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[Перевод] Во сколько обойдётся крах искусственного интеллекта

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В мае 17 % совокупного прироста всего мирового рынка акций пришлось лишь на две компании: Micron и SK Hynix — производителей микросхем памяти. Не 17 % прироста полупроводникового сектора, а 17 % вообще всего рынка, то есть всех публичных компаний во всех странах, вместе взятых. Такие данные приводит Acadian Asset Management. Под мировым рынком в отчёте компании понимается индекс MSCI All Country World Index, в который входят тысячи акций из десятков стран. При этом Micron и SK Hynix вместе весят в нём около 1 %. Иными словами, из каждого доллара, на который мировой рынок вырос в мае, примерно 17 центов принесли всего две эти акции.

Отсюда напрашивается неприятный вопрос: если весь мировой рынок акций способны тянуть вверх бумаги всего двух производителей чипов, о которых большинство людей даже не слышало (речь всё-таки не об Apple или Google), что будет с вашим портфелем, когда рынок развернётся вниз?

Поэтому сегодня мы разберёмся, насколько обычные инвесторы завязаны на ставку на искусственный интеллект, почему привычные тихие гавани могут не защитить, и сколько примерно денег исчезнет, если вся эта конструкция развалится.


Но сначала важная оговорка, поскольку значительную часть времени мы будем обсуждать, что случится, если всё пойдёт наперекосяк. Не все считают, что дело идёт к кризису. Напротив, очень многие серьёзные игроки полагают, что огромный бум ещё только начинается: ИИ действительно способен изменить экономику, а будущая отдача с лихвой оправдает все вливаемые в него деньги. И они вполне могут оказаться правы. Более того, приходится исходить из того, что большинство участников рынка верит именно в такой сценарий, потому что иначе их действия просто невозможно объяснить.

Именно поэтому инвесторы вкладываются даже при нынешних раздутых оценках, а главы технологических компаний уже закладывают сотни миллиардов долларов на дата-центры. На такие траты не идут без уверенности, что отдача будет огромной.

И давайте уточним: оптимисты — вовсе не маргинальное меньшинство. Их большинство, и именно благодаря их оптимизму вся эта система вообще существует.

Так что я не собираюсь утверждать, будто крах неизбежен. Никто не знает, случится он или нет; если же кто-то утверждает, что знает, то он просто гадает. Позже мы ещё вспомним несколько уверенных, но ошибочных прогнозов прошлого. Здесь мы пытаемся оценить масштаб неблагоприятного сценария. Если правы «быки», всё обойдётся, и потом мы ещё будем удивляться, из-за чего было столько шума. Но если правы «медведи», даже если пузырём окажется лишь часть происходящего, будет лучше заранее разобраться, о каких суммах может идти речь1. И лучше сделать это сейчас, пока вечеринка ещё продолжается.

Итак, диверсификация. Если в финансах и есть идея, которую все считают здравой, то это она. Инвесторы относятся к этому слову как к магическому заклинанию, способному защитить их от рыночных обвалов, инфляции и собственных неудачных решений. Смысл простой: распределяйте деньги между множеством разных активов. Затем если один актив рухнет, остальные должны смягчить удар и не дать просесть всему портфелю. Это редкий случай, когда в финансах можно почти даром снизить риск. И бо́льшую часть финансовой истории этот принцип действительно работал.

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Ещё пару лет назад тех, кто по долгу службы следит за рыночными рисками, больше всего беспокоила чрезмерная концентрация S&P 500. Крупнейшие технологические компании, прозванные «великолепной семёркой», набрали в индексе такой вес, что показатель S&P 500 уже не напоминал широкий срез американского рынка, на нём слишком явно торчали уши всё тех же семи техногигантов.

С тех пор проблема стала только шире. Теперь беспокоиться приходится уже не о семи отдельных акциях, а о целом секторе, который обожает расползаться по соседним отраслям.

Поначалу казалось, что взлёт популярности ИИ связан с несколькими технологическими гигантами, но постепенно на нём оказалось завязано чуть ли не всё. И я говорю не только о компаниях, для вида заявляющих, будто они пользуются искусственным интеллектом.

Самый очевидный пример — производители чипов. Но теперь на ИИ завязана и электроэнергетика: дата-центры потребляют огромное количество электричества. Поэтому даже акции компании, из-за которой в Огайо есть свет, отчасти превратились в ставку на искусственный интеллект. Или, точнее, её рыночная оценка уже зависит от веры в то, что дата-центры вскоре станут для неё крупными клиентами.

На ИИ теперь завязана и недвижимость: кому-то ведь должны принадлежать склады, набитые серверами. И строительство: по всем Соединённым Штатам массово возводят дата-центры. Весь этот бум искусственного интеллекта уже даёт работу электрикам, причём очень многим.

А ещё есть деньги, которые этот бум уже успел принести. Несколько недель назад SpaceX вышла на биржу и за одну ночь превратила около 4 400 своих сотрудников в миллионеров. В их числе — 400 человек, состояние каждого из которых теперь превышает $100 млн.

