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Токеномика с Владимиром Менаскопом. Часть вторая: к TGE и не только

Из первой части большого ликбеза Владимира Менаскопа о том, как организовать токеномику проекта, читатели ForkLog уже узнали базовые принципы и понятия этой сферы Web3-бизнеса. Теперь публикуем продолжение, посвященное грамотному планированию выхода стартапа на рынок.

Напомню тезис из первой части исследования: «Последовательность „pre-seed, seed, private A и B, pre-IDO, IDO“ может служить вполне рабочим лекалом». Отталкиваясь от него, попробуем разработать пример токеномики.

За остов возьмем классический подход, когда все участники проекта (фонды-контрибьюторы, они же — «инвесторы», команда, розничные контрибьюторы) бьются за FDV.

Эта модель лично мне всегда казалось неустойчивой, и сейчас есть немало исследований, подтверждающих мои предположения (раз, два, три). Но ее так настойчиво пропагандировал VC-сегмент после нападок на ICO, что подавляющее большинство проектов в итоге в нее поверило.

Итак, пусть у нас будет Total Supply в 1 000 000 000 токенов с тикером EXAM и следующим базовым распределением:

Многие считают, что подобная таблица представляет собой либо уже готовую токеномику, либо ее базовую часть.

Но это не так. На этом этапе имеются лишь вводные данные для статической части токеномики, да и то теоретические, поскольку цифра 1 000 000 000 ничем не обоснована. А ведь есть еще динамическая часть и их взаимодействие.

Прежде чем перейдем к цифрам, несколько лайфхаков.

Во-первых, раньше я давал каждому проекту личное напутствие: не стоит не только употреблять стоп-слова вроде «инвестор», «инвестиции», «прибыль», но и раздавать токеномику направо и налево до момента TGE. Но теперь я могу просто сослаться на авторитет фонда a16z, эксперты которого разделяют мою точку зрения.

Во-вторых, пересмотр токеномики — «красный флаг» для многих сервисов, которые могут быть связаны с вашим проектом (свежий пример). Поэтому так делать можно только в самых крайних случаях.

В-третьих, помните: не столько важны цифры, сколько следование базовым принципам, особенно — «главному закону токеномики», гласящему: спрос нужно увеличивать, а предложение уменьшать, чтобы к вашему токену всегда возрастал интерес.

Представленная выше модель содержит внутреннее хеджирование групп:

У каждой группы свои интересы:

Конечно, это идеальная картина, а на практике в комьюнити бывает немало деген-трейдеров и нерадивых участников («хомяков») разного уровня, которым важно получить доход здесь и сейчас. Поэтому долгое время была распространена следующая схема:

Как бы то ни было, общие интересы у групп никуда не делись, и они вытекают из сути экономических отношений, а не субъективных предпочтений.

Поэтому, чем:

И не стоит забывать, что Circulated Supply на момент IDO — далеко не все, с чем команде предстоит работать. Это лишь начало.

В этот раздел обычно умещаются три тезиса:

Последний пункт не входит в предмет этого исследования, поэтому затрону его лишь поверхностно, а вот два первых попробую расписать по пунктам.

Для начала — снова лайфхаки:

Но это далеко не все.

Многих удивляет, когда их просят показать готовые дорожные карты до начала написания токеномики. Я могу обосновать это требование не только общим, идеологическим, подходом, но и вполне конкретной практикой.

Рассмотрим четыре дорожные карты:

Очевидно, если у нас MVP выходит через один-три месяца, альфа-версия — через полгода, бета — через девять месяцев, а стабильная версия — через год (можно смело умножать на два, а то и на три), то и дорожная карта токеномики должна учитывать эти периоды.

Например:

На каждый значимый период разблокировок нужны массированные маркетинговые мероприятия, а дорожная карта должна вселять в комьюнити уверенность в планомерном развитии. Наконец, ДАО-карта позволяет выстроить процесс децентрализации в связке с технологической эволюцией проекта.

Без этого вы никогда не сможете планировать. Тезис о том, что «все течет, все меняется» выдает дилетанта. Конечно, все меняется и довольно быстро, особенно в индустрии Web 3.0 и Web3, но это не значит, что вы не можете распланировать базовые стадии и степени реализации проекта. К тому же, угода конъюктуре рынка — обычно дорога в ад. Посмотрите на выживаемость мем-токенов (она колеблется в районе 1–3%), чтобы в этом убедиться.

