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«Спавший 100 лет кит перевел все биткоины мира на FTX». Критический взгляд на ончейн-аналитику

Принятие и развитие крипторынка привели к рождению целых бизнес-направлений и дисциплин. Одним из самых популярных нововведений на рынке стал сектор аналитики ончейн-данных.

Это направление позволяет на основе информации о поведении пользователей и инвесторов прогнозировать изменение цены актива. Подобная аналитика основана или включает данные, взятые из блокчейнов.

Несмотря на удобство инструмента для профессиональных трейдеров и рядовых пользователей, он несет в себе множество рисков. Разберем, как именно данные аналитиков используются для манипуляций сообществом и рынком.

Чаще всего под ончейн-анализом подразумевают мониторинг транзакций. Предполагается, что перемещение монет и токенов, как и другая извлекаемая из блокчейна информация, могут указать на мотивы пользователей с инвестиционной и спекулятивной точек зрения.


Популяризация этого направления началась с появлением первых ончейн-индикаторов. Их бум пришелся на 2016-2017 годы. В то время появились практически все основные инструменты, в том числе Hodl Waves, NVT Ratio, MVRV Ratio, мультипликатор Пьюэлла, Hash Ribbons.

Однако популярность ончейн-рынка, приток новых наблюдателей и участников отрасли могут стать проблемой для крипторынка. И вот почему.

Сервис Whale Alert по состоянию на июнь 2024 года имеет более 2,4 млн подписчиков в социальной сети X, а его сообщения могут служить поводом для покупки или продажи тех или иных активов. Несмотря на огромную пользовательскую базу, платформа периодически отмечает транзакции как подозрительные на свое усмотрение и распространяет недостоверную информацию.

Так, 1 апреля 2022 года Whale Alert опубликовал пост о том, что с принадлежащего бирже Mt.Gox адреса переведено 6800 BTC на неизвестный кошелек.

🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 6,800 #BTC (318,980,017 USD) transferred from #MtGox Cold Wallet to unknown wallethttps://t.co/sYczH1c8ho

Вскоре выяснилось, что транзакция не имеет никакого отношения к торговой площадке, но СМИ успели подхватить «вброс». Дезинформация распространялась стремительно. Этому способствовало то, что несколькими днями ранее директор биржи Марк Карпелес сообщил о планах перераспределить BTC на сумму $6 млрд среди своих кредиторов. Сложно подсчитать, сколько пользователей могли совершить «панические» сделки на основе этой информации.

Whale Alert нередко ошибается в периоды рыночных стрессов. В 2020 году сервис указал на передвижения BTC с адреса все той же биржи Mt.Gox в день, когда BitMEX объявила о смене руководства. А произошло это через неделю после того, как власти США предъявили обвинения основателям компании.

95 #BTC (1,006,164 USD) transferred from #MtGox Cold Wallet to unknown wallet

Tx: https://t.co/GIzKcAHtYe whale_alert

Эти два события — лишь малая часть многочисленных ошибок сервиса. При этом все адреса биржи Mt.Gox были известны сообществу много лет, но Whale Alert помечал их на свое усмотрение, позже выдавая информацию об ошибке при маркировке.

Это важно, ведь недостоверные данные приводят к искаженному пониманию рыночной ситуации, что может принести финансовые и репутационные потери.

Нередко такие сервисы могут просто не знать, кому именно принадлежат биткоины. Так, в декабре 2018 года ведущая американская биржа Coinbase переместила 5% BTC, 8% ETH и 25% LTC от общей эмиссии этих монет на то время. Интересно, что никто не знал, чьи это активы, пока биржа сама не заявила об этом.

Конечно, рынок ончейн-анализа развился за прошедшие годы, но его ошибки остались теми же. А учитывая растущую популярность рынка блокчейн-данных, доверчивые пользователи могут перенять эти заблуждения и применять недостоверные знания в будущих торговых или инвестиционных решениях.

