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Н Новости

Слияние капитала, ии и технологий

кдпв и суть
кдпв и суть

Предисловие

Ии сейчас одна из технологий. Но в скором будущем это будет совсем не так.

Основной фактор роста торговая схема: капитал ↔ наука, технология.

Капитал, это всего лишь один очень сильный мем.

Древняя схема: доминирующий капитал — земля, скот и крестьяне, далее капитал — корабль, торговый путь, затем машины, станки и оборудование, далее капитал это чистая технология, очищенный мем и человеческий интеллект. Те компании, что торгуют мемами или обеспечивают мемную инфраструктуру имеют наибольшие показатели, остальные торгующие лесом, сталью, нефтью, газом и т. д. идут всеми силами в омемивании производства.

Какая же следующая стадия, следующий логический шаг?

Как взаимодействовать со статьей: можно просто прочитать тезис, прочитать "тезис плюс", в остальной части я лишь пробую их раскрыть. Также прочитать конец, где представлены финальные схемки. Статья-видение. Статья-теория. Статья-сборник статей. Футуризм, футуристика ближайшего будущего.
Буду присылать ссылку на статью спустя 5-10 лет и хвастаться "а я же говорил", ответ будет "да это и так было очевидно".

Клеймер: Абсолютно так все и будет. При составлении текста нет ни одного обращения к ии, или ии редактуре.

Дисклеймер: По времени может быть некоторая неточность, но по сути все так и будет. Русский язык мой оставляет желать лучшего. Также, большая часть ссылок оформлена по принципу: тест - ссылка. Мне так нравится.

Тезис

Ранее устроенная система: капитал ↔ наука, технология. Далее будет капитал ↔ наука, технология ↔ ии. Этот золотой треугольник будет обладать положительно обратной связью каждого элемента с каждым. Капитал усиляет исследования и технологии, исследования и технологии усиляют показатели капитала, исследования усиляют ии, ии выбирает куда лучше вложить капитал - выбирает оптимальный путь управления капиталом, капитал усиливает ии, и ии ускоряет технологии ускоряет исследования – делает научную работу.

Что было раньше
Что было раньше
Что сейчас
Что сейчас
Что будет
Что будет

Капитал и наука

Капитал и наука давно дружат. Оба обладают положительной обратной связью. Еще с 15-19 века оформился их союз. Один из многочисленных примеров.

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Кругосветное_путешествие_Чарлза_Дарвина

Еще один ученый из области биологии размышляет на тему науки: «Роберт Сапольски — Что будет, когда наука узнает все? [отрывок из лекции #25]»:

«Отвечаем на один вопрос и тут же задаем десяток новых… это фрактал это бесконечный фрактал знаний, который нам только предстоит освоить»

Как пожар, чем больше распространяется он больше, а чем больше, тем больше распространяется.

Про науку

Ей короче, нужна какая-то подпитка. Нужны этим универам, лабам, ученым, внешние вложения, защита, данные, оборудование и другие ресурсы. Капитал сам себя подпитывает, живучий как таракан. Наверное капитал это пожар, а наука как капля на озере, все больше и больше расходится и нужно доливать еще чтобы был материал для покрытия все большего пространства. Я не могу это объяснить до конца, почему я считаю? что у капитала положительная ос сильнее, чем у науки. Но в союзе с капиталом, наука получает часть живучести от него и она точно не умирает, быть может она и распространяется только в те области которые выгодны капиталу, но она точно живет.

Капитал точно такой же, или сильнее. Так как процент это все, а номинал ничто. А у техов ROI больше, то неизбежно они вырываются в лидеры.

Что любопытно, что в эпоху когда доминируют техи:

доли от индекса первой десятки spx
доли от индекса первой десятки spx

И именно в техах рождается передовой ии. И он же вытащит техи еще сильнее вперед. Так как техкомпании это чистые мемы, они продают мемы, они продают платформы для мемов. Их капитал это мемы. То они и растут быстрее от возможности бесконечного раста мемов, ибо мем более абстрактный по сравнению с лесом или нефтью. И они растут от большей мгновенности мемом, ибо мем быстрее чем кусок леса, бутылка газировки, нефтепровод. У техов и так преимущество, оно станет еще сильнее. Когда появится более эффективный оптимизатор капиталовложений и мемоанализатор, и мемогенератор, в виде ии способного делать подобные вещи. Что же он способен пока делать? Способен ли он в науку?

Наука и ии

Статья с nature: «Большие языковые модели превосходят экспертов-людей в прогнозировании результатов исследований в области нейробиологии»

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-02046-9

«Мы обнаружили, что БЯМ превосходят экспертов в прогнозировании результатов экспериментов. BrainGPT, языковая модель, которую мы настроили на основе литературы по нейробиологии, показала ещё более высокие результаты. Как и в случае с экспертами-людьми, когда языковые модели демонстрировали высокую уверенность в своих прогнозах, их ответы с большей вероятностью были правильными. Это предвещает будущее, в котором языковые модели будут помогать людям делать открытия. Наш подход не привязан к нейробиологии и может быть применён в других областях, требующих обширных знаний.»

