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Bitcoin holds $30K, but some pro traders are skeptical about BTC price continuation

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BTC traders are cautiously optimistic due to Bitcoin traditional assets, but there are still some macro headwinds to be aware of.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has finally broken the $30,000 level after the key price zone lasted as a ten months resistance level. BTC price rallied 6.5% on April 10 and the much-awaited price gain ended an agonizing 12-day period of extremely low volatility, which saw the price hovering close to $28,200. Bulls are now confident that the bear market has officially ended, especially considering the fact that BTC price has gained 82% year-to-date.

Another interesting note is, Bitcoin's decoupling from traditional markets has been confirmed, after the S&P 500 index presented a mere 0.1% gain on April 10, and WTI oil traded down 1.2%. Bitcoin traders are likely anticipating the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy to reverse sooner than later.

Stagflation risk could be behind the decoupling

Higher interest rates make fixed-income investments more attractive, while businesses and families face additional costs to refinance their debts. The reversal of the U.S. central bank's recent tightening movement is deemed bullish for risk assets. However, the fear of stagflation — a period of increased inflation and negative economic growth — would be the worst-case scenario for the stock market.

Fixed-income traders are betting that the Federal Reserve probably has one more interest-rate hike because the latest economic data displayed moderate resilience. For instance, the 3.5% U.S. unemployment rate announced on April 7 is the lowest measure in half a century.

The U.S. treasuries market suggests a 76% chance that the Federal Reserve will bolster the benchmark by 0.25% on April 29, according to Bloomberg. There's also the added uncertainty of the banking crisis's impact on the sector, with JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup scheduled to report first-quarter results on Friday.

Bitcoin's rally above $30,000 could be the first evidence of a shift in investors' perception from a risk market proxy to a scarce digital asset that might benefit from a period of inflation pressure and weak economic growth.

Two critical factors will determine whether the rally is sustainable: the high leverage usage increasing the odds of forced liquidations during normal price fluctuations, and whether or not pro traders are pricing higher odds of a market downturn using options instruments.

Bitcoin futures show modest improvement

Bitcoin quarterly futures are popular among whales and arbitrage desks. However, these fixed-month contracts typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are asking for more money to delay settlement.

As a result, futures contracts in healthy markets should trade at a 5-to-10% annualized premium — a situation known as contango, which is not unique to crypto markets.

a4fe4b14-cfb5-4a86-a477-2e4ab939b890.pngBitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Bitcoin traders have been cautious in the past few weeks, and even with the recent breakout above $30,000, there has been no surge in demand for leverage longs. However, the Bitcoin futures premium has slightly improved from its recent low of 3% on April 8 to its current level of 4.2%. This suggests that buyers are not using excessive leverage and there is effective demand on regular spot markets, which is healthy for the market.

Bitcoin option traders remain neutral

Traders should also analyze options markets to understand whether the recent correction has caused investors to become more optimistic. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

In short, if traders anticipate a Bitcoin price drop, the skew metric will rise above 7%, and phases of excitement tend to have a negative 7% skew.

Related: Microstrategy Bitcoin bet turns green as BTC price climbs to 10-month high

e5532a70-20b9-48ab-915f-c1f3cc3ff3c8.pngBitcoin 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

Currently, the options delta 25% skew has shifted from a balanced demand between call and put options on April 9 to a modest 4% discount for protective puts on April 10. While this indicates a slight increase in confidence, it is not enough to break the 7% threshold for moderate bullishness.

In essence, Bitcoin options and futures markets suggest that pro traders are slightly more confident, but not excessively optimistic. The initial decoupling from traditional markets is promising because investors are showing confidence that crypto markets will benefit from higher inflationary pressure and it highlights traders’ belief the Fed can no longer continue raising interest rates.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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