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Cryptocurrencies: 9444 / Markets: 115067
Market Cap: $ 3 678 112 645 449 / 24h Vol: $ 180 388 398 889 / BTC Dominance: 59.220245489256%

Н Новости

Сговор китов, ADL, «конец бычки» — что же произошло на рынке в «черную субботу»?

Каждый обвал на крипторынке неизбежно вызывает волну догадок и комментариев «просветленных» экспертов. Одни ищут следы «координированных атак» и тайных манипуляторов, другие винят ботов, ликвидность или мнимые утечки инсайдерской информации.

На деле рынок чаще рушится сам — под тяжестью плечей, ликвидаций и хрупкого доверия. Он ведет себя как единый живой организм.

Октябрьское резкое снижение не стало исключением. После стремительного роста рынок оказался перегрет, а цепочка ликвидаций быстро превратилась в лавину.

В этой статье разбираем, как сработал механизм автоделевериджинга, почему его стоит воспринимать всерьез и что говорят аналитики о перспективах возобновления ралли.

Начало октября вполне соответствовало так называемому «Uptober-нарративу»: цена биткоина размеренно шагала к новым максимумам, зафиксировав рекорд выше $125 000.

Эксперты индустрии в унисон твердили об остром дефиците монет на биржах, «здоровой динамике» и прочих предпосылках для роста первой криптовалюты до $200 000.

Коррекция была внезапной. В ночь с 10 на 11 октября биткоин упал ниже $111 000, впервые зафиксировав дневную свечу на $20 000 — на крупнейшей криптобирже Binance цена в моменте опускалась до $102 000.

Объем ликвидаций на крипторынке превысил $19 млрд, став крупнейшим за всю историю. За сутки общая капитализация цифровых активов снизилась почти на $660 млрд.

Ethereum опускался ниже $3500, а не столь популярные альткоины столкнулись с еще более сильным давлением — многие «похудели» на десятки процентов.

После рекордного для индустрии объема ликвидаций индикатор рыночных настроений опускался до отметки 22, указывая на «экстремальный страх» среди участников рынка. Ранее подобные значения фиксировались в апреле, когда цена первой криптовалюты падала ниже $80 000.

Примечательно, что даже после восстановления котировок выше $110 000 значения метрики не дотягивают до 30, указывая на «страх».

На фоне ухудшения рыночных настроений стабильные притоки капитала в биткоин-ETF сменились оттоками.

Многие эксперты связали панику с постом президента США Дональда Трампа в социальной сети Truth Social. В публикации от 10 октября он заявил о возможном введении с 1 ноября 100% пошлин на китайский импорт.

Первыми отреагировали фондовые рынки: индексы Nasdaq и S&P 500 снизились на 3,5% и 2,7% соответственно. Затем негативные настроения перекинулись на криптовалюты.

11 октября в Оболонском районе Киева полиция обнаружила тело 32-летнего мужчины с огнестрельным ранением головы в салоне его автомобиля.

Позднее выяснилось, что погибший — известный криптоблогер, трейдер и CEO Cryptology Костя Кудо (настоящее имя — Константин Ганич). Основная версия произошедшего — самоубийство на фоне обвала крипторынка.

Тело нашли в его автомобиле — Lamborghini Urus. Рядом лежало оружие, зарегистрированное на блогера.

«Накануне смерти мужчина сообщал близким о подавленном состоянии из-за финансовых трудностей и отправил им прощальное сообщение», — говорится в заявлении полиции.

В своем последнем посте в Instagram от 27 сентября Кудо написал о мнимом благополучии коллег, подчеркнув, что на деле многие из них сталкиваются с серьезными финансовыми трудностями из-за долгов и «стремления соответствовать красивой картинке».

Наиболее вероятная неофициальная версия произошедшего — значительные убытки от трейдинга. Накануне трагедии блогер заявлял, что мог «слить» до $1,3 млн, однако надеялся вернуть средства инвесторам. Судя по всему, реальные потери оказались гораздо выше.

По данным анонимных источников УНИАН, блогер мог утратить все доверенные ему инвесторские средства — около $7 млн, а также собственный капитал. Другие источники оценивают объем потерь до $30 млн.

Самоубийства на фоне падения котировок — далеко не новое явление.