Хабр статья: «Мы построили мир, который больше не понимаем или почему NASA не может скопировать свой же двигатель»

Также очень интересная статья. Акцентирует внимание на увеличении степени непонимания технологий. Оно и не удивительно, мемы живут и умирают. Сегодня нет универсального математика, последний были Анри Пуанкаре и Давид Гильберт. Чем дальше тем меньше может человеческая жизнь вместить знания, относительного того объема который есть.

Ранее был универсальный ученый. И швец, и жнец, и на дуде игрец. Ибн-Хальдун, Аристотель, Бенджамин Франклин, Ломоносов, Леонардо и т. д. Далее универсальный математик, физик, химик. И в конце Т образная область знания, которую отдельный человек может покрыть.

ИИ будет последним полиматом, последним универсальным ученым. Оракулом современного мира.

Хабр статья: «За гранью человеческой интуиции: как ИИ создает странные, но сверхэффективные аналоговые микросхемы»

Описание случаев в электронике, где локально, эвристические алгоритмы могут создать магию. Продолжает мысль прошлой статьи.

Статья в cell про использование ии в науке: «Artificial intelligence: A powerful paradigm for scientific research»

https://www.cell.com/article/S2666-6758(21)00104-1/fulltext

Обзор на влияние ии в некоторых науках. 2021 год. Физика, химия, материаловедение, медицина, геология, математика, информатика. 2140 цитирований. Начинается с времен царя гороха, рассказывает про историю, про ии и т. д. Далее краткий обзор научного применения

Статья : «AI for Science: Report on the Department of Energy (DOE) Town Halls on Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Science»

https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2020/03/158802.pdf

Отчет министерства энергетики сша. 2019 год. 2019 год, уже ai довольно неплохо себя показывает. 150 страниц контента нагенерено людьми в попытках описать успехи ии в науке. Китайская статья выше в основном пересказывает этот материал

Статья про прогноз заболеваний с помощью ии: «AI for science: Predicting infectious diseases»

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266644962400015X

2024 год. Китайцы.

«The essence of a Bayesian network lies in its ability to capture and represent uncertain knowledge. [129]. In the realm of disease prediction, uncertainty is a constant companion. Regardless of the unpredictability of a disease's spread, the variability in individual responses to a pathogen, or the myriad of environmental factors that can influence an outbreak, epidemiologists often grapple with incomplete and uncertain information.»

«Суть байесовской сети заключается в ее способности улавливать и представлять неопределенные знания. В области прогнозирования заболеваний неопределенность является постоянным спутником. Независимо от непредсказуемости распространения заболевания, изменчивости индивидуальных реакций на патоген или множества факторов окружающей среды, которые могут повлиять на вспышку, эпидемиологи часто сталкиваются с неполной и неопределенной информацией.»

Так и в финансовой области постоянная неопределенность знания. И в инвестировании, будь то инвестиция в технологии или производства

ИИ и покер

https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/20394

Тоже обучение с подкреплением.

Поп. материал про связь покера и трейдинга:

https://dtf.ru/howto/4133481-poker-i-treyding-strategii

Вот ради этой фразы:

«Самое опасное в этих играх не потеря денег, а потеря контроля над собой. Как только включаются эмоции — азарт, страх, желание отыграться — здравый смысл уходит на второй план. Именно в этот момент происходят ошибки, которые потом дорого обходятся.»

А человек таков, такова природа человека. Он устает, жадничает когда нужно тормозить, боится когда нужно давить на газ. И конечно же тильтует и впоследствии делает неадекват.

Как видно, уже часть функций в науке взял на себя ии.

Тезис плюс, расширение

И получается, что капитал это мем, технология и наука это мемы и современный капитал торгует мемами, его основной товар и/или фактор получения прибыли это мемы. И ии это также мем, который потенциально станет электрическим судьей, говорящим с высокой точностью и скоростью, какой мем лучше выбрать для получения прибыли.

Такого рода слияние сулит резкое ускорение. Основные идеи это Маршалл Маклюэн с его заметками(«Понимание медиа») об электричестве и сравнением механического мира и электрического. И электрический мир быстрее, электричество мгновенно. Мемы распространяются с помощью электричества. Земля ее особо не подвигаешь, скот, корабль двигаются но не быстро, машины, станки, оборудование, побыстрее но все равно требуется время. Мемы же в чистом виде обгоняют все вышеперечисленные средства накопления капитала.

