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Рынки переоценены, риски рецессии реальны, а старые методы больше не работают. Экономист Лейси Хант о политике ФРС и перспективах США

По состоянию на 2025 год государственный долг США составил 124% от ВВП страны равного ~$30 трлн, преодолев отметку времен Второй мировой войны.

Исполнительный вице‑президент и главный экономист Hoisington Investment Management Лейси Хант поделился тревожной картиной будущего экономики США. В интервью WorthNet бывший сотрудник Федрезерва США жестко раскритиковал ФРС и указал на серьезные искажения данных по безработице. Эксперт предостерегает от инвестиций в гособлигации, призвав к срочному пересмотру фискальной и денежной политики.

В начале года Лейси Хант отметил проблему мировой долларовой ликвидности. По его словам, долгое время показатель рос стабильными темпами — порядка 10% годовых, но в нынешних условиях он на эту же долю сокращается.

Одна из главных претензий Ханта в июльском интервью — искажение данных по занятости и губительная политика ФРС. По его словам, официальные отчеты, на которых строятся ключевые показатели, сильно переоценивают реальное положение дел.

«Они опрашивают лишь 360 000 крупных компаний и экстраполируют данные на 12 млн бизнесов. При этом не учитывают погрешности малых фирм. В III–IV квартале ошибка составила до 5–6 сигм — это статистическая катастрофа», — отмечает он.

Хант недоумевает, почему Бюро трудовой статистики (BLS), имея данные переписи населения и занятости за пять месяцев, не может автоматически подгружать их в текущую модель расчета:

«Обе статистики собирает один и тот же орган — BLS. Почему их базы не синхронизируются в цифровую эпоху — я не понимаю».

Искажения в сложной цепочке статистических данных прямо влияет на политику ФРС и прозрачность экономики.

Эксперт жестко раскритиковал методы Федрезерва последних лет, особенно в части его молчаливого согласия с фискальной экспансией. По его словам, Центробанк допустил ряд стратегических ошибок, включая отмену нормы обязательных резервов — механизма, который долгие годы ограничивал избыточное наращивание ликвидности в банковской системе.

«ФРС, по сути, координировала действия с фискальными властями. Это один из факторов, которые искажают работу денежного рынка и ослабляют роль центрального банка как независимого арбитра», — констатирует Хант.

По его мнению, организация не просто запаздывает с реакцией на надвигающуюся дефляцию, а действует исходя из устаревших сценариев:

«ФРС как водитель, смотрящий в зеркало заднего вида, а не вперед».

Несмотря на снижение процентной ставки, кредитование остается дорогим, бизнесу оно обходится в 8%, пользователям кредитных карт — свыше 20%. Сокращение денежной массы в совокупности с жесткой монетарной политикой душат малый бизнес и потребителей. В результате повышается вероятность глубокой и затяжной рецессии.

Хант согласен с фактом снижения инфляции, но подчеркивает, что это не заслуга тонко настроенного механизма госоргана. Классически, такой спад должен сопровождаться падением ВВП, но этого не произошло. В этой корреляции экономист отметил вину искаженной статистики BLS.

По словам специалиста, тарифная политика президента США Дональда Трампа, особенно в отношении Китая, не привела к укреплению американской промышленности, а вызвала обратный эффект. Цепочка взаимных пошлин сокращает мировую торговлю, снижает доходы корпораций и ослабляет спрос на труд, капитал и природные ресурсы:

«Парадокс в том, что начальный всплеск инфляции от повышения цен быстро нивелируется спадающим спросом, а за ним приходит дефляционное давление».

Модель китайской экономики — жестко централизованная, с высокой долей государственного участия — подрывает основы свободного рынка, о которых писали Адам Смит и Давид Рикардо, считает Хант. КНР навязывает остальному миру свои правила игры, и США теряют промышленную независимость, стратегически важную в условиях макроэкономических и эпидемиологических вызовов.

По словам эксперта, в 1970 году доля государства в экономике составляла 25% от ВВП. Сейчас — 35%:

«Это постепенное вытеснение “невидимой руки” рынка. Мы не Китай и не Европа, но движемся в этом направлении».

Государство все чаще распределяет ресурсы напрямую, финансируя это долгом, что еще больше подрывает производительность и инвестиции.

Усугубляет ситуацию и демография: в Китае, Европе и даже в США наблюдается старение населения. Обычно это приводит к падению потребления, инновационной активности и экономического роста.

Один из самых тревожных сигналов, на который указывает Хант — стремительный рост государственного долга. Сегодня он составляет 124% от ВВП, превысив показатели периода Второй мировой войны. При том, что $12 трлн сейчас находится в руках иностранных инвесторов: $7,5 трлн в государственных облигациях, $4,5 трлн в корпоративных и около $2 трлн составляют ипотечные бумаги.

«Через 10 лет будет 135% — и это уже по официальным прогнозам CBO. Это исторически опасная траектория, сравнимая с тем, что происходило с Римом, Британией и Францией перед системным крахом», — предупреждает экономист.

Хант подкрепил свои суждения исследованием Кеннета Рогоффа и Кармен Рейнхарт, согласно которому устойчивый уровень долга выше 90% ВВП сокращает потенциальный рост на треть.

В случае США — это всего 1,2% реального роста на душу населения за последние 20 лет, вместо исторических 2,3%, что ведет к накоплению скрытого экономического ущерба.

