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Bitcoin’s September curse: Why history says BTC could crash 30% next month
September has often been a bad month for Bitcoin, with losses in eight of the last 11 years. Right now, traders seem unsure, and if fear takes over, Bitcoin could fall again — possibly by as much as 30%.
September has rarely been kind to Bitcoin [BTC].
BTC has historically posted negative returns during this month, and 2025 might be no different. With caution on the horizon, BTC could drop as much as 30% if past patterns play out again.
Since 2013, BTC has posted negative returns in eight out of 11 Septembers, with an average drop of 3.77% and a median fall of 4.35%.
The worst September came in 2014, when BTC tanked nearly 19%, followed by 13.38% in 2019 and 13.88% in 2022.
Source: CoinGlass
Even in bull market years like 2017 and 2021, September delivered losses of 7.44% and 7.03% respectively. This recurring pattern may be a seasonal trend of profit-taking or cautious investor behavior.
With BTC already facing resistance, a repeat of history could mean further downside ahead.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent dip, aggregated Open Interest remains elevated at over $39.5 billion; traders are still heavily exposed to the market.
However, the Funding Rate average is only slightly positive (0.0046) – a sign of weak directional bias. While positions are loaded, traders are hesitant to go aggressively long or short.
Source: Coinalyze
Typically, high Open Interest combined with flat funding rates can be a sign of indecision or a buildup to volatility. If sentiment flips bearishly (as September often triggers) this leveraged stack could unravel fast.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw mixed flows in August, with BlackRock’s IBIT pulling in $114.4 million even as total net outflows touched $17.67 million for the month.
Source: SoSoValue
This contrasts with the strong ETF inflows seen from April to July. Monthly net inflows steadily grew alongside BTC’s price and total net assets swelling past $151 billion.
Ethereum [ETH], meanwhile, dominated inflows in August, drawing five times more capital.
Yet, institutional confidence in BTC remains strong. Brevan Howard committed $2.3 billion to BlackRock’s ETF, and Dutch firm Amdax is launching a Bitcoin treasury vehicle aiming to secure 1% of BTC’s supply.
September has a shot at breaking its losing streak… if inflow momentum deepens.
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