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Bitcoin on-chain data shows 5 reasons why the BTC bottom could be in

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On-chain analysis gives compelling reasons why BTC price could be in the final stages of a bottoming process.

After a whirlwind November for Bitcoin (BTC), certain on-chain and Bitcoin price metrics are suggesting that BTC’s bottom could occur in December. In Capriole Investments' latest report, they provide analysis on Bitcoin finding the bottom. When taking into realized value, miner capitulation, mining electrical costs, downdraw and record hodler numbers, a BTC floor of $16,600 - $16,950 seems formed.

Here are five reasons why Edwards believes Bitcoin price is coming closer to a cycle bottom.

SLRV Ribbons flash a buy signal

The SLRV Ribbons track investment flows by combining the 30-day and 150-day moving averages to the SLRV Ratio which is a percentage of the Bitcoin moved in 24 hours divided by BTC held for 6-12 months.

8550eb1e-ff16-43a8-97e8-580688842137.pngBitcoin SLRV Ribbons. Source: Glassnode

According to Charles Edwards, the SLRV Ribbons outperform the BTC HODL strategy, making it a strong indicator of where BTC price might be headed.

While the SLRV Ribbons have been bearish throughout 2022, the recent move to $16,600 flipped the indicator to bullish. According to Edwards, the change creates a buy signal for investors and institutional funds still in the market, thus building a strong case for Bitcoin’s price floor.

BTC price slips under its global electrical cost

While it is well known that a large swath of Bitcoin miners are currently operating at a loss, this is not a rare phenomenon throughout BTC’s history.

Bitcoin miners’ total production cost includes mining hardware, operational costs, capital costs, variable-rate power contracts and other factors, whereas the electrical cost considers only the raw electricity used to mine BTC.

33e94220-835c-41d3-9199-7855f36774ec.pngBitcoin production cost and BTC electrical cost. Source: Glassnode

The raw electrical cost has historically been a Bitcoin floor because it is rare for BTC to trade below this price point. Historically, Bitcoin has only traded below the electrical cost four times, the most recent being Nov. 10 when Bitcoin’s electrical cost hit $16,925.

BTC miner selling hits a peak

Miners are still losing money with production costs above the spot price of Bitcoin. This dichotomy forces miners to sell Bitcoin to stay afloat.

The current level of Bitcoin miner selling is the third largest in history, with the other two events happening when BTC was $2.10 in 2011 and $290 in 2015.

f30e0596-2052-4920-b602-5c0a9f8eb35c.jpegMiner BTC selling pressure, top events. Source: TradingView

In hindsight, investors would love to have those prices back and Edward’s suggests that the current BTC price may represent a similar value.

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons confirm another miner capitulation

Bitcoin miner capitulation involves miners turning off their ASICs which are no longer profitable, and selling portions of their Bitcoin reserves to cover expenses.

According to Capriole Investments, during miner capitulations, a floor price forms before the hash rate starts to improve. As noted in the chart below, another miner capitulation occurred on Nov. 28 and if the analysis is correct, this would put Bitcoin’s bottom at around $16,915 since the hash rate has begun rising after the Nov. 28 date.

2545c303-cfee-48e1-bcae-7decace93cbd.pngBitcoin mining Hash Ribbons. Source: TradingView

Related: Bitcoin clings to $17K as ARK flags 'historically significant capitulation'

All-time high Bitcoin hodling despite a historic price drawdown

One metric used to analyze Bitcoin hodler behavior is the Long-term Holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) tracker.

Throughout Bitcoin’s history, the NUPL metric has only shown such a large downdraw on four occasions.

168f6a2e-efc4-45c0-a4fb-a204e0393616.jpegBitcoin NUPL metric. Source: Glassnode

The previous occasions that witnessed such large downdraws represented value Bitcoin purchases for investors. Edwards suggests that if investors view BTC price as undervalued, their choice to accumulate could further solidify Bitcoin’s floor.

Another trend is forming as the long-term hodlers metric hits peak numbers. Currently, 66% of Bitcoin’s supply is in the hands of long-term hodlers, meaning they have held their Bitcoin for over one year.

According to Edwards, this behavior is aligned with shifting macro markets.

We have an all-time-high in long-term hodling. Those keeping Bitcoin at least 1 year now represent more of the network than ever before, 66%. Prior peaks of long-term holding all aligned with bear market toughs. pic.twitter.com/4IXnUg5f3S

— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) December 6, 2022

While the markets are still heavily correlated to equities and vulnerable to macro market shifts, multiple data points hint that Bitcoin could be in the final stages of a bottoming process.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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