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Bitcoin & Nasdaq’s correlation over the past 10 Years – Explained

The idea of Bitcoin as a financial lone wolf, immune to Wall Street’s whims, is officially a relic. A hard look at its price movements next to the tech-focused Nasdaq shows two assets that are now unexpectedly in sync.

What’s driving this new relationship is a mix of big-money players entering the scene, global economic pressures, and a new breed of investor, all of which changes what Bitcoin even means in a portfolio today.

Bitcoin’s price performance over the last few weeks makes this clearer with every passing day. At the time of writing, the crypto was valued at just under $120,000 on the charts. Over the past month alone, BTC hiked by almost 20%. Owing to the same, it can be argued that the asset has emerged to be a significantly popular store of value too.

Source: TradingView

People used to buy Bitcoin specifically because it didn’t move with stocks, making it a hedge. However, the last few years have completely scrambled that story, showing its connection to the Nasdaq can swing wildly from non-existent to nearly identical.

Everything changed with the pandemic panic in 2020. As the world’s markets buckled, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq took a nosedive together, creating a bond they hadn’t shared before. When cheap money later flooded the system to fight the recession, both Bitcoin and tech stocks soared on the same wave of investor optimism.

This isn’t just a feeling, but the numbers back it up. At points in early 2025, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 hit 70% – A rare peak. Other data showed their monthly movements were 71% aligned, the tightest they’d been since September 2022. It’s clear they are both reacting to the same global news, especially interest rate hikes and inflation reports.

So, what’s tying them together?

First of all, Wall Street’s giants have arrived. As institutional money piles into Bitcoin, these firms don’t see a rebel currency; they see a high-octane tech investment, just like the stocks in the Nasdaq. The green light for Spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 flung the doors open, making it easy for traditional investors to treat Bitcoin just like any other stock.

Then you have the investors themselves. The same thrill-seeking, tech-savvy crowd is often driving both markets. This creates a feedback loop where excitement or panic in one area quickly bleeds into the other, amplified by social media and round-the-clock market news.

Finally, the Nasdaq itself now hosts companies whose fortunes are welded to Bitcoin’s price, like MicroStrategy, Coinbase, and various mining operations. When they move, they create a direct ripple effect between the crypto and stock markets.

Just when you think they’re marching in perfect sync, Bitcoin’s own unique code can throw the parade off course.

The halving, for instance, is Bitcoin’s built-in supply shock. Every four years, the creation of new coins gets cut in half, a hard-coded scarcity that has often ignited bull runs on its own terms, regardless of what the stock market was doing. Look at the price action after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, and you’ll see a pattern that has little to do with the S&P 500.

Major software updates to the Bitcoin network, like SegWit or Taproot, can also juice the price. When the technology itself improves, it can spark rallies based purely on renewed faith in Bitcoin’s future, not on wider market sentiment.

A few things on the horizon could radically alter this relationship.

Government rules are the biggest wild card. A clear and reasonable regulatory plan could pull Bitcoin even deeper into the financial establishment, making it behave even more like a stock. However, a heavy-handed crackdown could scare off the big money, sending Bitcoin back to its anti-establishment corner.

The real test for the “digital gold” theory would be a true crisis of faith in government money. If people start doubting the U.S dollar or other major currencies, would they flee to Bitcoin for safety? That’s the moment it could violently break away from all other “risk” assets and forge its own path.

There’s also the chance that Bitcoin just grows up. As it gets bigger and its wild price swings start to mellow, it might stop being treated as a speculative bet and more like a stable store of value, like actual gold. If that happens, its lockstep march with stocks would naturally fade over time.

Bitcoin and the Nasdaq are strange dance partners. The arrival of Wall Street and a shared pool of investors have them moving to the same beat more often than not. And yet, Bitcoin’s internal programming and the threat of global turmoil mean it will never be fully tamed by the stock market’s rhythm.

For anyone invested in either, the key is knowing when they’re waltzing together and when Bitcoin is about to break into its own solo.

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