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Bitcoin bears attempt to pin BTC price under $23K ahead of this month’s options expiry

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$1.9 billion in BTC options are set to expire on Feb. 24, and bulls are well positioned to profit despite the Federal Reserve's intention to cool off the U.S. economy.

Bitcoin's (BTC) 16% price gain between Feb. 13 and Feb. 16 practically extinguished the bears' expectation for a monthly options expiry below $21,500. As a result of the abrupt rally, these bearish bets are unlikely to pay off, especially since the expiry occurs on Feb. 24. However, bulls were not counting on the strong price rejection at $25,200 on Feb. 21 and this reduces their odds of securing a $480 million profit in this month’s BTC options expiry.

Bitcoin investors' primary concern is a stricter monetary policy as the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) increases interest rates and reduces its $8 trillion balance sheet. Feb. 22 minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting showed that members were in consensus on the most recent 25 bps rate hike and that the FED is willing to continue raising rates as long as deemed necessary.

St. Louis FED President James Bullard told CNBC on Feb. 22 that a more aggressive interest rate hike would give them a better chance to contain inflation. Bullard said,

"Let's be sharp now, let's get inflation under control in 2023."

If confirmed, the increased interest rate pace would be negative for risk assets, including Bitcoin, as it draws more profitability for fixed-income investments.

Even if the newsflow remains negative, bulls still can profit up to $480 million in Friday's monthly options expiry. However, bears can still significantly improve their situation by pushing the BTC price below $23,000.

Bears were not expecting Bitcoin to hold $22,000

The open interest for the Feb. 24 monthly options expiry is $1.91 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bears expected prices below $23,000. Nevertheless, these traders were surprised as Bitcoin gained 13.5% between Feb. 15 and Feb. 16.

d04f62a9-eb21-4c6a-ba23-1487206eff35.pngBitcoin options aggregate open interest for Feb. 24. Source: CoinGlass

The 1.55 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $1.16 billion call (buy) open interest and the $750 million put (sell) options. If Bitcoin's price remains near $24,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Feb. 24, only $125 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to sell Bitcoin at $22,000 or $23,000 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls aim for $23,000 to secure a $155 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Feb. 17 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $22,500 and $23,000: 12,500 calls vs. 10,700 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $40 million.
  • Between $23,000 and $24,000: 16,200 calls vs. 7,600 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $200 million.
  • Between $24,000 and $24,500: 21,100 calls vs. 5,200 puts. Bulls increase their advantage to $385 million.
  • Between $24,500 and $25,000: 23,200 calls vs. 3,600 puts. Bulls dominate by profiting $480 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining inverse exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: US lawmaker introduces bill aimed at limiting Fed’s authority on digital dollar

The FED's tightening policy is the bears’ best shot

Bitcoin bulls must push the price above $24,500 on Feb. 24 to secure a potential $480 million profit. On the other hand, the bears' best-case scenario requires a 3.5% price dump below $23,000 to minimize their losses.

Considering the negative pressure from the FED's desire to weaken the economy and contain inflation, bears have good odds of improving their situation and settling with a $40 million loss on Feb. 24. This movement might not be successful, but it is bears' only way out of multi-million losses on the BTC monthly options expiry.

Looking at a broader time frame, investors still believe the FED is destined to reverse the current monetary policy in the second half of 2023 — possibly paving the way for a sustainable rally ahead of the April 2024 Bitcoin block reward halving.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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