots based on economic self-interest. The American penchant for libertarian ideals is now intersecting with the fight for the future of digital assets. The political climate is increasingly favorable toward sensible regulations, with numerous crypto-friendly bills circulating on Capitol Hill.

Could this election finally propel crypto into the mainstream? Given the stakes, it certainly seems possible. In this context, being a single-issue voter isn't unreasonable, especially if your financial future is on the line. However, it's worth considering whether this could turn into a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the news."Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.Edited by Benjamin Schiller.

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