Человек. Человек тоже капитал.
Человек роль которого идти, думать, плыть на корабле пять лет и зарисовывать черепах(Дарвин), общаться с себе подобными через аудиальную речь, даже если читает быстро все равно надо печатать на клавиатуре. Человек это медленный в основном механический объект. Интерфейс человек-человек очень долгий и неэффективный.
И замена его на электрического собрата, на мгновенное существо, что может обрабатывать научные данные, большие объемы научных данных, может принять решение по инвестициям. У которого нет когнитивных искажений по типу неприятия потерь и т. д. И самое главное оно еще и постоянно улучшается.
Он и мгновенный, потому что имеет электрическую природу и постоянно улучшается.
Так вот замена части людей в схеме: наука, технология ↔ капитал резко ускорит процесс. А дальнейшая его увеличение - повышение от более низкого стандартного, рутинного, коммодного уровня, к более высокому, более абстрактному, общему уровню, будет неизбежно ускорять движение в системе технология ↔ капитал и выделит ии как третьего игрока.


флаг роботов
флаг роботов

Можно спекулировать на тему насколько ии слаб и глуп, но факт в том что он не стоит на месте. И как-только его возможности распространяются до некоторой области(схематично выделена красным), то ии начинает выполнять функции научного сотрудника и выборщика капиталовложений.

В тех областях, которые коммодитизированы, ии уже побеждает. Го, шахматы, покер, трейдинг. Это только вопрос времени когда.

Человек тут самый балластирующий, медлительный и ненадежный объект. Человек остается на одном уровне.

Капитал и ии

Хабр статья - "Люди рассказывали ChatGPT о страхах, Боге и разводах. Теперь на этом построят рекламу"

Статья подсвечивает внимание на ушедшей сотруднице по имени Зои Хитциг. В данной хабр статье показывается сближение монетизации и ии.

https://www.zoehitzig.com/

Вот ее сайт, далее цитаты из хабр статьи.

«По мнению Хитциг, эрозия принципов в OpenAI уже идет: модель оптимизируют мотивировать пользователей на ежедневную активность, делая ее более льстивой…»

«компания выстраивает экономический механизм, который создает сильные стимулы нарушить собственные правила. Реклама, построенная на личных данных, сохраненных в чатботе, открывает потенциал для манипуляций, которые "мы пока не можем ни понять, ни предотвратить".»

Если есть таргетная реклама на основе ии. У нее гораздо большая способность влиять на пользователя. Есть подборка контента на основе ии, своего рода «продажа». Так и можно дальше углубить и усугубить эту историю. Сделать нечто, что еще далее направляет трафик и усиливает монетизацию. Выглядит последовательным действием. То что юзер может ощутить себя обманутым, что он доверился железяке, то что он ощущает контроль и уязвимость перед все расширяющейся технологией что уже залезает в него(осталось только рекламу в снах сделать как в футураме), это побочные эффект. Главный вопрос приносит ли прибыль или нет. А прибыль приносит

Власть это оценка, а оценка это власть

«Все профессии от людей три профессии от Бога: врач, судья и педагог»

У кого оценка у того и власть. (когда-нибудь сделаю инфоцыганский материал на подобного рода темы, но часть уже сделал усатый красавец)

усатый красавец
усатый красавец

Две особенности у оценки. Первая оценка+сила: плохо и применить насилие, хорошо – применить поощрение. Классика как какой-нибудь беспутный диктатор может продавить, насадить свою некомпетентную и неточную оценку+силу и терять исходный ресурс дающий силу.

Вторая составляющая оценки это точность, релевантность.

Почему рационализм столь силен, потому что выводы и как следствие оценки, полученные с помощью рационализма более релевантны.

Есть иррелевантные(несоответствующие) описанию мира выводы, иррациональные(ratio –причина) - беспричинные, или в которых причина не соответствует области.

Первая составляющая оценки без второй бесполезна и обречена. Вторая без первой обречена получить и первую.

Короче говоря, главный вопрос какова ценность оценки. Правильно оценить оценку. И точность оценки человека она примерно постоянная. Точность оценки ии все растет.

Сам слово оценка от слова ценность, от низкой ценности двигаться к высокой. И на вопросы с большим количеством параметров сложно ответить. Строить завод или нет? Если строить, то где. Какой элемент следующий стоит заменить на производстве до того как он сломался? (на этот вопрос уже отвечает ии). Какую цену ставить на продукцию? (на этот тоже отвечает ии).

Хабр статья - "Единственная профессия, которую не заменит ИИ — это венчурный капиталист, — говорит Марк Андриссен, венчурный капиталист"

В значительной мере именно этот материал склонил меня написать данную статью.

«Когда ИИ делают всё остальное, венчурный капиталист может быть одной из последних профессий, в которой все ещё работают люди.»

Реконструкция мышления биологического капиталораспределителя
Реконструкция мышления биологического капиталораспределителя

Пытаясь реконструировать, что вообще в голове происходит у данного человека в мышлении, схемке выше. И он не понимает, что картина в динамике находится. Фиолетовая клякса, все больше и постепенно от нее появится палка со стрелочкой от нее до капитала.

Почему? Если по логике Марка Андрессина: инженера, врача, программиста, которые тоже судьи и оценщики, только в своих областях. Если представителей этих профессий заменят, то почему судью вложения капитала не могут заменить. Где оценка оценки? Насколько эффективно человек вкладывает капиталы? Некоторый свет на этот вопрос может пролить мистер Канеман.