В феврале 23-летний Арнольд Роберт Гарро покончил с собой в прямом эфире на платформе X, призвав «сделать из своей смерти мем-коин». Некоторые предполагали, что его поступок связан с финансовыми потерями, однако семья подчеркнула: он страдал от тяжелой депрессии.

В июле 2023 года нашли тело аргентинского бизнесмена и криптомиллионера Фернандо Переса Альгабы. Он был известен любовью к роскоши и часто делился снимками дорогих автомобилей и беззаботной жизни в Instagram.

Смерть Альгабы связывают с конфликтом с местной преступной группировкой в контексте финансов. В телефоне бизнесмена нашли заметку, где он указал, что потерял большую часть своих криптоактивов.

В результате обвала ликвидации затронули более 1,6 млн трейдеров, большинство из которых торговали на Binance и Hyperliquid. Некоторые участники рынка предположили, что массовые закрытия позиций на крупнейшей CEX были «скоординированной атакой», вызвавшей резкое падение котировок.

Одним из первых на это указал журналист Колин Ву. По его словам, злоумышленники воспользовались уязвимостью в функции Unified Account, позволяющей брать стейблкоин USDe в качестве залога.

В отличие от других платформ, Binance определяла стоимость таких активов не по данным оракулов, а по собственному стакану ордеров. Биржа об этом знала — соответствующее исправление было запланировано на 14 октября.

Атакующие воспользовались возможностью, выбросив на рынок USDe на $90 млн. Цена «стабильной монеты» временно отвязалась от доллара США, что спровоцировало ликвидации на $1 млрд. Под удар также попали bnSOL и wBETH.

Binance признала, что часть ликвидаций была связана с временной утратой привязки котировок USDe, bnSOL и wBETH. Компания пообещала возместить убытки, а уже 13 октября сообщила о выплатах на сумму $283 млн.

Представители платформы опровергли связь между депегом и обвалом рынка. Эксперты также не согласны с версиями о скоординированной атаке.

Ву привел наблюдения аналитика Цзяня Чжуэра, который подчеркнул, что утрата привязки USDe к доллару произошла уже после падения цен. Первопричиной он назвал низкую ликвидность wBETH.

Сооснователь Blum Глеб Костарев отметил, что многих розничных трейдеров шокировали ликвидации: у них «были плюсовые шорты, совсем немного лонгов, а на балансе осталось 0».

По его словам, в происходящем нет скама или мошенничества — это стандартная механика деривативных площадок.

Эксперт подчеркнул, что биржа не берет на себя риски контрагентов и выступает лишь посредником между лонгами и шортами. Платформа контролирует маржу и ликвидирует позиции при необходимости. В случае резкого падения рынка проигравшая сторона может не успеть закрыться — ликвидности в стакане не хватает, позиции уходят в минус.

Например, трейдер должен $100 000 при залоге $50 000 — это покрывает долг лишь частично. Оставшийся дефицит компенсируется за счет механизма автоделевериджинга: биржа частично списывает прибыль с оказавшихся «в плюсе», чтобы закрыть образовавшуюся «дыру».

Костарев пояснил, что при срабатывании ADL система сортирует прибыльных трейдеров по уровню нереализованного PnL и плеча, а затем принудительно закрывает их позиции. Это крайняя мера — включается, когда страховой фонд исчерпан или на рынке возникают экстремальные ситуации.

«Такова суровая правда жизни», — подытожил он, добавив, что трейдерам стоит внимательно читать правила использования биржи перед торговлей.

Сооснователь Coin Bureau Ник Пукрин также отметил, что пострадали не только «лонгисты». Он добавил, что ADL «выносит» и прибыльные позиции.

The worst thing about the crash is that it wasn't only longs who got screwed — shorts did too.

Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) on the exchanges meant that traders in profit also got their positions taken out.

ADL is a required risk management mechanism but its use is incredibly rare.…

«Представь, что сначала у тебя закрывают шорт, а потом ликвидируют лонг.Полный разгром», — привел пример эксперт.

Однако Пукрин подчеркнул, что механизм используется «чрезвычайно редко».

Рассмотрим реализацию механизма на примере Binance. Пост в ее блоге начинается с тезиса, что автоделевереджинг применяется только в крайнем случае — когда страховой фонд фьючерсов не способен покрыть позиции обанкротившегося клиента.

«Binance делает все возможное, чтобы избежать ADL, и предлагает несколько функций вроде лимит-ордера “Исполнить немедленно или отменить”», — отметили представители крупнейшей криптобиржи.

