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Bitcoin investors are bullish on the US Fed’s $100B loss

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The debt ceiling is unlikely to hold as the government faces increased pressure from interest rate payments, a potential catalyst for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

The U.S. Federal Reserve made a significant announcement on Sept. 14, revealing accumulated losses of $100 billion in 2023. What’s more, this situation is expected to worsen for the Fed, according to Reuters. But for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC), this may actually be a blessing in disguise.

The Fed in the red

The primary reason behind this financial setback is that the interest payments on the Fed’s debt have surpassed the earnings generated from its holdings and the services it provides to the financial sector.

As a result of this development, investors are now scrambling to grasp how this will impact interest rates and the demand for provably scarce assets like BTC.

Fed earnings remittances due to the U.S. Treasury, USD (millions). Source: St. Louis Fed

Some analysts are of the opinion that the Fed’s losses, which commenced a year ago, could potentially double by 2024. The central bank categorizes these negative results as “deferred assets,” arguing that there’s no immediate necessity to cover them.

The Fed used to generate revenue for U.S. Treasury

Historically, the Federal Reserve has been a profitable institution. However, the absence of profits does not hinder the central bank’s ability to conduct monetary policy and achieve its objectives.

Related: How do the Fed’s interest rates impact the crypto market?

The fact that the Fed’s balance sheet has incurred losses isn’t surprising, especially given the substantial interest rate hikes, which escalated from near-zero in March 2022 to the current level of 5.25%. Even if interest rates remain unchanged, Reuters suggested that the Fed’s losses are likely to persist for some time. This can be attributed to the expansionary measures implemented in 2020 and 2021 when the central bank aggressively acquired bonds to stave off a recession.

Even if interest rates remain unchanged, Reuters suggested that the Fed’s losses are likely to persist for some time. This can be attributed to the expansionary measures implemented in 2020 and 2021 when the central bank aggressively acquired bonds to stave off a recession.

In essence, the Fed functions like a conventional bank, as it must provide yields to its depositors, which primarily consist of banks, money managers and financial institutions.

An article in Barron's effectively illustrates the impact of the $100 billion loss, stating,

“The Fed banks’ losses don’t increase federal budget deficits. But the now-vanished big profits that they used to send the Treasury did help hold down the deficit, which is $1.6 trillion so far this fiscal year..”
U.S. total gross debt and debt ceiling, USD (trillions). Source: BBC

Clearly, this situation is unsustainable, particularly considering that the U.S. debt has now reached $33 trillion. While one might point fingers at the Fed for raising interest rates initially, it’s essential to recognize that without such measures, inflation would not have returned to 3.2%, and the cost of living would have continued to exert pressure on the economy.

Ultimately, the significant demand for short-term bonds and money market funds is a reflection of the trillions of dollars injected into the economy during the peak of the pandemic. Nevertheless, even if one settles for a fixed 5% yield on a three-month investment, there’s no guarantee that inflation will remain below this threshold for an extended period.

Furthermore, investors are confronted with the risk of dilution each time the U.S. Federal Reserve injects liquidity into the market, whether through the sale of assets from its balance sheet or when the Treasury raises the debt limit.

Ultimately, it’s improbable that fixed-income returns will outpace inflation for another 12 months because, at some point, the government will exhaust its funds and be compelled to issue additional Treasurys.

Real estate and stocks no longer a reliable store of value

There remains a significant unanswered question regarding which sector or asset class will reap the most benefits when inflation catches up with short-term Treasury yields. This uncertainty arises as the S&P 500 stands just 7% below its all-time high, while the real estate market exhibits signs of strain due to mortgage rates hitting their highest levels in over two decades.

On one hand, the S&P 500 index doesn’t appear excessively valued, trading at 20x estimated earnings — especially when compared with previous peaks that reached 30x multiples or even higher. However, investors are apprehensive that the Fed may find itself compelled to further raise interest rates in order to combat the prevailing inflationary pressures.

As the cost of capital continues its ascent, corporate earnings will come under pressure, leaving investors with no secure harbor for their cash reserves.

Presently, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may not seem like a viable hedge option, but this perspective could shift as investors realize that the U.S. government’s debt ceiling is essentially boundless. Thus, it might make sense to gradually accumulate these assets regardless of short-term price trends.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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