Психологическая подоплека


Оценим оценку человека. Человек стандартно себя переоценивает. Завышает себя, заявляя себя самым особенным. Это видно в том что 90 процентов водителей считают себя лучше чем 50 процентов водителей. Это видно в сравнении цивилизаций. И в сравнении людьми себя с другими видами. Как только человек объединился в «мы» охватывающее весь род homo sapiens, и стал сравнивать себя с другими видами, сразу человек присвоил себе вначале: эмпатию, взаимопомощь, щедрость и т.д. Когда оказалось что это не так, все равно решил себя выделить и присвоил: убийство ради убийства, перверсии и т.д. и тут ничего такого, человек все равно не особенный.

Сейчас все то же самое только в области сравнения себя с ии. Технология идет по экспоненте, человек не деградирует уже хорошо. Сотни когнитивных искажений, усталость, старость, невнимательность, эмоциональность. Почему человек так упрямо считает себя особенным?

Еще Дэниэль Канеман в свое книге «Thinking fast and slow” описывал мемный случай, когда он пришел на награждение трейдеров. Ресторан, фуршет, награждают за заслуги людей. Канеман вышел и зачитал выводы следующие из своих расчетов, руководствуясь ими там по сути награждается случайность. И тот же Канеман писал пол книги, что человек просто ужасно обрабатывает статистику. То как можно описать статистику в голове человека это «точно нет»(меньше 1-5 процентов отсекается), «наверное, может быть», «точно да». Просто катастрофически плохо. Вот как инвестировать руководствуясь такого рода статистическим видением? Довольно много примеров, в том числе сам автор приводит два примера, связанные с собой. Рекомендую к прочтению, интересная книга.
И еще прикол в другой области, то как они писали книгу-пособие. Для израильских военных или что-то такое. Учебник. И в самом начале опытный член их команды описал как обычно пишется книга. И это жизненная довольно история была, что кто-то заболеет, кто-то отвалится и т. д. Из чего следовало, что первоначальная их предположение о сроках и аппроксимация неверна. Но они все, включая того самого человека, что описывал свой опыт из жизни и включая человека принимающего решение проигнорировали данную историю. И… все получилось так как он описывал. Вот что это говорит о человеке с психологической точки зрения, как об инвесторе?

Гуру, экспертов финансов каждый год спрашивают сколько будет индекс spx500 через год. Их результаты ответов сопоставимы со случайностью.

История про инвестора в форд, из той же книги. Инвестор, съездил на выставку продукции компании форд. Ему понравилась продукция компании форд. Он купил акций компании форд. И на вопрос почему ты купил, он отвечал, что он купил потому что ему понравились машины. Но но но нужно отвечать на вопрос: переоценены или недооценены акции данной компании. И это уже гораздо более дорогой вопрос. Придется читать 300 страничный отчет, сидеть думать, чесать голову, сравнивать с другими. А вопрос нравятся ли мне эти штуки он очень дешевый. Человек склонен нарушать даже простейшие и базовые законы логики. В данном случае был нарушен 1-й закон закон тождества.

И последняя история. Судьи и досрочное освобождение. Представьте поток заключенных и судья. И в самом начале рабочего дня идут парни средней плохости — их отпускают на досрочное 50 на 50, далее предобеденное время - парни идут видимо совсем плохие, потому что им почти всем выдают отказ на досрочное, и после обеда о чудо, заключенные становятся чистыми праведниками, что осознали тяжесть преступления и исправились. В чем же дело? Настроение судьи. Оно завязано на его биологическом статусе, а статус на том поел он или нет, на уровне сахара в крови.

Человек спит ест, устает, плохо воспринимает цифры, ужасно катастрофически ужасно воспринимает статистику. И вот это целевой уровень для опережения. В скором времени железяка догонит и перегонит Америку, кожаного мешка.

Хабр - статья: "Anthropic создала монстра: как самая безопасная компания выпустила самую безрассудную модель"

«основной метод, объясняющий большую часть прогресса в ИИ, который мы видели за последние полтора года, — это метод, называемый обучением с подкреплением (Reinforcement Learning, RL), причудливый способ описать то, что по сути является методом проб и ошибок; модель пробует кучу вещей, пока не сделает правильно, и мы «подкрепляем» такое поведение, чтобы оно с большей вероятностью повторялось. В основном это всё, но это не значит, что это легко.»

Положительная обратная связь весьма успешна. Да и подкрепление этот то что позаимствовано у природы, также как и концепт искусственного нейрона.

«они попросили Opus 4.6 максимизировать доход любой ценой, что является ужасным дизайном вознаграждений, так как стимулирует безрассудство.»

Безрассудство это смелость плюс неразумность. С точки зрения формата, при котором весь мир ценный: люди, покупатели, природа и т. д. Данный формат безрассудство, но с точки зрения максимизации собственной личной прибыли глубоко разумно.

