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Bitcoin: Assessing the chances of a BTC trend reversal

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Bitcoin [BTC] saw a large amount of volatility on 3rd January as prices fell by 6.3% on the day. Despite the selling pressure, on-chain metrics such as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) suggested that the market is in a healthy bullish state.

AMBCrypto recently reported that the Coinbase Premium was on the rise. It has been positive since September, with a brief drop into the negative territory in mid-December.

This was a sign of steady buying pressure on Coinbase. It sparked speculation of consistent buying activity from institutional investors ahead of a Bitcoin ETF approval.

AMBCrypto took a look at other metrics to understand where BTC stands.

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The Coinbase Premium Gap has been positive for most of the time since October. It dipped into the negative territory in mid-December. Its inference has already been mentioned, but it can be combined with other metrics to provide keener insight.

One such metric is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio. It is defined as the market cap of BTC divided by the total market cap of all stablecoins. A low value for this metric indicates high buying power.

Bitcoin NUPL reaches overheated levels again after 2021, here's what that means

Bitcoin NUPL reaches overheated levels again after 2021, here's what that means

The chart above shows that the ratio has spiked since early October. This meant buying power has been declining. The strong demand for BTC, not just on Coinbase but across exchanges, saw the king coin rally from $26k in October to reach $44k in December.

The metric seemed to hit a ceiling over the past month. This was a sign that market participants could be watching and waiting. The ETF applications and debate over their approval and the impact on BTC prices could be causing this indecision.

On 5th December 2023, the Bitcoin NUPL climbed above 0.5. The last time this happened was back on 27th December 2021. This does not mean a reversal is around the corner. Instead, the market is neither in a state of euphoria nor despair.

Bitcoin NUPL reaches overheated levels again after 2021, here's what that means

Bitcoin NUPL reaches overheated levels again after 2021, here's what that means

The NUPL has formed a plateau over the past month. This is tied to the price action of the asset as well, for BTC was unable to continue its uptrend in recent months. An increase in BTC inflows to exchanges was part of the reason.

The past five days saw a rise in the 7-day Simple Moving Average of the Bitcoin Netflow. This meant that reserves on exchanges were increasing, even as BTC prices straddled the range highs. Hence, this metric’s continued rise would be useful to monitor.

Bitcoin NUPL reaches overheated levels again after 2021, here's what that means

Bitcoin NUPL reaches overheated levels again after 2021, here's what that means

The same uptrend happened in mid-December as well. This saw Bitcoin fall from $43k to $40.5k. The range formation of Bitcoin is also something investors and traders must keep an eye on.

Bitcoin NUPL reaches levels not seen since 2021, here's what that means

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

The range (purple) has been in play since 11th December. It extended from $40.5k to $44.3k. The breakout on 2 January appeared clean, and a retest of the highs would have been a good buying opportunity.

Instead, Bitcoin dropped like a rock to $40.7k on 3rd January. Since then, it has rebounded to the $43.6k mark. The OBV has been in a gradual decline since 11th December.

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-24

Attempts to revive an uptrend on the OBV have been cut short. This suggested a lack of buying volume. The RSI was at 51 to signal a possible shift in the momentum in favor of the sellers.

Hence, BTC holders must be prepared for a drop to the range lows and potentially far lower. Key levels to watch for the coming week are the mid-range mark at $42.5k and the recent highs at $45.9k.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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