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CME Bitcoin trading volume surpasses Bybit, but is it impacting BTC price?

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BTC trading volume at CME recently eclipsed Bybit, but what does this mean for Bitcoin's price?

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) introduced its Bitcoin futures contract in December 2017. This was around the same time that Bitcoin (BTC) had reached an all-time high of $19,800, but by late 2018, the price had dropped to $3,100. Investors in cryptocurrencies quickly learned that CME derivative contracts allowed them to make bullish bets with leverage but also enabled them to bet against the price, a practice known as shorting.

Historically, the Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposals due to concerns about manipulation on unregulated exchanges. The growing significance of CME’s Bitcoin futures market might address this issue, and recently, Hashdex has even requested a Bitcoin ETF that relies on Bitcoin's physical trades within the CME market.

Professional traders often use BTC derivatives to hedge risks. For instance, one can sell futures contracts while simultaneously buying BTC using borrowed stablecoins using margin. Other examples include selling longer-term BTC futures contracts while purchasing perpetual contracts, which could help a trader benefit from price discrepancies over time.

CME overtook Bybit to become the second-largest BTC futures market

CME has played a key role in the Bitcoin futures market since 2020, amassing an impressive $5.45 billion in open interest by October 2021. However, over the following years, the gap widened, as CME's Bitcoin futures market reached $1.2 billion in January 2023, trailing behind exchanges like Binance, OKX, Bybit and Bitget.

More recently, the Bitcoin price dropped by 12.8% between Aug. 16 and Aug. 17, leading to a $2.4 billion reduction in the aggregate futures open interest. Notably, CME was the only exchange unaffected in terms of open interest. As a result, CME became the second-largest trading platform on Aug. 17, with $2.24 billion in BTC open interest, according to data from CoinGlass.

Bitcoin futures open interest ranking. Source: CoinGlass

It’s worth noting that CME exclusively offers monthly contracts, which differ from perpetual or inverse swap contracts, the most traded products on crypto exchanges. Additionally, CME contracts are always cash-settled, while crypto exchanges provide contracts based on both stablecoins and BTC. These distinctions contribute to the difference in open interest between CME and crypto exchanges, but there's more to the story.

CME futures show discrepancies relative to crypto exchanges

Aside from differences in contract settlement and the absence of perpetual contracts, the trading of Bitcoin futures on the CME diverges significantly from most crypto exchanges in terms of both volume and pricing dynamics. The CME records an average daily volume of $1.85 billion, which falls short of its $2.24 billion open interest.

In contrast, Binance’s BTC futures see a daily volume nearing $10 billion, three times greater than its open interest. A comparable pattern is observed at the OKX exchange, where daily trading in BTC futures reaches about $4 billion, surpassing its $1.4 billion open interest. This variance can be attributed partially to CME’s higher margin requirement and the fee-free trading environment for market makers on crypto exchanges. Additionally, CME’s trading hours are constrained, with a halt from 4:00 pm Central Time to 5:00 pm and a full closure on Saturdays.

However, various factors contribute to price distinctions compared to other exchanges. These include shifts in demand for leverage among long and short positions, along with potential disparities in the Bitcoin index price calculation across different providers. Lastly, it’s crucial to consider the solvency risks associated with the tie-up of margin deposits (collateral) until the BTC futures contract settlement.

Related: When will it be too late to invest in Bitcoin?

December 2023 BTC futures, CME (blue) vs. Binance (orange) vs. Bybit (cyan). Source: TradingView

Notably, CME Bitcoin futures have traded at approximately $280 higher than those on Binance for the same December 2023 expiration. Ultimately, the day-to-day pricing of BTC futures contracts hinges on several variables. While CME’s trading volumes are trending upward, its pricing mechanism might not flawlessly mirror Bitcoin’s price movements on crypto exchanges.

Given the intricate interplay of variables impacting its pricing and trading dynamics, it fails to provide enhanced price guidance to BTC investors.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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