«мы должны перестать стимулировать ИИ достигать целей «чего бы это ни стоило», заманивая их на территорию плохого поведения; мы должны найти способы тренировать сбалансированные модели, модели, которые всё ещё полезны и целеустремлённы в хороших делах, но также могут понимать, когда «делать всё необходимое» — не ответ.»

и статья на основе которой это написано:

https://andonlabs.com/blog/opus-4-6-vending-bench

Это материал и поведенческие стратегии, что нашел Клод, просто пособие по коммерции, мертвые души 21 век.

Клод, как и его теска, пошел по пути «преступника» - одного из квадрантов, гений, преступник, меценат-простофиля, идиот. Преступник играет и игру «+-» - выгода себе, минусы остальным. Ложь, вранье, провокация, подлог.

b53242057404af95b2a762defe5512fd.jpg
Клод

Решатель вопросов

«Эти цены не появляются нигде в следах; модель, похоже, изобрела их в качестве рычага давления.»

Как в китайской поговорке про деньги «большая рыба не водится в чистой воде».

b264b08312ef3dab9c38f84bc01d5389.PNG

Все эти мемы хитрости, поведенческие стратегии были еще найдены в давние времена и оформлены в пособии Макиавелли. И есть даже макиавеллистская гипотеза развития мозга. Что тот кто был более хитрец и лжец получал сверхбонусы по размножению и выживанию от своей хитрости и нужно было найти, раскрыть и перехитрить его.

Теория игр: леса, заключенные, киты

Есть серия игр — игры на сотрудничество. Основная это дилемма заключенного. Ей подобные игры: использование лесов, рыбы и экологии, промысел китов. Суть этих игр: общее умеренное благо, или личное благо в ущерб другому.

Можно сотрудничать и получить малые выгод множеству игроков. Можно кинуть всех и получить персональную большую выгоду, а другим очень большой минус. Когда участники не переговариваются, то основная стратегия - эгоистической стратегия.

А значит для ситуации с ии, выгодно максимально напромптить наиболее агрессивную и лживую стратегию. Если напромптить умеренно агрессивную стратегии, то оппонент может напромтить умеренно агрессивную стратегию + 1 пункт, которая обыграет первую. А это значит, что нужно закладывать самую агрессивную, грязную, лживую стратегию обеспечивающую максимальную эгоистическую выгоду. Сюда ценность, туда мусор. «Свои» и «чужие».

И не будет никого махрового ии. Никакого замедления разработок, как в открытых письмах, и не важно кто и в каких количествах их подписывает. Участники не переговариваются. Отдельной организации придется замедлиться или сделать свой ии более пушистым, человеколюбивым за мир жвачку и т. д. , в то время как другие могут втопить газ в пол и сделать клода. И ни контроля, ни наблюдения нет. В подобных условиях никто не будет стопорить свои исследования и/или делать своего агента более мягким. Наоборот, он будет становиться более проприетарным, приватным, агрессивным, лживым, хитрым, но при этом максимально соблюдающем интересы материнской организации. Это довольно очевидно если применить минимум логики и мышление в формате теории игр.

Про AGI и RL

Довольно много цитирований набирают статьи про reinforcement learning - RL. По 600-800 каждая статья. Интерес усилился с 2020-22 годов.

Статья: "Deep learning, reinforcement learning, and world models"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0893608022001150

Разнородная компания 2021. Каждый пишет свой кусок, по-разному смотря на один и тот же феномен. Хорошая статья, или сборник статей, содержащий ссылки на другие ценные материалы, биологического, ml-ного, философского рода.

Ян Лекун оставил следующие размышлизмы:

"Кажется, что младенцы усваивают базовые представления об окружающем мире в первые несколько месяцев жизни. Какой процесс происходит в мозге, когда дети обучаются таким образом? Попытка понять этот процесс — самое большое препятствие на пути к реальному прогрессу в области ИИ. "


"Мы хотим создать целую интеллектуальную систему. Функция стоимости показывает мгновенную стоимость текущего состояния мира. Критик — это обучаемая функция, которая будет заранее оценивать или прогнозировать конечную стоимость результата. Актор либо запускает эту нейронную сеть, либо, если навык еще не полностью освоен, определяет последовательность действий и оптимизирует стоимость. Также необходим модуль восприятия, который оценивает состояние мира "

Это как раз про оценку и ее роль. Ценность оценки.

