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Does World Liberty Financial Count as Trump 'Launching a Coin'? Polymarket Bettors Are Divided

This week in prediction markets:

  • Is Donald Trump really "launching a coin"? Some Polymarket bettors say shilling World Liberty Financial doesn't count.
  • Are PoliFi tokens surging because of limited upside in prediction markets?
  • Canada's Justin Trudeau is in trouble, but Polymarket bettors doubt there will be an election this year.
A presidential candidate starting a business on the campaign trail certainly is unprecedented, but that's just what Donald Trump is set to do Tuesday morning with the launch of his decentralized finance (DeFi) project World Liberty Financial.

On a Monday X space, the team behind the project said they are looking to raise $300 million with the token sale and have 100,000 accredited investors on the whitelist.Yet a Polymarket contract asking if Trump will launch a coin before the election gives it just an 83% chance of happening – even though Trump family members and associates confirmed a token is in the works during a September livestream and the post on X announcing the launch promises the start of a public sale.

Why the uncertainty? It's over whether this counts as Trump "launching a coin."The market's rules say it will resolve to "yes" if "conclusive, definitive evidence emerges that Donald Trump was involved in the deployment of a new token by" Election Day, "based on a consensus of credible sources."Some are contesting Trump's "involvement."One holder by the name of Asherwow, who holds over 8,700 shares of the "No" side of the contract, argued in Polymarket's comment section that "being an affiliate does not necessarily mean you are involved in the deployment of the coin."Trump would have to be more than having an "indirect business relation" for it to count, Asherwow wrote.Another No holder by the name of Lawyered.eth points to language from the white paper, first reported by CoinDesk, which reads: "World Liberty Financial is not owned, managed, operated, or sold by Donald J. Trump, the Trump Organization, or any of their respective family members, affiliates, or principals… World Liberty Financial and $WLFI are not political and have no affiliation with any political campaign."

Those on the yes side, however, use a more liberal definition of "involvement," and say the doubters are being pedantic."Should he also write the smart contract himself and deploy the liquidity to Uniswap?" asked one Yes holder.When the contract resolves after Nov. 4, should there be a dispute on the outcome, it will be sent over to UMA, a decentralized oracle service that referees the platform's crypto-based prediction markets. UMA token holders vote on the resolution, though Polymarket has overruled UMA before.

PoliFi vs. PolymarketTrump's odds of winning the 2024 U.S. election surged this month, bringing what was a tie in the first week of October to what's now a nearly 8.5 percentage point gap in the Polymarket odds.Meanwhile, in the last two weeks, the TRUMP (MAGA) token is up 63%, according to CoinGecko data, outperforming the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a market index that measures the performance of the largest digital assets, which is down 2%.

In an interview with CoinDesk, Steven Steele, the MAGA project's marketing director, said part of the token's appeal is that it has more room to grow than Trump's Polymarket odds, which have less upside the higher they climb."Buying TRUMP as a bet on Donald Trump winning the election now becomes more attractive, pushing more capital into TRUMP," Steele said in an interview with CoinDesk. "This offers significantly more upside than betting markets."On the other hand, if Trump wins, Polymarket traders who bet on his victory are entitled to $1 worth of crypto for every "yes" share they hold, whereas meme coins guarantee no payout and trade solely on vibes.

There have been other attempts to amplify the upside of prediction markets in the form of decentralized exchanges (DEXs), adding leverage to Polymarket contracts. Market data, however, shows this hasn't really caught on quite yet.Checking DEX D8X's leveraged prediction market shows low open interest available and a maximum 2x leverage to those wanting to trade the Trump "yes" side.

Meanwhile, the TRUMP token has had nearly $9.3 million in trading volume during the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data, pushing its market cap over $200 million.Canadian election?Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, is facing a revolt by high-ranking Liberal members of parliament and the continued threat of a non-confidence motion – a feature of the Westminster system where opposition parties can topple governments – but Polymarket bettors don't think there will be an #election2024 in the Great White North.

Around 20 Liberal MPs have reportedly signed a document urging Trudeau to step down, expressing concerns over declining poll numbers. Canadian pollster Angus Reid gives Trudeau a 30% approval rating. Surely with a minority government, where opposition parties, combined, have more seats than the ruling party, this would make for election season, right?Not quite.Although the Liberals hold only a minority of seats, they have managed to maintain power with the support of at least one other party during confidence votes.Both the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP have recently declined to back a Conservative-led non-confidence motion, with Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh signaling they would not risk triggering an election that could favor the Conservatives.

Polymarket bettors give approximately the same chances of that happening as an election.So even though Trudeau, personally, remains unpopular, until Canada's other opposition parties push for a motion of non-confidence, the status quo likely remains.Edited by Marc Hochstein.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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