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Bitcoin’s realized volatility surges in as traders face extreme price swings

Realized volatility measures how much an asset’s price fluctuated over a past period and is typically calculated by taking the standard deviation of daily (often log) returns and annualizing it. It differs from implied volatility, which reflects market expectations for future price swings.

Realized volatility is crucial because it captures actual market risk and helps investors gauge whether price movements align with their risk tolerance. It also reveals when markets are stressed, as large price swings drive up volatility.

Since the beginning of March, Bitcoin has seen a turbulent market characterized by rapid price swings. Coming off a severe late-February sell-off, the opening days of March saw Bitcoin stage a dramatic rally followed by an equally sharp pullback. These abrupt movements caused realized volatility to rise significantly.

Bitcoin Price & VolumeChart showing Bitcoin’s price and volume from March 1 to March 7, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

The rapid ups and downs in early March fueled a sharp surge in one-week realized volatility. Traders observed some of the most significant single-day percentage changes in months, leading short-term volatility measures to climb well above normal ranges. As major price fluctuations continued, two-week and one-month realized volatility measures also rose. Longer-term metrics tended to capture the combined volatility of February’s sell-off and March’s rebound, driving them upward.

While volatility peaked in the first three days of March, it gradually fell as the market tried to stabilize. The one-week reading slightly declined, reflecting somewhat calmer price action, though broader volatility remained higher than in earlier months.

Bitcoin exhibited the classic pattern of volatility clustering—a quiet period followed by a storm. Before the late-February collapse, Bitcoin’s price had been relatively stable (volatility was low through January and early February). This calm was abruptly broken by late February’s crash, which led to a regime of high volatility that carried into March.

Historically, low volatility lulls often precede sharp spikes in crypto and traditional markets. In this case, weeks of consolidation were followed by the most volatile episode in months, validating the idea that stability can breed instability as market pressure quietly builds and then releases.

Bitcoin realized volatilityGraph showing Bitcoin’s realized volatility from Dec. 8, 2024, to March 7, 2025 (Source: checkonchain.com)

By definition, realized volatility is derived from price movements, so it’s no surprise that the spikes in realized vol coincided with sizeable daily price swings. However, it’s worth noting the symmetry: the volatility surged regardless of the price direction. In early March, one day’s extreme rally and the next day’s steep plunge both contributed to the volatility spike. This underlines that realized volatility measures magnitude, not whether moves are up or down.

During that week, Bitcoin’s upward swing (March 1 – March 2) and downward swing (March 2 – March 4) were both huge, and together they pushed 7-day volatility off the charts. Traders saw that periods of high realized volatility corresponded precisely to the days of frantic trading and big candles on the price chart.

Whenever Bitcoin’s daily candles expanded (long wicks/bodies indicating significant intraday ranges), the trailing realized volatility metrics rose in tandem. This tight correlation held throughout March: when price movements calmed, short-term volatility measures also fell.

These extreme fluctuations signaled significant market stress. As negative sentiment and selling pressure emerged in late February, shorter-term realized volatility spiked. This reinforced that high volatility typically indicates heightened risk.

Concerns surrounding a new wave of trade disputes helped trigger the late February drop and continued influencing March markets. Investors fled riskier assets like Bitcoin amid renewed uncertainty, contributing to the heightened volatility.

The anticipation surrounding a White House summit on crypto, plus speculation about governmental actions regarding its proposed crypto reserve, added to the market-wide anxiety. Bitcoin is highly sensitive to regulatory signals, so any potential changes in stance further fanned volatility.

Tracking realized volatility can provide early warning of changing market regimes — in this case, the eruption of volatility confirmed a regime shift from bull-market complacency to turbulent correction. Second, comparing price action with realized volatility helps identify extraordinary moves.

In March, the fact that 1-week volatility exceeded 100% indicated that the price swings were not just large — they were historically significant for Bitcoin. It also showed that Bitcoin does not trade in isolation. Events like policy changes, economic data, and global crises directly feed into its volatility. March 2025’s volatility resulted from crypto-specific factors and external shocks (like tariffs and regulatory shifts).

The post Bitcoin’s realized volatility surges in as traders face extreme price swings appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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