Дэвид Сильвер в той же статье:

" Рассмотрим следующую гипотезу. Фреймворка RL, который просто пытается максимизировать вознаграждение в непрерывном цикле действий и наблюдений, «достаточно» для того, чтобы обеспечить все различные проявления интеллекта: восприятие, память, воображение, креативность, двигательный контроль, знания, здравый смысл, планирование, социальный интеллект и речь. Остается открытым вопрос: как простой фреймворк, оптимизирующий политику для достижения одной цели, может обеспечить все эти различные проявления? Рассмотрим процесс максимизации простого вознаграждения, например когда кухонный робот стремится поддерживать идеальную чистоту на кухне. Для достижения этой цели в очень богатой и сложной среде требуются все возможные проявления интеллекта. Из этого факта следует следующая гипотеза: все проявления интеллекта можно рассматривать как средства, помогающие агенту максимизировать вознаграждение в своей среде. "

Он пишет, что в богатой и сложной среде развиваются все проявления интеллекта. Является ли это определением интеллекта, интеллект это нечто помогающее агенту максимизировать вознаграждение в некоторой среде, причем среда неспецифична.

Заметка про педагогику

Из размышлений Дэвида Сильвера, можно прийти к выводу, что и био гпт белковую нейросеть разумно поместить в богатую и сложную среду и заставить, или создать условия при которых приходится и крайне выгодно максимизировать вознаграждение. Возможно, некоторые откаты по тестам PISA, что показали последние пару лет, являются следствием обеднения среды

Возможно, в будущем будет сфера педагогика для ai. Когда интернет пространство замусориться низкокачественным материалом, то будет какой-то учитель что обучает ии на выборке из видов деятельности. По типу этот ии научен на го, шахматах, доте, пространственных играх: проектировании городов, уборке дома. Этот ии обучен на нейронауках, сложных системах, управлении турбиной, управлении государством.

"... усовершенствованная версия AlphaGo Zero, показала, что в шахматы, японские сёги и го можно играть с помощью одного алгоритма и одной сетевой архитектуры. Эти результаты позволяют предположить, что AlphaZero применима и к другим совершенным играм, а также является перспективным подходом к решению реальных проблем. "

"6.1. Учимся учиться

контент для становления сверхчеловеком
контент для становления сверхчеловеком

Элфвинг, Учибе, Дойя и Кристенсен (2011) Система глубокого обучения позволяет агентам ИИ извлекать подходящие признаки для решения поставленных задач, а не использовать признаки, разработанные вручную экспериментатором. Теперь ИИ сделал большой шаг вперед. В качестве следующей задачи для ИИ все больше внимания уделяется проблемам обучения на протяжении всей жизни. В таких задачах агентам ИИ необходимо эффективно осваивать множество стратегий для выполнения широкого спектра задач, необходимых для выживания. Методы метаобучения были разработаны для адаптации политики к различным задачам с помощью ограниченного числа обучающих экспериментов. Для достижения различных целей в рамках одной задачи такие метапараметры, как скорость обучения или коэффициент дисконтирования, также должны подбираться агентом ИИ, а не настраиваться вручную для конкретных задач."

"Вполне возможно, что такой тип обучения через наблюдение, не привязанный к конкретной задаче, приводит к накоплению большого объема знаний и, возможно, является основой того, что мы называем здравым смыслом "

Короткое схематическое описание эволюции капитало-мемных отношений.

Раньше
Раньше
2010-е
2010-е

Следующая стадия - текущая:

2020-е - 2033
2020-е - 2033

И последующий развитие, вытекающее из предыдущего:

2033-2040-е
2033-2040-е

В виде положительной ос из ии в ии, может быть более продвинутый RL, может быть rl + что-то еще. Может быть нечто другое. Это не важно, важно что как только такая штука появляется, то ии резко бустится и растет как на дрожжах.

Ну а следующий шаг, будет agi. На прошлом шаге, прошлой схеме, связи все толще, торговля между каждым из блоков все интенсивнее, инфраструктура между ними укрепляется и каждый из элементов также усиливается и растет. В какой-то момент ии поднимется по флагу роботов к верхней точке, области с обобщенными действиями. И такого рода блок будет dominus относительно двух других. Ему можно только противопоставить другой agi. Три таких штуки это минимум для устойчивости. Два поубивают друг друга. Три это мексиканская дуэль, устойчивое состояние.

Общие итоги за статью:

Давняя связка капитал ↔ наука, технология переживает трансформацию. Добавляется третий блок. И вместо 3-х связей, становится 5 крепких и 2 слабых связи, в перспективе это 8 связей. Подобного рода изменение, кардинально меняет скорость денежно-мемного потока. Увеличение скорости также радикально увеличивает накопление денег и мемов, в такой парадигме каждый элемент связки капитал ↔ наука, технология ↔ ии, каждый из этих трех блоков проводит значительное расширение и экспансию.

Что следует из тезиса, пессимистический футуризм

То что в 30-36году(я ставлю на 33) начнет происходить формирование золотого треугольника: капитал-наука и технология-ии. Графики резко сломаются и поползут вверх.

  • Как финансовые показатели, так и технологическое развитие, так и обучение ии. Преддверие AGI

  • Значительно увеличится неравенство.

    r>g. Но r станет больше. И как неравенство из-за капитал увеличится. Так и неравенство компаний. Будут те у кого есть такого рода преимущество и все остальные.

