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CME Bitcoin futures hit record high, but uncertainty looms above $36K

388506df-4927-42c8-946d-64ff555982e6.jpg

CME Bitcoin futures hit a 2-year high, but options market data reflects investors’ hesitancy.

Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) hit an all-time high of $3.65 billion on November 1. This metric considers the value of every contract in play for the remaining calendar months, where buyers (longs) and sellers (shorts) are continually matched.

Bullish momentum on CME Bitcoin futures, but cautious BTC options markets

The number of active large holders surged to a record 122 during the week of Oct. 31, signaling a growing institutional interest in Bitcoin. Notably, the Bitcoin CME futures premium reached its highest level in over two years.

In neutral markets, the annualized premium typically falls within the 5% to 10% range. However, the latest 15% premium for CME Bitcoin futures stands out, indicating a strong demand for long positions. This also raises concerns as some may be relying on the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded futures (ETF).

Contradicting the bullish sentiment from CME futures, evidence from Bitcoin options markets reveals a growing demand for protective put options. For instance, the put-to-call open interest ratio at the Deribit exchange reached its highest levels in over six months.

350993a7-5ae0-442c-a03e-4c030776c068.pngDeribit Bitcoin options put-to-call ratio. Source: Laevitas.ch

The current 1.0 level signifies a balanced open interest between call (buy) and put (sell) options. However, this indicator requires further analysis, as investors could have sold the call option, gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price.

Regardless of demand in the derivatives market, Bitcoin's price ultimately relies on spot exchange flows. For instance, the rejection at $36,000 on Nov. 2 led to a 5% correction, bringing the price down to $34,130. Interestingly, the Bitfinex exchange experienced daily net BTC inflows of $300 million during this movement.

The fourth biggest inflow of #Bitcoin to @bitfinex yesterday, was roughly $300M; as soon as the inflow started, #Bitcoin started to trend down.

Extremely bullish, significant sell pressure, and #Bitcoin is still above $34,000https://t.co/xVpZcXGAZW pic.twitter.com/I72N686HfH

— James V. Straten (@jimmyvs24) November 3, 2023

As analyst James Straten highlighted, the whale deposit coincided with the fading momentum of Bitcoin, suggesting a potential connection between these movements. However, the downturn did not breach the $34,000 support, indicating real buyers at that level.

Bitcoin's latest correction occurred while the Russell 2000 Index futures, measuring mid-cap companies in the U.S., gained 2.5% and reached a two-week high. This suggests that Bitcoin's movement was unrelated to the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 5.25%.

Additionally, the price of gold remained stable at around $1,985 between Nov. 1 and Nov. 3, demonstrating that the world's largest store of value was not affected by the monetary policy announcement. The question remains: how much selling pressure do Bitcoin sellers at $36,000 still hold?

Reduced Bitcoin availability on exchanges can be deceiving

As demonstrated by the $300 million daily net inflow to Bitfinex, merely assessing current deposits at exchanges does not provide a clear picture of short-term sale availability. A lower number of deposited coins may reflect lower investor confidence in exchanges.

Apart from legal challenges against Coinbase and Binance exchanges by the U.S. SEC for unlicensed brokerage operations, the FTX-Alameda Research debacle has stirred more concerns among investors. Recently, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis called on the Justice Department to take "swift action" against Binance and Tether for their involvement in facilitating funds for terrorist organizations.

Related: SEC seeks summary judgment in Do Kwon and Terraform Labs case

Lastly, the cryptocurrency market has been impacted by increased returns from traditional fiat fixed income operations, while the once lucrative cryptocurrency yields vanished following the Luna-TerraUSD collapse in May 2022. This movement has had lasting effects on the lending sector, leading to the collapse of several intermediaries, including BlockFi, Voyager, and Celsius.

At the moment, there is undeniable growing institutional demand for Bitcoin derivatives, according to CME futures data. However, this may not be directly related to lower spot availability, making it difficult to predict the supply between $36,000 and $40,000—a level untested since April 2022.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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