Эксперты предупредили, что из-за волатильности криптовалютного рынка и доступного пользователям высокого кредитного плеча «полностью избежать ADL невозможно».

В Binance пояснили, что прибыльные фьючерсные позиции трейдеров могут быть ликвидированы через описанный механизм в зависимости от рейтинга приоритета ликвидации.

В интерфейсе для каждой позиции предусмотрен индикатор, показывающий вероятность срабатывания ADL. Если они приближается к неминуемой ликвидации, это будет «явно отражено в интерфейсе».

Позиция в очереди «на вынос» определяется по формуле, которая учитывает прибыль и размер кредитного плеча. Сделки с высокой доходностью и большим левериджем ликвидируются первыми, опережая менее успешные.

Если прибыльная фьючерсная позиция принудительно закрывается через ADL, трейдер сразу получает уведомление с указанием суммы и цены ликвидации. Операция происходит исходя из цены банкротства ликвидируемого ордера. Комиссия при этом не взимается.

Таким образом, цена банкротства — «лимитник», по которому фактически исполняется ордер ликвидации. На этом уровне убытки трейдера полностью равны его залогу или начальной марже. Иными словами, это момент, когда маржинальный баланс пользователя опускается до нуля.

«Все открытые ордера будут отменены: либо для всех токенов (в режиме кросс-маржи), либо для конкретного токена (в режиме изолированной маржи)», — пояснили специалисты Binance.

Подобные механизмы есть и на многих других биржах с поддержкой бессрочных контрактов, включая Hyperliquid.

Полностью «отключить» ADL нельзя, но можно снизить риск его срабатывания:

Ончейн-аналитик Джеймс Чек убежден: резкая коррекция крипторынка не связана с манипуляциями или «бумажным биткоином». Причина — «старые добрые продавцы».

The sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin holders is **still** not widely appreciated, but it has been THE source of resistance.

Not manipulation, not paper Bitcoin, not suppression.

Just good old fashioned sellers.

Also, it won't become irrelevant. https://t.co/4QnfCn2f7w pic.twitter.com/YiK7gtjkzj

Он подчеркнул, что участники все еще недооценивают масштаб давления со стороны существующих держателей цифрового золота, которое сейчас выступает основным фактором сопротивления.

В подтверждение своих слов аналитик привел график, который иллюстрирует рост среднего возраста потраченных монет. Это значит, что продажи совершают преимущественно ходлеры.

Согласно другому графику, реализованная прибыль достигла $1,7 млрд в день, а убытки выросли до $430 млн — третий по величине показатель за текущий цикл. Одновременно объем «возрожденного предложения» от старых монет увеличился до $2,9 млрд за сутки.

Инвестор Уилл Клементе считает, что «относительная слабость биткоина за последний год в основном представляла собой передачу предложения от „старичков” к TradFi».

С этой оценкой согласился и CEO Galaxy Digital Майк Новограц.

«Многие в мире биткоина, кто держал его очень долго, наконец решили: “Я хочу что-то купить”», — сказал он.

Новограц подтвердил, что единственное предложение, которое видит его фирма, исходит от «старичков» и майнеров.

Многие аналитики сохраняют оптимизм. Так, директор по инвестициям Bitwise Мэтт Хоуган убежден, что недавний обвал не повлияет на долгосрочный бычий тренд.

По его словам, падение было спровоцировано каскадными ликвидациями, а не фундаментальными проблемами.

Хоуган считает, что событие не имело серьезных последствий. Он выделил три ключевых фактора для оценки ситуации:

По мнению Хоугана, фундаментальные драйверы роста — регулирование, приток институционального капитала и внедрение технологии — остаются в силе. Он ожидает, что после короткого периода волатильности бычий рынок продолжится.

Ветеран трейдинга Питер Брандт заявил, что цена биткоина превысит $125 000 после еще одной крупной коррекции.

По его словам, возможны два сценария. Первый — «огромная встряска», за которой последует быстрое достижение ATH.

«Или же [второй сценарий] — нарушение параболы, которое в прошлом каждый раз приводило к обвалу цены на 75%. Я думаю, эпоха коррекций на 80% позади, но, возможно, [цена вернется] к $50 000–60 000», — заявил Брандт.

Экс-CEO BitMEX Артур Хэйес заявил, что на крипторынке появилась возможность для покупки. Он сослался на слова главы ФРС Джерома Пауэлла о завершении программы количественного ужесточения.