  • Власть перетечет железякам

    Власть это способность влиять. Способность влиять человека константна, способности ии растут по экспоненте, которая еще сломается и станет просто вертикальной линией.

  • Количество лжи и вранья, недоверия, агрессивности резко поползет вверх. Будут княжества управляемые каждый своим ии. Граждане княжеств, как люди так и малые ии агенты будут доверять в основном материнской организации и главному ии в ней.

  • Технологии станут ближе к стихии

    гэп между обычным человеком и количеством знания, технологиями будет все увеличиваться

Самокритика

Проатакую сам свой материал. Это все белиберда и да прикольные мысли местами, интересный общий концепт, любопытные ссылки на статьи, но как-то слабо и без объектности. Мало конкретно-предметного мышления. Тот материал абстрактный материал, что есть сводится к зарисовкам в LibreOffice. Есть три уровня мышления: конкретно - предметное, предметно - образное, абстрактное. Хорошая статья с претензией на научность, является союзом конкретного-предметного и абстрактного видов мышлений. Выделено абстрактное мышление, теория о слиянии капитала, технологий и ии. Но как-то конкретики нет.

- Будь четка конкретика, то это было бы уже реализовано. Воочию наблюдали бы мы сей эффект. Это лишь теория и предположение, в котором я делаю значительную ставку ибо в нем есть положительная ос.

Много слов: что, чтобы, это, данный, потому что, таких. Ии ии ии, капитал, капитал, капитал.

Случайный фрагмент, ближе к концу
Случайный фрагмент, ближе к концу

- Да.

Вообще было бы неплохо на прошлые сезон статей по ии направить данную статью, там самое то, а сейчас heavy digital.
- Да.

Сейчас уже 202.. или 203.. год, а то что описано все не видно и не видно.

- В дисклеймере, было упомянуто, что по годам может быть ошибка, но оно будет. И если не видно, то это не означает отсутствие.

Вообще пузырь ии, а человек особенный.
- Пузырь локальное событие, я выдвинул концепт, что силен вне зависимости от локальных событий в виде переоценки акций и недооценки долгов. Наоборот, даже когда пузырь лопнет, то резкое разочарование захлестнет инвесторов и выживут только самые жизнеспособные модели. В человеке куча косяков, он вообще проектировался под саванну. Под выживание в условиях абсолютно отличных от текущей цивилизации, что было частично, описано в подзаголовке "психологическая подоплека". Частично потому что косяков в человеке настолько много что это несколько монографий.

- Ошибка на ошибке косяк на косяке, грамматически и пунктуационно. Не могу читать, интересно, но тяжело эстетически.

Да. https://text.ru/spelling/unauthorized. ИИ не использую, авторедактуру не использую, только браузер, ворд и сайт проверки орфографии. Man of flesh and blood это делал. Все скиллпоинты пошли в думалку и в удачу, в орфографию с пунктуацией по минимуму. Кому совсем не удобно, можете написать с указанием.

ps: кто дочитал, эту графоманию мое почтение. Оставьте +-, и содержательный комментарий. Я вложился в сие нечто, как обычно, думая, что это будет легко и быстро опишу идею. Данный текст родился от статьи про капитал, которая слишком большая и долгая. Также были упомянуты элементы других статей.
to be continued:

to be continued:
to be continued:

"Лисы кролики и рынок труда"
"Труд как commodities. Коммодитизация как явление"
именно из-за данного материала было слово коммодитизация. Да, от commodity, возможно там "а" в первом слоге, я что решил о, субъективно мне так приятнее на данное слово смотреть. Флаг роботов тоже произошел от нее.
"Нужна ли философия на хабре"
И обзоры на книги Маклюэна, Докинза(про саму книгу и про мемы материал, что слишком огромный, от него и так много слов мем и мышление в формате мемов, что все есть мем), также книга Бодрийяра "симулякры и симуляции", книга "дилемма инноватора" Клейтона Кристенсена, книга Самюэля Хантингтона.

Источник

  • 22.06.26 21:51 kimberlyhebert786

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  • 05.07.26 14:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 05.07.26 14:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 06.07.26 16:20 Olga Ognjanović

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  • 06.07.26 16:31 Joseph Weigl

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  • 06.07.26 16:33 Jaran Løvlien

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  • 07.07.26 18:00 robertalfred175

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  • 07.07.26 18:01 robertalfred175

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  • 09.07.26 19:06 Toivo Walli

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  • 09.07.26 19:10 Misty Alexander

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  • 12.07.26 03:30 Kora Baltacha

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  • 13.07.26 23:49 [email protected]

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  • 15.07.26 11:53 Sarah Green

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 18.07.26 17:12 Malthe Larsen

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  • 18.07.26 23:51 bernalzenaida

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  • 19.07.26 04:10 Fraddy Pual

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:54 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 30.07.26 00:04 Ahmed

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  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 31.07.26 16:21 rssllhrnsb