Итак, у нас есть базовая блокировка на 24 месяца (лучше — больше: у Polkadot, скажем, это было полноценных три года). Что дальше?

Попробуем посчитать, сколько получится, если 100% разделить на 24. Примерно 4,17%.

Это будет среднее значение, к которому будем стремиться при ежемесячной разблокировке с учетом того, что:

Проценты могут варьироваться в зависимости от ниши, отрасли, сферы, состояния рынка и так далее.

В этом случае мы фактически программируем токеномику на планомерную разблокировку средств в каждом месяце после IDO. Скажу сразу: этот вариант не идеальный и не всем подходит, но с него можно начать, чтобы проследить динамику по токену. Также нужно учесть, что каждая группа «инвесторов» будет по-разному выходить, поэтому сначала разблокируем тех, у кого меньше иксов от цены входа, а потом тех, у кого больше. Об этом я писал не раз: здесь, здесь и здесь.

Допустим, на IDO (это нулевой месяц, и поэтому нас в итоге получится не 24 «чистых» месяца, а 25) разблокируем для каждой группы токены в следующих пропорциях:

То есть команда и эдвайзеры ничего не получают на первичном размещении. Это сделано для того, чтобы гарантировать их заинтересованность в проекте, а не спекулятивную игру на токене.

Раунды pre-seed, seed, private A, private B получают в пропорции по правилу «первый зашел — последний вышел». Чем более ранний раунд, тем меньше он получает и тем дольше у него срок общего вестинга. Например:

В этом случае имеем полную разблокировку (по раунду pre-IDO) к моменту стабильной версии продукта и создания полноценной ДАО. Поэтому надеемся, что влияние в случае полномасштабного слива токенов будет не таким заметным.

И вообще: всегда берите за базис самый негативный сценарий, а не позитивный, так как иначе вы рискуете продать всю ликвидность проекта — и дешево.

Конечно, фонды, синдикаты, бизнес-ангелы и прочие «инвесторы», а вслед за ними маркетмейкеры будут убеждать вас в обратном. Но помните о системе сдержек и противовесов: у вас и у них при всей кажущейся похожести крайне разные позиции по развитию проекта.

Итак, получается, что на IDO будет выведено 6,62% токенов EXAM, что и будет Circulated Supply. Что дальше?

Смотрим таблицу (наполняться она будет по мере написания статей): допустимый это диапазон или нет? Да, вполне. Напомню сразу: допустимость определяет команда согласно своим дорожным картам и никто иной.

«Инвесторы», маркетмейкеры и даже участники комьюнити на этой стадии ничего про проект толком не знают и могут лишь советовать, но не решать.

По цифрам получаем следующее:

То есть разблокируем 1% от купленных на pre-seed токенов. Всего их в этом раунде 2% от общей эмиссии, поэтому в итоге мы разблокируем к этому моменту 0,02% от всех токенов.

Суммарно получаем 6,62%. Много это или мало?

Ответ зависит от общей токеномики проекта, но в целом я сторонник простых подходов: больше 10% на IDO, если только вы не хотите выводить в рынок 100% для комьюнити, — не лучшая практика.

Очень важно сохранить баланс между комьюнити и начальными «инвесторами». Давайте посчитаем:

Как итог: 0,62% + 1% = 1,62%. Именно столько получаем, если и «инвесторы», и контрибьюторы от комьюнити захотят «уничтожить» токен, то есть слить все имеющиеся у них активы.

В пул, например, на DEX положим 5% против этих самых 1,62%. Не стоит забывать, что сюда же отправим еще и ликвидность в USDT, USDC, DAI, ETH и подобных активах.

Но сколько? Все зависит от начальной цены токена.

На нее влияет множество факторов, поэтому выберем четыре.

По последнему тезису добавлю, что распределение в 10х у закрытых раундов, как это было в эпоху ICO, уже неуместно. Обычно речь идет максимум о трех-пяти иксах к IDO, а желательно и того ниже.

Возьмем для примера следующие цифры:

Рассчитаем по формуле: Price (IDO) / Price (Round) — 1 количество заложенных иксов с учетом каждого раунда:

(Да простят меня коллеги за вольность, но раз уж рынок измеряет доходность в иксах, не буду отходить от канона.)

Конечно, это вновь идеальная картина, так как обычно «инвесторы» требуют куда больше, но мы рассматриваем принципы токеномики, а не способы манипулирования чужим мнением.

