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4 alarming charts for Bitcoin bulls as $27K becomes formidable hurdle

ae9d160e-ba9b-42cd-a568-6357d21af8b0.jpg

The price of Bitcoin can fall to $15,000 in 2023 if its strengthening correlation with certain macro charts is any indication.

Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied nearly 60% to around $27,000 in 2023 amid anticipations that the Federal Reserve would pause its quantitative tightening amid the U.S. banking crisis. Still, BTC price has failed to move beyond $30,000 decisively.

Buying exhaustion at this key psychological level led to a price correction toward $25,000 over the past week. Interestingly, the decline has strengthened Bitcoin's correlation with several traditional financial metrics.

But does this raise the risk of Bitcoin continuing its downtrend in Q2? Let's have a closer look.

U.S. dollar index's double bottom

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, rose 1.4% to 102.70 in the week ending May 14. The rise marked the dollar's best week since September 2022.

Interestingly, the dollar's rise left behind a potential double bottom pattern, confirmed by two low points near a similar horizontal price level of around 100.75. A double bottom pattern is a bullish reversal setup, suggesting DXY could rise toward 105.85 in the next few months.

f9a3bbfc-93dd-42e9-a454-27ecb4d72a15.pngDXY weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

DXY's weekly relative strength index (RSI), which has undergone a rebound after reaching 35 — just five points above the oversold threshold — further hints at bullish continuation, which is typically a bad omen for Bitcoin's price.

The main reason is the strengthening negative weekly correlation between Bitcoin and DXY, with the coefficient around -50 as of May 14.

Earlier in the week, the latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report showed headline inflation dropped to 4.9% in April versus the previous month's 5%. However, core inflation was up 5.5%, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky, which for now has cooled down Fed rate cut expectations.

John Authers from Bloomberg writes:

"The odds of a 'pause' in interest rate hikes next month have now risen to virtual certainty in futures and swaps markets, having been seen as an 84% chance before the numbers came out."

A Fed pause should result in a stabilizing bond market. History indicates that stable interest rates have been good for U.S. Treasuries but bad for stocks, with Erin Browne and Emmanuel Sharef of Pimco saying:

"If the Fed pauses at its peak rate for at least six months and the U.S. slides into recession, then history suggests 12-month returns following the final rate hike could be flat for 10-year U.S. Treasuries, while the S&P 500 could sell off sharply."

Thus, a souring risk appetite would be a boon for the dollar, while increasing the risk of Bitcoin failing to reclaim $30,000 in the short term.

Gold price near key reversal point

The price of gold has risen nearly 15% to over $2,000 an ounce amid the banking crisis. The positive correlation with Bitcoin has also grown stronger with its weekly coefficient reading at 0.82 as of May 14.

But gold's rally has brought its price to an infamous horizontal resistance level near $2,075. In March 2022, this level was instrumental in triggering a sharp bearish reversal phase that led the gold's value down by up to 22%.

e96985c2-f799-4ce8-b620-dcdf5ae4613b.pngXAU/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Similarly, testing the level as resistance in August 2020 preceded an 18% price decline. Should the scenario repeat in 2023, gold's price could fall toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) near $1,850.

Gold's weekly RSI, treading around its overbought reading of 70, indicates at a similar downside scenario. As a result of the precious metal's positive correlation with Bitcoin, the latter may see a similar correction in Q2.

M2 money supply declines

M2 measures cash in circulation plus dollars in bank and money-market accounts. The M2 figure surged by more than 40% during the Covid-19 pandemic due to the Fed's quantitative easing, hitting a peak of $21.84 trillion in January 2022.

It has since declined to $20.81 trillion, down over 4% from peak, in May 2023.

34f0d856-2808-40ef-b5d1-8b0402ca6694.pngU.S. M2 monthly supply chart. Source: TradingView

A 2%-plus drop in the M2 supply — something which has happened four times to date — is bad news for the stock market since it preceded three depressions and one panic.

In other words, the significant move lower in M2 could foreshadow new lows for Bitcoin, which often moves in tandem with U.S. stock indexes.

Currently, the weekly correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 index is 0.92.

Bitcoin price "rising wedge"

Bitcoin appears to be heading toward the $15,000-$20,000 price range, depending on its potential breakdown point from what appears to be a rising wedge pattern.

3490ede0-5a17-40f5-afd2-a162b43a956a.pngBTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

For technical analysts, a rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that appears when the price rises higher inside a range defined by two contracting, ascending trendlines. It resolves after price breaks below the lower trendline, falling by as much as the maximum wedge height.

Related: BTC price bounces at $25.8K lows amid warning over low whale interest

If this BTC price pattern is confirmed, particularly given the above-mentioned macro indicators, Bitcoin price stands to decline to as low as $15,000 in 2023, down about 45% from current price levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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