Для понимания сути основных ошибок в аналитике и составлении мнения на основе передвижения монет и токенов нужно знать, как устроен процесс зачисления депозитов и выводов на биржах и других платформах.

Как видно из схемы выше, до перевода на горячий или холодный биржевой кошелек средства зачисляются на личный адрес пользователя, который площадка создала специально для него. Сначала активы поступают туда и, в зависимости от алгоритмов платформы, могут лежать там очень долгое время, прежде чем поступят на известный кошелек.

Все хоть раз читали новости о том, что «неизвестный кит перевел N тысяч BTC на биржу X»? Это и есть первая и главная ошибка при аналитике транзакций. Сервисы вроде Whale Alert чаще всего показывают транзакцию, которую торговая площадка переводит сама себе с биржевого адреса пользователя.

Мы видим ситуацию, в которой активы могут уже давно быть на бирже и пользователь уже обменял или вывел их на другую площадку. А наблюдателям показали внутребирживую операцию, когда депозиты трейдеров собираются вместе и отправляются на другой горячий адрес или вовсе на холодное хранение.

Свежий пример таких сообщений: 13 728 ETH переведены из неизвестного кошелька на Coinbase.

🚨 🚨 13,728 #ETH (47,338,996 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to #Coinbasehttps://t.co/475jGqQ9ln

Обычно такие «новости» преподносят в следующем виде: «Киты заводят ETH на биржу для продажи». Это особенно часто происходит в периоды стрессов на рынке. Если же углубиться в транзакции и историю переводов на упомянутом в сообщении адресе, то видна совсем другая информация.

Etherscan показал, что его пополняли напрямую из кошелька Coinbase за семь дней до этого, после чего отправили обратно прямым переводом. Следовательно, весьма вероятно, что это промежуточный биржевой адрес, не имеющий ничего общего с пользователями и депозитом из внешней среды.

Еще одна распространенная на рынке ошибка относится к приписыванию транзакции цели. Важно понимать, что блокчейн никак не раскрывает мотивы проведения операции. Мы можем только догадываться о действительных причинах активности.

Если на рынке DeFi-приложений в блокчейне показаны все действия пользователя, то обычный перевод монет с адреса на адрес оставляет слишком много вариантов. Мы не можем видеть, что и по какой причине происходит внутри централизованной структуры. Для примера возьмем вышеописанный перевод на биржу Coinbase. Здесь возможны следующие варианты:

Стоит учитывать популярность таких данных у массового пользователя. Это создает почву для манипуляций общественным мнением в корыстных целях.

Даже если предположения о цели транзакции окажутся верными, то отсутствие полной картины происходящего все равно может привести к неэффективным решениям. А информация об операции будет использована для влияния на сообщество.

В качестве примера вспомним, какую информацию осенью 2023 года использовали инфлюенсеры и аналитики, обсуждая продажу активов обанкротившейся биржи FTX.

«Свыше $1,5 млрд в SOL, SPL-токенах и „обернутых” биткоинах на адресе FTX в Solana перемещаются. Похоже, они готовятся к потенциальным распродажам.Следите за этим, особенно за ~$200 млн в биткоинах на Solana», — сообщил Pump House.

План предполагал, что бирже разрешат продавать токены на сумму не более $100 млн в неделю с возможностью увеличения лимита. А общая стоимость этих активов составила порядка $7 млрд.

Теперь обратим внимание на график стоимости биткоина и SOL после начала таких передвижений.

С начала сентября 2023 года курс биткоина и SOL вырос в разы. Нетрудно заметить, как разошлись прогнозы относительно продажи активов FTX с реальным поведением рынка.

Трейдеры и инвесторы, подверженные панике и принимающие мнение аналитиков и инфлюенсеров за чистую монету, могли выбрать неэффективную стратегию и потерять средства.