Теперь давайте поймем: то, сколько стоит стартап, как он оценивается и сколько у него реальных денег — разные вещи.

Во-первых, что касается методологии оценки стоимости стартапа, то здесь унифицированного подхода нет. Самый простой — умножить Total Supply на цену токена раунда:

Здесь есть несколько психологических моментов.

Поэтому следующее, о чем стоит говорить любому достойному проекту — распределение и работа с ликвидностью. Но к ней вернемся в третьей части, а пока отмечу еще ряд важных моментов.

В первую очередь следует обращать внимание, сколько в каждом периоде (неделя, месяц, квартал — уже вам решать) вы разблокируете токенов. Понятно, что на практике равномерно распределить не получится — к тому же, всегда будут токены в обороте от предыдущего периода. Но учесть, что ввод в рынок наименьшего числа токенов — часто лучший вариант, все же стоит.

Самый простой способ — выводить в период 1% или схожую цифру, чтобы, с одной стороны, влияние было в рамках погрешности, а с другой — количество токенов в рынке возрастало по понятной величине. Вот конкретный пример Starknet.

Ровно по этой причине я всегда рекомендую 1% оставлять на резервный фонд:

Отсюда получаем ряд параметров, которые хорошо бы мониторить на IDO и более поздних стадиях:

Еще раз повторю фундаментальное правило: уменьшаем предложение — увеличиваем спрос и тем самым повышаем интерес к токену. Но как именно? Попробую обозначить списком.

Уменьшаем предложение следующими действиями:

Увеличиваем спрос:

Оба списка не закрыты, и к ним мы вернемся уже в третьей части исследования.

Конец второй части

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11 окт. 2024 г.

07.09.23 16:24 CherryTeam

Cherry Team atlyginimų skaičiavimo programa yra labai naudingas įrankis įmonėms, kai reikia efektyviai valdyti ir skaičiuoti darbuotojų atlyginimus. Ši programinė įranga, turinti išsamias funkcijas ir patogią naudotojo sąsają, suteikia daug privalumų, kurie padeda supaprastinti darbo užmokesčio skaičiavimo procesus ir pagerinti finansų valdymą. Štai keletas pagrindinių priežasčių, kodėl Cherry Team atlyginimų skaičiavimo programa yra naudinga įmonėms: Automatizuoti ir tikslūs skaičiavimai: Atlyginimų skaičiavimai rankiniu būdu gali būti klaidingi ir reikalauti daug laiko. Programinė įranga Cherry Team automatizuoja visą atlyginimų skaičiavimo procesą, todėl nebereikia atlikti skaičiavimų rankiniu būdu ir sumažėja klaidų rizika. Tiksliai apskaičiuodama atlyginimus, įskaitant tokius veiksnius, kaip pagrindinis atlyginimas, viršvalandžiai, premijos, išskaitos ir mokesčiai, programa užtikrina tikslius ir be klaidų darbo užmokesčio skaičiavimo rezultatus. Sutaupoma laiko ir išlaidų: Darbo užmokesčio valdymas gali būti daug darbo jėgos reikalaujanti užduotis, reikalaujanti daug laiko ir išteklių. Programa Cherry Team supaprastina ir pagreitina darbo užmokesčio skaičiavimo procesą, nes automatizuoja skaičiavimus, generuoja darbo užmokesčio žiniaraščius ir tvarko išskaičiuojamus mokesčius. Šis automatizavimas padeda įmonėms sutaupyti daug laiko ir pastangų, todėl žmogiškųjų išteklių ir finansų komandos gali sutelkti dėmesį į strategiškai svarbesnę veiklą. Be to, racionalizuodamos darbo užmokesčio operacijas, įmonės gali sumažinti administracines išlaidas, susijusias su rankiniu darbo užmokesčio tvarkymu. Mokesčių ir darbo teisės aktų laikymasis: Įmonėms labai svarbu laikytis mokesčių ir darbo teisės aktų, kad išvengtų baudų ir teisinių problemų. Programinė įranga Cherry Team seka besikeičiančius mokesčių įstatymus ir darbo reglamentus, užtikrindama tikslius skaičiavimus ir teisinių reikalavimų laikymąsi. Programa gali dirbti su sudėtingais mokesčių scenarijais, pavyzdžiui, keliomis mokesčių grupėmis ir įvairių rūšių atskaitymais, todėl užtikrina atitiktį reikalavimams ir kartu sumažina klaidų riziką. Ataskaitų rengimas ir analizė: Programa Cherry Team siūlo patikimas ataskaitų teikimo ir analizės galimybes, suteikiančias įmonėms vertingų įžvalgų apie darbo užmokesčio duomenis. Ji gali generuoti ataskaitas apie įvairius aspektus, pavyzdžiui, darbo užmokesčio paskirstymą, išskaičiuojamus mokesčius ir darbo sąnaudas. Šios ataskaitos leidžia įmonėms analizuoti darbo užmokesčio tendencijas, nustatyti tobulintinas sritis ir priimti pagrįstus finansinius sprendimus. Pasinaudodamos duomenimis pagrįstomis įžvalgomis, įmonės gali optimizuoti savo darbo užmokesčio strategijas ir veiksmingai kontroliuoti išlaidas. Integracija su kitomis sistemomis: Cherry Team programinė įranga dažnai sklandžiai integruojama su kitomis personalo ir apskaitos sistemomis. Tokia integracija leidžia automatiškai perkelti atitinkamus duomenis, pavyzdžiui, informaciją apie darbuotojus ir finansinius įrašus, todėl nebereikia dubliuoti duomenų. Supaprastintas duomenų srautas tarp sistemų padidina bendrą efektyvumą ir sumažina duomenų klaidų ar neatitikimų riziką. Cherry Team atlyginimų apskaičiavimo programa įmonėms teikia didelę naudą - automatiniai ir tikslūs skaičiavimai, laiko ir sąnaudų taupymas, atitiktis mokesčių ir darbo teisės aktų reikalavimams, ataskaitų teikimo ir analizės galimybės bei integracija su kitomis sistemomis. Naudodamos šią programinę įrangą įmonės gali supaprastinti darbo užmokesčio skaičiavimo procesus, užtikrinti tikslumą ir atitiktį reikalavimams, padidinti darbuotojų pasitenkinimą ir gauti vertingų įžvalgų apie savo finansinius duomenis. Programa Cherry Team pasirodo esanti nepakeičiamas įrankis įmonėms, siekiančioms efektyviai ir veiksmingai valdyti darbo užmokestį. https://cherryteam.lt/lt/
08.10.23 01:30 davec8080

