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80% of CME crypto futures expire by August

CME’s Bitcoin futures and options structure has become increasingly condensed and cautious, with the vast majority of notional exposure now expiring within the next four weeks.

At the same time, the annualized basis curve has flattened to its narrowest level since April, offering minimal incentive for arbitrage-driven carry trades and limited insight into longer-term market expectations.

On June 6, futures open interest on CME stood at $15.51 billion. Of this total, $12.42 billion, or 80%, was allocated to contracts expiring in one to two months. The two-to-three-month bucket held another $2.92 billion, while contracts beyond three months accounted for less than $175 million.

Bitcoin CME Futures Open Interest USD (Stacked)Chart showing the open interest for CME Bitcoin futures by expiry from June 2 to June 6, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

Such extreme front-loading suggests that institutional participants, including asset managers and hedge funds, are almost entirely focused on near-term exposure. This likely reflects a mix of low-conviction positioning and a focus on basis-capture strategies tightly coupled to spot ETF arbitrage.

It also exposes the market to a heightened risk of volatility if spot prices move sharply before the July expiry, which now holds most of the leverage.

The futures basis confirms the lack of directional aggression. The annualized premium on the 1-to-2-month contract is just 0.43 %, while the 2-to-3-month yield is 0.97 %.

The curve tops out at 2.71 % for expiries beyond six months, with just 2.3 percentage points separating the short and long ends.

This is the flattest term structure since early Q2 and falls well below historical norms, which often saw 4–6 points of spread in trending environments.

Bitcoin CME Futures Annualized BasisGraph showing the annualized basis for CME Bitcoin futures from June 2 to June 6, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

The compressed basis tells us two things. First, the spot bid, driven in part by steady ETF inflows, has pulled futures pricing closer to cash.

Second, leveraged long interest appears muted, with market participants either avoiding directional risk or expressing it through less capital-intensive options structures.

CME’s options data corroborates this view. Total options open interest reached $89.87 million, with $69.38 million in calls and only $20.47 million in puts. The notional call-to-put ratio of 3.4 highlights a prevailing bias toward upside protection or speculative bets, though the relatively small overall size suggests the directional appetite is cautious.

Options are often used for low-convexity hedging rather than large directional risk, and current figures point to just that.

Bitcoin CME Options Open Interest USD (Stacked by position)Chart showing open interest for CME Bitcoin options by position from June 2 to June 6, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

In terms of expiration, $48.19 million, or more than half the options book, matures in one to two months. The remaining volume is scattered across longer durations, including $14.91 million in the four-to-five-month bucket and $16.43 million in options beyond six months, likely reflecting some positioning for early 2026.

Bitcoin CME Options Open Interest USD (Stacked by expiration)Chart showing the open interest for CME Bitcoin options by expiry from June 2 to June 6, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant)

The spot market provides an important context for understanding the current setup. On June 6, Bitcoin opened near $101,551 and closed at $104,407. The day marked the end of a multi-day run of elevated volume following the first week of the month, during which time a large number of June futures positions rolled forward.

With over 80% of the futures book now concentrated in July, any material move in spot over the next four weeks will echo through tightly packed institutional positions.

This crowded structure raises the possibility of a short-dated volatility event, particularly if Bitcoin tests the $110,000-$115,000 zone. Hedging flows from options desks, delta adjustments from large structured positions, or ETF-driven dislocations could easily amplify short-term price moves.

Given the thin open interest further down the curve, the market’s ability to absorb that volatility via roll extensions or risk redistribution seems limited.

At the same time, the flat basis reflects a broader trend seen throughout 2025: the growing compression of yield between futures and spot. This suggests that traditional cash-and-carry trades, once a core pillar of institutional crypto strategy, now offer diminishing returns.

CME’s Bitcoin derivatives board has entered a phase of concentrated short-dated positioning, extremely tight basis spreads, and directional indecision. Futures exposure is overwhelmingly short-term, while options positioning leans bullish but remains modest in scale.

These patterns reinforce the notion of a market waiting for stronger cues to break its current holding pattern.

Should volatility return in June or early July, the present setup could make CME’s board a key channel for reflexive price action.

Until then, carry desks, ETF arbitrageurs, and cautious macro traders appear content to stay close to spot, harvest minimal yield, and wait for clarity.

The post 80% of CME crypto futures expire by August appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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