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Bitcoin price corrected, but bulls are positioned to profit in Friday’s $580M BTC options expiry

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Reduced inflationary pressure fueled crypto investors' appetite for risk markets, eliminating the possibility of bears profiting from the Jan. 20, $580 million Bitcoin options expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has held above $20,700 for 4 days, fueling bulls' hope for another leg up to $23,000 or even $25,000. Behind the optimistic move was a decline in inflationary pressure, confirmed by the December 2022 wholesale prices for goods on Jan. 18.

The United States producer price index, which measures final demand prices across hundreds of categories also declined 0.5% versus the previous month.

Eurozone inflation also came in at 9.2% year-on-year in December 2022, marking the second consecutive decline from October's 10.7% record high. A milder-than-expected winter reduced the risk of a gas shortages and softened energy prices, boosting analysts' hope of a "soft landing." According to analysts, a soft landing would avoid a deep recession and possibly convince central banks to curb their interest rate hikes.

This week's Jan. 20, $580 million BTC options expiry looks like an easy win for bulls because the surprise 7-day 23% rally above $21,000 caused most bearish bets to become worthless. The recent move has holders (or hodlers) calling a market bottom and the potential end to the bear market, but the options market might hold the answer.

Can Bitcoin options help bulls secure the $20,000 floor?

It might seem like distant reality right now, but Bitcoin was trading below $17,500 just 7 days ago. As the weekly options expiry on Jan. 20 approaches, the bullish bets are about to pay off, while bears will see their options becoming worthless as the deadline looms over them.

Bears' main hope is the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) raising interest rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting, but that will only happen on Feb. 1. The latest data on U.S. retail sales have shown a 1.1% retreat in December, the second consecutive spending cut. The odds are increasingly favorable for a 25 basis point interest rate increase, signaling that the central bank's effort to curb inflation is achieving its expected results.

If bulls win on Jan. 20, they will likely add buying pressure and fuel the $20,000 support level.

Bitcoin bears were caught entirely off-guard

The open interest for the Jan. 20 options expiry is $580 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were decimated after Bitcoin breached $20,000. Bulls are in complete control, even though their payout becomes larger at $21,000 and higher.

f88b4b7f-9571-4581-abcc-3c71ac4ce815.pngBitcoin options aggregate open interest for Jan. 20. Source: Coinglass

The 1.18 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $150 million call (buy) open interest and the $125 million put (sell) options. If Bitcoin's price remains above $17,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Jan. 13, less than $2 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to sell Bitcoin at $16,500 or $15,500 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

$21,000 Bitcoin would give bulls a $220 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Jan. 20 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $19,000 and $20,000: 7,500 calls vs. 1,700 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $110 million.
  • Between $20,000 and $21,000: 800 calls vs. 8,100 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $165 million.
  • Between $21,000 and $22,000: 10,600 calls vs. 200 puts. The net result favors bulls by $220 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: Bitcoin sees new 4-month high as US PPI, retail data posts 'big misses'

Bitcoin bears need to push the price below $20,000 on Friday to minimize the loss. On the other hand, the bulls can double their gains by pumping the price above $21,000 on Jan. 20 and profiting by $220 million.

The 7-day rally toward $21,300 liquidated $1.2 billion worth of leverage short (sell) futures contracts, so they might have less margin required to subdue Bitcoin's price.

For now, bulls are well positioned to profit from the BTC weekly options expiry and use the proceeds to defend the $20,000 support.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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