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Субъективный взгляд на перспективы Больших Языковых Моделей

Прошло около полугода после последней моей статьи о перспективах развития больших языковых моделей. Чтобы не утомлять долгим чтением, её краткое резюме:
Критика современных больших языковых моделей (БЯМ): они статичны, неэффективны в вычислениях и обучении, что ведет индустрию к технологическому тупику. Главные проблемы связаны с экспоненциальным ростом вычислительных мощностей, дефицитом качественных данных и ограничениями архитектуры.

Итак, можно подвести некоторые итоги, что же мы увидели за прошедшее время.

  1. Прежде всего появление "думающих" моделей. Именно в кавычках, поскольку подобное "думание" по факту лишь имитация саморефлексии, а по сути - генерация разновидности расширенного промпта самой моделью, который, что вполне ожидаемо, увеличивает качество ответов. Можно ли это назвать прорывом? Если посмотреть на стоимость токена такой "генерации", то я бы скорее назвал это провалом. Ни о каком практическом применении такой технологии при таких ценах нет и быть не может, а потому OpenAI продолжает считать убытки. Зачем вообще было выпускать подобный продукт? Все просто: маркетинг. Инвесторы вложились и ждут новых продуктов, новых технологий и нужно кинуть им какую-то кость. Наследник GPT-4o где-то застрял по дороге, а конкуренты дышат в затылок и норовят обойти на повороте. В итоге на коленке ваяется поделка, которую любой уважающий себя девелопер за пару дней может сделать самостоятельно, и выдается за новое достижение.

  2. Проблемы отрасли никуда не делись - новых качественных данных нет, принципиальных архитектурных прорывов тоже. Можно сказать, что отрасль от этапа бурного развития переходит к перевариванию достигнутого, модели оптимизируются, повышается качество данных, попутно производя много информационного шума и подковерного меряния результатами тестов.

  3. Из положительных моментов можно отметить то, что технология достигла той стадии зрелости, когда на ее основе можно решать прикладные задачи: агентные системы различного назначения, RAG-системы и это действительно очень позитивно. Прежде всего тем, что мы, как цивилизация, начали новый этап автоматизации, теперь уже интеллектуального труда.

  4. Из перспектив - грандиозный проект Stargate. Альтман видимо нашел нужные подходы и для удовлетворения своих амбиций готов переходить к освоению уже не десятков, а сотен миллиардов долларов. Есть ли технологическая база под такой проект? Мне видится, что нет, а вот желание распилить полутриллионный бюджет есть. Что и будет осуществляться в ближайшие 4 года. А там глядишь что-то еще придумают, что можно будет выдать за грандиозный прорыв. А пока прорыв будет у NVIDIA и энергетических компаний, главных бенефициаров. И если AMD решит свои программные проблемы, то может и ей что-то перепадет.

  5. Обещанная технологическая сингулярность никак не наступает. Перефразируя старый анекдот: то энергии не хватает, то данные не подвезли.

Но это все лирика. Если же посмотреть в корень проблемы всех больших языковых моделей, даже не затрагивая архитектурных особенностей, то он прежде всего в том, что модели именно языковые. А что есть язык? Язык - это форма последовательного выражения состояния сознания. По сути - протокол передачи информации. Можно ли понять как работает сложное устройство и воссоздать его, изучая лишь его информационные протоколы сопряжения? Думаю вопрос риторический. Языковая модель обучается лишь на продукте сознания, она не думает, а имитирует мышление, обобщая и копируя паттерны рассуждений из доступных ей данных. Ведь не будем забывать, что искусственная нейронная сеть - это прежде всего великий аппроксиматор и это то, что она делает действительно хорошо.
Мы по прежнему не знаем и не понимаем, как работает наше сознание. Когнитивная психология, несмотря на все ее достижения, только в начале этого длинного и сложного пути. А без понимания работы сознания невозможно создать ни систему подобную ему, ни, тем более, превосходящую его. Сложность биологического нейрона на многие порядки сложнее его искусственного прототипа. И это даже не беря во внимание вопрос о возможных квантовых эффектах в нем, о чем до сих пор нет единого мнения у исследователей.
Все, что делает большая языковая модель - это строит модель всех возможных цепочек рассуждений, доступных ей в выраженной человеком форме. И если мы дадим ей задачу, прототипа которой не существовало и она не обучалась ее решать, то ее ожидает провал. Хотя человек, имея достаточно знаний и информации, ее решит. Потому что человек в своем мозгу строит модель мира, со всеми его проявлениями и свойствами и умеет этой моделью пользоваться.

Резюмируя все вышесказанное: AGI в ближайшее время не будет - расходимся. Будем улучшать и осваивать то, что есть, повышать производительность интеллектуального труда и избавляться от интеллектуальной рутины.

Господа прикладники - ваш выход!

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    Hi. Please be wise, do not make the same mistake I had made in the past, I was a victim of bitcoin scam, I saw a glamorous review showering praises and marketing an investment firm, I reached out to them on what their contracts are, and I invested $28,000, which I was promised to get my first 15% profit in weeks, when it’s time to get my profits, I got to know the company was bogus, they kept asking me to invest more and I ran out of patience then requested to have my money back, they refused to answer nor refund my funds, not until a friend of mine introduced me to the NVIDIA TECH HACKERS, so I reached out and after tabling my complaints, they were swift to action and within 36 hours I got back my funds with the due profit. I couldn’t contain the joy in me. I urge you guys to reach out to NVIDIA TECH HACKERS on their email: [email protected]

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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