Текст: Олег Cash Coin

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    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 12.10.25 01:12 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 12.10.25 19:53 Tonerdomark

    A crook swiped my Dogecoin. It ruined my whole world. Then Mr. Sylvester showed up. He fixed it all. He pulled back €211,000 for me. Not one cent missing from my profits. His steady cool and sharp tech know-how won back my trust. I got my money smooth and sound. After endless worry, relief hit me hard. I trusted him completely. Lost cash to a scam? Hit him up now at { yt7cracker@gmail . com }. His aid turned my life around. WhatsApp at +1 512 577 7957.

  • 12.10.25 21:36 blessing

    Writing this review is a joy. Marie has provided excellent service ever since I started working with her in early 2018. I was worried I wouldn't be able to get my coins back after they were stolen by hackers. I had no idea where to begin, therefore it was a nightmare for me. However, things became easier for me after my friend sent me to [email protected] and +1 7127594675 on WhatsApp. I'm happy that she was able to retrieve my bitcoin so that I could resume trading.

  • 13.10.25 01:11 elizabethrush89

    God bless Capital Crypto Recover Services for the marvelous work you did in my life, I have learned the hard way that even the most sensible investors can fall victim to scams. When my USD was stolen, for anyone who has fallen victim to one of the bitcoin binary investment scams that are currently ongoing, I felt betrayal and upset. But then I was reading a post on site when I saw a testimony of Wendy Taylor online who recommended that Capital Crypto Recovery has helped her recover scammed funds within 24 hours. after reaching out to this cyber security firm that was able to help me recover my stolen digital assets and bitcoin. I’m genuinely blown away by their amazing service and professionalism. I never imagined I’d be able to get my money back until I complained to Capital Crypto Recovery Services about my difficulties and gave all of the necessary paperwork. I was astounded that it took them 12 hours to reclaim my stolen money back. Without a doubt, my USDT assets were successfully recovered from the scam platform, Thank you so much Sir, I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover for any of your bitcoin recovery, digital funds recovery, hacking, and cybersecurity concerns. You reach them Call/Text Number +1 (336)390-6684 His Email: [email protected] Contact Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Via Contact: [email protected] His website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 13.10.25 01:11 elizabethrush89

    God bless Capital Crypto Recover Services for the marvelous work you did in my life, I have learned the hard way that even the most sensible investors can fall victim to scams. When my USD was stolen, for anyone who has fallen victim to one of the bitcoin binary investment scams that are currently ongoing, I felt betrayal and upset. But then I was reading a post on site when I saw a testimony of Wendy Taylor online who recommended that Capital Crypto Recovery has helped her recover scammed funds within 24 hours. after reaching out to this cyber security firm that was able to help me recover my stolen digital assets and bitcoin. I’m genuinely blown away by their amazing service and professionalism. I never imagined I’d be able to get my money back until I complained to Capital Crypto Recovery Services about my difficulties and gave all of the necessary paperwork. I was astounded that it took them 12 hours to reclaim my stolen money back. Without a doubt, my USDT assets were successfully recovered from the scam platform, Thank you so much Sir, I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover for any of your bitcoin recovery, digital funds recovery, hacking, and cybersecurity concerns. You reach them Call/Text Number +1 (336)390-6684 His Email: [email protected] Contact Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Via Contact: [email protected] His website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 01:15 tyleradams

    Hi. Please be wise, do not make the same mistake I had made in the past, I was a victim of bitcoin scam, I saw a glamorous review showering praises and marketing an investment firm, I reached out to them on what their contracts are, and I invested $28,000, which I was promised to get my first 15% profit in weeks, when it’s time to get my profits, I got to know the company was bogus, they kept asking me to invest more and I ran out of patience then requested to have my money back, they refused to answer nor refund my funds, not until a friend of mine introduced me to the NVIDIA TECH HACKERS, so I reached out and after tabling my complaints, they were swift to action and within 36 hours I got back my funds with the due profit. I couldn’t contain the joy in me. I urge you guys to reach out to NVIDIA TECH HACKERS on their email: [email protected]

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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