«Если бы страна сохранила прежние темпы производства, средний доход на человека составлял бы сегодня $85 000 вместо $62 500. Потеря $12 000 на человека — прямое следствие фискальной политики», — подытожил ученый.

Лейси Хант спроецировал медленный, но системный сдвиг американской экономики к застою. Высокий долг, искаженная статистика, слабая реакция центробанка, деградирующая демография и рост госсектора — не отдельные проблемы, а взаимосвязанный механизм, ведущий к потере экономической динамики.

Инвесторам специалист советует быть осторожными: пока рынки переоценены доходность облигаций привлекает, но риски рецессии реальны.

Пока ФРС действует как «генералы, готовящиеся к предыдущей войне», главной угрозой, по мнению эксперта, является «нежелание системных игроков признать, что старые методы больше не работают».

Напомним, власти США поручили Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac изучить юзкейсы с криптовалютой.

В июне глава ФРС поддержал регулирование стейблкоинов в США.

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    Writing this review is a joy. Marie has provided excellent service ever since I started working with her in early 2018. I was worried I wouldn't be able to get my coins back after they were stolen by hackers. I had no idea where to begin, therefore it was a nightmare for me. However, things became easier for me after my friend sent me to [email protected] and +1 7127594675 on WhatsApp. I'm happy that she was able to retrieve my bitcoin so that I could resume trading.

  • 13.10.25 01:11 elizabethrush89

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  • 13.10.25 01:11 elizabethrush89

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  • 14.10.25 01:15 tyleradams

    Hi. Please be wise, do not make the same mistake I had made in the past, I was a victim of bitcoin scam, I saw a glamorous review showering praises and marketing an investment firm, I reached out to them on what their contracts are, and I invested $28,000, which I was promised to get my first 15% profit in weeks, when it’s time to get my profits, I got to know the company was bogus, they kept asking me to invest more and I ran out of patience then requested to have my money back, they refused to answer nor refund my funds, not until a friend of mine introduced me to the NVIDIA TECH HACKERS, so I reached out and after tabling my complaints, they were swift to action and within 36 hours I got back my funds with the due profit. I couldn’t contain the joy in me. I urge you guys to reach out to NVIDIA TECH HACKERS on their email: [email protected]

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 17.10.25 20:17 tyleradams

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  • 17.10.25 20:20 lindseyvonn

    Have you gotten yourself involved in a cryptocurrency scam or any scam at all? If yes, know that you are not alone, there are a lot of people in this same situation. I'm a Health Worker and was a victim of a cryptocurrency scam that cost me a lot of money. This happened a few weeks ago, there’s only one solution which is to talk to the right people, if you don’t do this you will end up being really depressed. I was really devastated until went on LinkedIn one evening after my work hours and i saw lots of reviews popped up on my feed about [email protected], I sent an email to the team who came highly recommended - [email protected] I started seeing some hope for myself from the moment I sent them an email. The good part is they made the entire process stress free for me, i literally sat and waited for them to finish and I received what I lost in my wallet

  • 17.10.25 20:22 richardcharles

    I would recommend NVIDIA TECH HACKERS to anyone that needs this service. I decided to get into crypto investment and I ended up getting my crypto lost to an investor late last year. The guy who was supposed to be managing my account turned out to be a scammer all along. I invested 56,000 USD and at first, my reading and profit margins were looking good. I started getting worried when I couldn’t make withdrawals and realized that I’ve been scammed. I came across some of the testimonials that people said about NVIDIA TECH HACKERS and how helpful he has been in recovering their funds. I immediately contacted him in his mail at [email protected] so I can get his assistance. One week into the recovery process the funds were traced and recovered back from the scammer. I can't appreciate him enough for his professionalism.

  • 17.10.25 20:23 stevekalfman

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  • 17.10.25 21:42 marcushenderson624

    Bitcoin Recovery Testimonial After falling victim to a cryptocurrency scam group, I lost $354,000 worth of USDT. I thought all hope was lost from the experience of losing my hard-earned money to scammers. I was devastated and believed there was no way to recover my funds. Fortunately, I started searching for help to recover my stolen funds and I came across a lot of testimonials online about Capital Crypto Recovery, an agent who helps in recovery of lost bitcoin funds, I contacted Capital Crypto Recover Service, and with their expertise, they successfully traced and recovered my stolen assets. Their team was professional, kept me updated throughout the process, and demonstrated a deep understanding of blockchain transactions and recovery protocols. They are trusted and very reliable with a 100% successful rate record Recovery bitcoin, I’m grateful for their help and highly recommend their services to anyone seeking assistance with lost crypto. Contact: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Email: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 17.10.25 21:42 marcushenderson624

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  • 17.10.25 21:42 marcushenderson624

    Bitcoin Recovery Testimonial After falling victim to a cryptocurrency scam group, I lost $354,000 worth of USDT. I thought all hope was lost from the experience of losing my hard-earned money to scammers. I was devastated and believed there was no way to recover my funds. Fortunately, I started searching for help to recover my stolen funds and I came across a lot of testimonials online about Capital Crypto Recovery, an agent who helps in recovery of lost bitcoin funds, I contacted Capital Crypto Recover Service, and with their expertise, they successfully traced and recovered my stolen assets. Their team was professional, kept me updated throughout the process, and demonstrated a deep understanding of blockchain transactions and recovery protocols. They are trusted and very reliable with a 100% successful rate record Recovery bitcoin, I’m grateful for their help and highly recommend their services to anyone seeking assistance with lost crypto. Contact: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Email: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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