There you have it, QT is over. Back up the fucking truck and buy everything. pic.twitter.com/kQbpBSOlOU

Аналитики XWIN Research пришли к выводу, что биткоин перешел в «спекулятивную фазу» с перехватом контроля крупными игроками.

Индикатор NUPL достиг отметки +0,52. Исторически эта зона означает переход от оптимизма к эйфории. В предыдущих циклах 2017 и 2021 годов значения метрики выше 0,5 сигнализировали о спекулятивной активности.

На момент написания в прибыли около 97% рыночного предложения монет.

Одновременно доля краткосрочных держателей (STH) в реализованной капитализации биткоина превысила рубеж в 40%. Это означает, что долгосрочные инвесторы (LTH) фиксируют прибыль, а их место занимают менее опытные участники рынка — «новые киты».

В прошлых циклах доминирование STH совпадало с финальной фазой роста. Однако сейчас структура отличается, отметили эксперты. Давление продаж поглощают три фактора: притоки капитала в спотовые ETF, растущая ликвидность стейблкоинов и участие институционалов.

Ончейн-данные указывают на «зрелую спекулятивную фазу», которую подпитывают ликвидность и постоянный приток капитала. Аналитики считают, что следующим важным сигналом станет снижение доли краткосрочных держателей — это будет означать переход к новой фазе накопления, ведомой долгосрочными инвесторами.

Создатель популярной модели S2F и аналитик PlanB уверен, что коррекция биткоина ниже $108 000 не означает окончание бычьего рынка — фундаментальные показатели указывают на продолжение роста.

«Медведи полагают, что пик в $126 000 уже пройден, биткоин упадет ниже $100 000, а 2026 год станет медвежьим рынком. […] На мой взгляд, это серьезное заблуждение», — написал он.

В отчете Navigating Uncertainty от Coinbase Institutional указано, что 67% институциональных инвесторов позитивно оценивают перспективы биткоина на ближайшие три-шесть месяцев.

Исследователь Дэвид Дуонг отметил влияние компаний, управляющих цифровыми активами. По его словам, они активно «подбирали» монеты на просадке рынка. Например, фирма BitMine воспользовалась падением рынка и докупила Ethereum на $417 млн.

Дуонг считает, что у бычьей фазы «есть пространство для роста». Среди позитивных факторов он назвал устойчивую ликвидность, сильный макроэкономический фон и поддерживающую политику регуляторов.

Аналитики Coinbase также указали на макроэкономические факторы. Ожидаемое снижение ставок ФРС и возможные меры стимулирования в Китае могут привлечь на рынок новых инвесторов.

Ликвидации могли стать спусковым механизмом обвала 10–11 октября. Когда ордера начинают исполняться ниже уровня покрытия убытков на фоне «тающего» страхового фонда, систему удерживает ADL. Механизм уменьшает прибыльные позиции с обеих сторон, сохраняя баланс рынка.

По этой причине крупные распродажи нередко продолжаются даже после первой волны ликвидаций. Для трейдеров бессрочных контрактов автоделевериджинг — как система пожарной безопасности: срабатывает редко, но в критические моменты решает многое.

Эксперты рекомендуют держать плечо умеренным, следить за индикатором ADL, избегать «перегруженных» позиций. Также следует всегда оценивать глубину рынка в связке с другими графиками и данными.

По мнению аналитиков, в ближайшем будущем «перезапуск» ралли под вопросом: доверие инвесторов подорвано, а ликвидность частично перетекла из розничного сегмента в ETF. Но по-прежнему в силе долгосрочные факторы роста: институциональные притоки, устойчивые позиции майнеров и макроэкономические стимулы.

Октябрьский обвал стал не разворотом цикла, а «точкой сброса перегрева». После фазы консолидации и снижения кредитного плеча рынок способен восстановиться — особенно если многие вернутся к более консервативной торговле и планомерному накоплению активов.