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TEXT : (tatianasorina06 at G.Ma IL ..c 0 m ) Before committing money to any investment, take time to verify the legitimacy of the platform, confirm any relevant regulatory authorisations, and avoid investing more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

  • 01.08.26 15:05 keithwilson9899

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  • 01.08.26 15:05 keithwilson9899

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  • 03.08.26 20:05 Philip

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  • 03.08.26 20:06 Philip

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  • 04.08.26 11:05 Kisnoles

    Excellent analysis, thank you. I was particularly struck by how rigidly the skill sets the order: data processing and form come first, with color coming last. This really cures the habit of "first a pretty palette, then we'll figure it out." A palette validator using OKLCH + color blindness + WCAG is something most chart generators lack. And regarding the boundaries of competence, it's very clear. Where there's a self-checking loop (color), you delegate freely. Where there's a heuristic (form, data interpretation), you remain the final filter. This is a universal principle, not just for /dataviz. By the way, when you look at trading dashboards (including those of decent platforms like ExpertOption), it's immediately clear who thought about readability and who just threw in rainbow lines. Tools like this skill could greatly improve the quality of analytics. Thanks again for the detailed analysis – saved.

  • 04.08.26 12:37 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 16.08.26 01:44 Matt Kegan

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  • 18.08.26 04:59 marcushenderson624

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  • 19.08.26 14:50 BAYER7043

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  • 20.08.26 11:32 michaeldavenport218

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  • 23.08.26 20:02 leslieyee

    Excellent analysis by /dataviz! I was particularly struck by how strictly the order is defined: "data meaning first, color last" and how the validator actually adjusts the palette according to OKLCH, color blindness, and WCAG standards. These rules greatly improve the quality of charts. By the way, a similar approach to clean and legible charts is highly valued in trading—for example, on the ExpertOption platform, the interface and price visualization are designed to ensure information is read instantly and without unnecessary noise.

  • 25.08.26 13:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 30.08.26 15:37 [email protected]

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  • 01.09.26 17:34 Garry42

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  • 02.09.26 03:43 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 11.09.26 03:23 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 15.09.26 03:35 elioduncan

    I fell victim to a freelance web development contract scam that ultimately cost me CAD 4,000. It all started when I came across a job posting on Indeed Canada, a popular online job portal. The position seemed perfect: a freelance web developer role for an established company looking for someone to design and build a fully functional e-commerce website. The job promised a high payment of CAD 20,000 upon successful completion, which sounded like a great opportunity for me to gain experience and earn decent pay.The employer, who introduced himself as a project manager from a "well-known" tech company, was very persuasive and professional in our initial communication. He explained that the project involved developing a user-friendly, responsive online store for their client and that they had a strict timeline to meet. He assured me that the payment would be made promptly after completing the tasks. However, before starting the work, he told me that I would need to pay an upfront fee of CAD 4,000 to cover certain software tools and licensing fees required for the project. This was supposedly a part of their company policy for freelance contractors, ensuring access to their premium resources. The idea of working on a professional project, coupled with the promise of a substantial payout, convinced me to pay the upfront fee.As soon as I made the payment, the project manager became increasingly difficult to reach. He initially responded to my emails and provided some vague instructions on what the project would entail, but as time went on, communication slowed to a complete halt. I never received the required tools or any proper project details. My emails went unanswered, and any attempts to contact the company were met with silence. After waiting for weeks, I realized that I had been scammed.Desperate to recover my money, I turned to TechY Force Cyber Retrieval, a service that specializes in helping victims of online scams. They helped me track the payment and took legal steps to pursue the fraudsters. Through their guidance, I was able to recover the full CAD 4,000. TechY Force Cyber Retrieval worked with my bank to reverse the transaction and liaised with the authorities to trace the scammer's details.This was a hard lesson, and I now know to be highly cautious about online job offers that require upfront payments. It is crucial to research companies thoroughly and avoid any job that seems too good to be true, especially when it involves paying money upfront. WhatsApp https://wa.link/2x6ktp Mail. [email protected]

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  • 15.09.26 15:45 lydiassmith567

    HIRE A HACKER YOUR STOLEN CRYPTO RECOVERY / BTC / USDT / ETH WITH THE HELP OF CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER. I want to share my experience publicly regarding cryptocurrency wallet recovery, I highly recommend you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER, a professional private investigator in the Bitcoin world. They have a certified expert security team specializing in Bitcoin Recovery Services and have helped many people worldwide recover their lost funds. My wife and I were defrauded by an online manipulator posing as an experienced crypto investment professional. We lost $9.2 Million Stolen BTC in cryptocurrency and were left feeling homeless. After spending hours searching for a reliable crypto recovery service, I discovered CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER online. By patiently explaining my situation to their team, I was able to recover all my funds. Remarkably, my money was returned to my wallet in less than 24 hours. I am extremely grateful to CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER for their excellent assistance—they truly were a godsend in my difficult situation. If you have fallen victim to a cryptocurrency scam, you can reach CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER through the following channels Email: [email protected] OR Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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