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Bitcoin price action is beginning to mirror BTC’s 2015-2017 pre-bull market cycle

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Bitcoin’s price action and the crypto markets’ structure are beginning to mirror the pre-bull run activity seen in previous years, according to Delphi Digital.

A recent report by the research firm Delphi Digital illustrates the predictable consistency of price action and trends within the crypto market. The report delves into the interconnectedness between the four-year Bitcoin (BTC) cycle and broader economic trends.

According to Delphi Digital analysts, the ongoing consolidation at $30,000 is similar to the period between 2015 and 2017, with indicators pointing toward an all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin by the fourth quarter of 2024.

Economic cycle's impact on Bitcoin's performance

Delphi’s analysis draws attention to the inherent cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market. This cyclicality is demonstrated by the timing between peak-to-trough bottoms, recovery periods to previous cycle highs and the timing of price rallies to new cycle tops. Using Bitcoin as a benchmark, Delphi outlines the general blueprint of a cryptocurrency market cycle.

Bitcoin price in USD (log scale) reflecting four-year cycles. Source: Delphi Digital

These four-year cycles include Bitcoin hitting a new ATH, experiencing an approximate 80% drawdown, then a bottom around one year later. This tends to be followed by a two-year recovery to prior highs and, finally, a price rally for another year leading to a new all-time high.

The research reveals a fascinating correlation between Bitcoin price peaks and changes in the business cycle, as indicated by the ISM Manufacturing Index.

a08e5e30-86cb-4f36-9917-13293f215b89.pngBitcoin/USD year-over-year (orange) vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index year-over-year (white). Source: Delphi Digital

During Bitcoin’s price peaks, the ISM often demonstrates signs of topping out, and active addresses, transaction volumes and fees reach their highest point. Conversely, as the business cycle signals recovery, so do network activity levels.

The report emphasizes the Bitcoin halving’s role in these cycles. The last two halvings occurred about 18 months after BTC bottomed and roughly seven months before a new ATH. This historical pattern indicates a projected new ATH for Bitcoin by the fourth quarter of 2024, aligning with the expected timing of the next halving.

Bitcoin price action looks similar to the 2015-2017 pre-bull run phase

The report also suggests that the current market environment shares striking similarities with the period between 2015 and 2017. The alignment of market behavior, economic indicators and historical trends indicates that the current phase is akin to a time of increased risk exposure and potential growth, just as was experienced during that period.

The report notes that the market’s trading patterns, especially in the S&P 500, closely resemble the trajectory observed during 2015-2017. Even during times of uncertainty, such as an earnings recession, these patterns persist, mirroring the sentiment of that period.

The consistent pattern of Bitcoin’s cycle, its synchronization with broader economic shifts and the imminent halving in 2024 all contribute to this thesis.

4d7a876d-b603-49be-8acb-e868f1d85711.pngU.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, current (orange) vs. 2013-2019 cycle (white). Source: Delphi Digital

Delphi highlights parallels between the bleak global growth outlook during 2015-2016 and the recent period of economic uncertainty in 2021-2022. Factors such as the strength of the U.S. dollar and changes in global liquidity cycles echo the past.

The report underscores how gold’s performance around that time, influenced by currency debasement concerns, exhibits remarkable similarities to the present. These parallels bolster the argument that macroeconomic conditions are following a familiar trajectory.

Gold price in USD (log scale), current (orange) vs. 2015-2019 cycle (white). Source: Delphi Digital

Related: Is Bitcoin’s record-low volatility and decline in short-term holders a bull market signal?

The crypto market reflects an optimistic outlook, with some red flags

Delphi’s analysis provides compelling evidence that the crypto market operates within cyclical patterns that mirror broader economic changes. The report’s prediction of a new all-time high by the fourth quarter of 2024 aligns with historical halving patterns. This timing, coupled with the state of indicators like the ISM and expectations of renewed liquidity cycles, strengthens the argument for a cycle akin to the one seen in 2015-2017.

The upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024 further adds credence to the firm's expectations of a possible bull market by the fourth quarter of that year. While the analysis is not without its risks and uncertainties, the overall outlook for the cryptocurrency market in the next 12-18 months appears promising, given the stacking catalysts and historical precedent.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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