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  • 17.10.25 20:17 tyleradams

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  • 21.10.25 08:39 debby131

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  • 22.10.25 04:48 MATT PHILLIP

    I never imagined I’d fall for a crypto romance scam but it happened. Over the course of a few months, I sent nearly $150,000 worth of Bitcoin to someone I genuinely believed I was building a future with. When they disappeared without a trace, I was left heartbroken, humiliated, and financially devastated. For a long time, I didn’t tell anyone. I felt ashamed. But eventually, while searching for answers, I came across a Reddit thread that mentioned Agent Jasmine Lopez. I reached out, not expecting much. To my surprise, she treated me with kindness, not judgment. She used advanced tools like blockchain forensics, IP tracing, and smart contract analysis and with persistence and legal support, she was able to recover nearly 85% of what I lost. I know not everyone gets that kind of outcome, but thanks to [email protected] WhatsApp at +44 736-644-5035, I’ve started to reclaim not just my assets, but my confidence and peace of mind. If you’re going through something similar, you’re not alone and there is hope.

  • 22.10.25 07:36 donnacollier

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  • 22.10.25 11:59 elizabethrush89

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  • 22.10.25 11:59 elizabethrush89

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  • 22.10.25 16:31 MATT PHILLIP

    I never imagined I’d fall for a crypto romance scam but it happened. Over the course of a few months, I sent nearly $150,000 worth of Bitcoin to someone I genuinely believed I was building a future with. When they disappeared without a trace, I was left heartbroken, humiliated, and financially devastated. For a long time, I didn’t tell anyone. I felt ashamed. But eventually, while searching for answers, I came across a Reddit thread that mentioned Agent Jasmine Lopez. I reached out, not expecting much. To my surprise, she treated me with kindness, not judgment. She used advanced tools like blockchain forensics, IP tracing, and smart contract analysis and with persistence and legal support, she was able to recover nearly 85% of what I lost. I know not everyone gets that kind of outcome, but thanks to [email protected] WhatsApp at +44 736-644-5035, I’ve started to reclaim not just my assets, but my confidence and peace of mind. If you’re going through something similar, you’re not alone and there is hope.

  • 01:52 marcushenderson624

    Bitcoin Recovery Testimonial After falling victim to a cryptocurrency scam group, I lost $354,000 worth of USDT. I thought all hope was lost from the experience of losing my hard-earned money to scammers. I was devastated and believed there was no way to recover my funds. Fortunately, I started searching for help to recover my stolen funds and I came across a lot of testimonials online about Capital Crypto Recovery, an agent who helps in recovery of lost bitcoin funds, I contacted Capital Crypto Recover Service, and with their expertise, they successfully traced and recovered my stolen assets. Their team was professional, kept me updated throughout the process, and demonstrated a deep understanding of blockchain transactions and recovery protocols. They are trusted and very reliable with a 100% successful rate record Recovery bitcoin, I’m grateful for their help and highly recommend their services to anyone seeking assistance with lost crypto. Contact: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Email: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 01:52 marcushenderson624

    Bitcoin Recovery Testimonial After falling victim to a cryptocurrency scam group, I lost $354,000 worth of USDT. I thought all hope was lost from the experience of losing my hard-earned money to scammers. I was devastated and believed there was no way to recover my funds. Fortunately, I started searching for help to recover my stolen funds and I came across a lot of testimonials online about Capital Crypto Recovery, an agent who helps in recovery of lost bitcoin funds, I contacted Capital Crypto Recover Service, and with their expertise, they successfully traced and recovered my stolen assets. Their team was professional, kept me updated throughout the process, and demonstrated a deep understanding of blockchain transactions and recovery protocols. They are trusted and very reliable with a 100% successful rate record Recovery bitcoin, I’m grateful for their help and highly recommend their services to anyone seeking assistance with lost crypto. Contact: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Email: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15:47 MATT PHILLIP

    I never imagined I’d fall for a crypto romance scam but it happened. Over the course of a few months, I sent nearly $150,000 worth of Bitcoin to someone I genuinely believed I was building a future with. When they disappeared without a trace, I was left heartbroken, humiliated, and financially devastated. For a long time, I didn’t tell anyone. I felt ashamed. But eventually, while searching for answers, I came across a Reddit thread that mentioned Agent Jasmine Lopez. I reached out, not expecting much. To my surprise, she treated me with kindness, not judgment. She used advanced tools like blockchain forensics, IP tracing, and smart contract analysis and with persistence and legal support, she was able to recover nearly 85% of what I lost. I know not everyone gets that kind of outcome, but thanks to [email protected] WhatsApp at +44 736-644-5035, I’ve started to reclaim not just my assets, but my confidence and peace of mind. If you’re going through something similar, you’re not alone and there is hope.

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