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Binance's CZ Will Spend Less Than a Year in Prison, Polymarket Traders Bet

This week in prediction markets:

  • Polymarket bettors think Binance ex-CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao will spend less time in prison than what the U.S. DOJ is asking for.
  • The CFTC weighs a ban on election derivatives.
  • How low will the Federal Reserve go?
Binance's founder and former CEO, Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, will be sentenced in a U.S. court in Seattle Tuesday. The Department of Justice said in a recent sentencing memo that he should spend three years in prison, citing the scale of his misconduct.Polymarket bettors think he'll be out much sooner.(Polymarket)"Yes" shares for the "less than six months" contract on the crypto-based prediction market platform were trading at about 42 cents Monday, indicating a 42% chance CZ will be out in less than six months. (Each share pays out $1 if the prediction comes true, and zero if not.)Trading levels show a 17% chance he'll get 6-11 months, and a 19% chance that he'll get 12-17. All in all, the money says there's around a 96% chance that he'll be out in less than two years and a less than 2% chance he'll get sentenced for 30-35 months, which is around what the feds are asking.The traders might be counting on letters of support to help convince the presiding judge to trim the sentence significantly from what the DOJ asked for.Read more: Why the DOJ May Have Recommended a Three-Year Sentence for CZAmong those who signed such letters included in a submission to the courts were Max S. Baucus, former U.S. Ambassador to China; professors from Columbia and CZ's alma mater McGill Universities; Morgan Stanley Managing Director Sean Yang; and members of the ruling family in the United Arab Emirates."There is no excuse for my failure to establish the necessary compliance controls at Binance,” CZ wrote in his own letter, while giving an assurance that this would be his only “encounter with the criminal justice system.”CFTC vs. political betsThe U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is looking to tighten the screws on prediction markets, Bloomberg reports.The regulator is considering a ban on derivatives for betting on U.S. elections and may also restrict other event contracts, including those on sports and global health crises, the news service said. This comes as the CFTC faces a lawsuit from Kalshi, which doesn't offer direct election contracts, but bets on approval rating numbers or other political events like appointments, and is challenging the agency's decision not to approve its plans for election-related contracts.Even though the Republican primary season was one of the shortest in history, as most contestants dropped out in weeks, unable to trump Donald Trump, interest in the general election is at an all-time high, going by the nearly $117 million – up from $100 million a few weeks ago – bet on a Polymarket contract about its outcome.On paper, this $117 million would not have come from Americans, because part of a settlement with the CFTC requires Polymarket to block U.S.-based users.Keep in mind that at a state level, betting on elections is widely illegal. Nevada spells it out clearly in Nevada Revised Statues § 293.830, which says "Any person who makes, offers or accepts any bet or wager upon the result of any election, or upon the success or failure of any person or candidate, or upon the number of votes to be cast, either in the aggregate or for any particular candidate, or upon the vote to be cast by any person, is guilty of a gross misdemeanor."New Jersey and Texas also have similar language on the books. In some other states, gambling on everything is illegal, unless specifically authorized otherwise or if it takes place on Native American tribal territory; this specific authorization is how online sports betting became legal state-by-state.In other countries, election gambling is also illegal. In Taiwan, the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act specifically prohibits it, and a Polymarket contract about that nation's recent general election led to arrests and a complete national-level block of its domain.PredictIt, a popular U.S. election betting site, is allowed to operate under a no-action letter from the CFTC which limits the number of bettors on each question to 5,000 and the size of each bet to $850. The regulator yanked the letter last year and ordered PredictIt to shut down but the platform sued and won the right to stay in business, for now.Will U.S. interest rates drop below 5.25%?There's renewed talk of the Federal Reserve cutting rates, as fears of stagflation grip the traditional finance and crypto markets.On Kalshi – which unlike Polymarket is licensed by the CFTC, does business only in the U.S. and settles bets in dollars – the highest single probability (37%) is for zero cuts this year, although there's a combined 60% odds for 1-3 cuts.When the cuts come, how low will they go?(Kalshi)Lower than 5.25%, the hive mind says, giving it a 62% chance, and a 36% chance of it being lower than 5%.The central bank's benchmark rates is currently at 5.5%.Of course, the last time the Fed seriously cut rates was during the Covid-19 pandemic, and before that, in 2019 as a way to hedge against the possible consequences of then-president Trump's trade wars with China. It was a very different time back then, as the Fed said there wasn't enough inflation.Edited by Marc Hochstein and Nick Baker.

Source

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    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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