The "Shibarium for this confirmed rug pull is a BEP-20 project not related at all to Shibarium, SHIB, BONE or LEASH. The Plot Thickens. Someone posted the actual transactions!!!! https://bscscan.com/tx/0xa846ea0367c89c3f0bbfcc221cceea4c90d8f56ead2eb479d4cee41c75e02c97 It seems the article is true!!!! And it's also FUD. Let me explain. Check this link: https://bscscan.com/token/0x5a752c9fe3520522ea88f37a41c3ddd97c022c2f So there really is a "Shibarium" token. And somebody did a rug pull with it. CONFIRMED. But the "Shibarium" token for this confirmed rug pull is a BEP-20 project not related at all to Shibarium, SHIB, BONE or LEASH.
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26.06.24 18:46 Jacobethannn098

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04.07.24 04:49 ZionNaomi

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13.07.24 21:13 michaelharrell825

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17.07.24 02:26 thompsonrickey

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27.08.24 12:50 James889900

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02.09.24 20:24 [email protected]

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06.09.24 01:35 Celinagarcia

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06.09.24 01:44 Celinagarcia

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23.09.24 18:56 matthewshimself

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02.10.24 22:27 Emily Hunter

Can those who have fallen victim to fraud get their money back? Yes, you might be able to get back what was taken from you if you fell prey to a fraud from an unregulated investing platform or any other scam, but only if you report it to the relevant authorities. With the right plan and supporting documentation, you can get back what you've lost. Most likely, the individuals in control of these unregulated platforms would attempt to convince you that what happened to your money was a sad accident when, in fact, it was a highly skilled heist. You should be aware that there are resources out there to help you if you or someone you know has experienced one of these circumstances. Do a search using (deftrecoup (.) c o m). Do not let the perpetrators of this hoaxes get away with ruining you mentally and financially.
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31.10.24 00:13 ytre89

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02.11.24 14:44 diannamendoza732

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12.11.24 00:50 TERESA

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21.11.24 08:02 Emily Hunter

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22.11.24 04:41 [email protected]

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