Те, кто продаёт состоятельным клиентам услуги и товары, мгновенно почувствовали приток новых денег. В Калифорнии и Техасе риелторы сообщили о всплеске интереса к покупке домов. Прибавилось клиентов и у компаний, организующих перелёты на частных самолётах: кому-то захотелось отметить IPO путешествием. А самой популярной покупкой после подобных событий, судя по всему, становятся дорогие часы. Один продавец объяснил, почему: сколько у вас денег на брокерском счёте, посторонним не видно, а часы — вот они, на запястье. Пожалуй, лучше и не опишешь желание похвастать перед незнакомцем, насколько хорошо у вас идут дела.

Суть в том, что это богатство не остаётся у сотрудников компаний искусственного интеллекта. Деньги растекаются по всей экономике: риелторам, продавцам часов, пилотам, дизайнерам интерьеров, тем, кто обустраивает винные погреба, и тем, кто потом снабжает их вином. Поэтому все они теперь тоже, пусть и косвенно, но заинтересованы в продолжении роста ИИ, хотя сами ситуацию так описали бы вряд ли. Даже ваша флористка, возможно, тоже поставила на Nvidia. Просто сама она такого не скажет.

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Первичное публичное размещение SpaceX, разумеется, было только началом. В октябре, как ожидается, на биржу выйдет Anthropic с оценкой от $1 до $2 трлн, OpenAI тоже на подходе.

Причём сотрудникам необязательно дожидаться IPO. По данным Financial Times, недавно OpenAI завершила тендер по выкупу акций у сотрудников почти на $7 млрд. Так что покупателям часов, арендаторам частных самолётов и желающим приобрести новый дом поближе к офису не нужно даже ждать, пока на Nasdaq прозвенит биржевой колокол2.

Деньги уже сейчас растекаются по экономике байбэками по $7 млрд. А значит, разумный вопрос звучит так: можно ли вообще остаться в стороне от бума искусственного интеллекта, или мы все туда втянуты, и грядущий крах станет общей проблемой?

Допустим, вас настораживал связанный с ИИ инвестиционный ажиотаж, и вместо них вы купили акции американских компаний малой капитализации. Что ж, дела у вас идут неплохо. Индекс Russell 2000 показал лучшее первое полугодие с 1991 года, прибавив примерно 22 %. Посмотришь на такие цифры и подумаешь: обычные американские компании поменьше сейчас на подъёме.

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Но в действительности 16 из 50 лидеров роста в этом индексе — производители полупроводников и оборудования для выпуска и тестирования чипов. Акции компаний по типу MaxLinear и Aehr Test Systems с начала года выросли, соответственно, на 250 % и 380 %. От бума искусственного интеллекта вы не увернулись; вы просто купили компании, которые продают для него кабели и испытательное оборудование.

Возможно, вы разумный приверженец стоимостного инвестирования. Вы не прикасаетесь к переоценённым акциям роста и купили Russell 1000 Value Index. Полагаю, сейчас вы собой довольны: стоимостный индекс с начала года вырос примерно на 20 %, тогда как индекс акций роста даже снизился. Похоже, стоимостное инвестирование снова в моде.

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Причина, по которой ваш фонд стоимостных акций так хорошо показал себя в этом году, состоит в том, что до недавнего времени он был набит стремительно дорожавшими полупроводниковыми компаниями: Micron, AMD, Western Digital. В конце июня составители индексов провели ежегодную ребалансировку. Эти акции из стоимостного индекса вывели и перенесли в индекс роста, а Amazon, Apple и Microsoft наоборот, переместили в стоимостный.

И по чистой случайности ребалансировка пришлась ровно на идеальный момент. Акции производителей чипов продали на самой вершине ралли — буквально перед тем, как котировки пошли вниз. При этом Amazon, Apple и Microsoft добавили в стоимостный индекс как раз тогда, когда их бумаги торговались у минимумов. Никакого хитрого инвестиционного расчёта за этим не стояло, всё решил календарь.

Управляющему фондом стоимостных акций, которого цитирует Wall Street Journal, оставалось только восхищаться тем, насколько удачно всё сложилось. «Индексу тут просто невероятно повезло, — сказал он. — Ему достался весь последний взлёт до самой вершины, а бумаги он продал буквально перед тем, как они пошли вниз». Для профессионального управляющего это, наверное, не самое приятное признание: его работа — отбирать стоимостные акции, а плановая ребалансировка индекса только что угадала момент продажи лучше него.

В общем, если вы вложились в фонд стоимостных акций, вам повезло дважды — сначала заработали на взлёте акций производителей чипов, а потом успели выйти из них на самом пике. Загвоздка только одна: что у вас теперь в портфеле. Вы вроде бы благоразумно выбрали фонд стоимостных акций, а теперь он набит акциями Amazon, Apple и Microsoft, тремя из крупнейших технологических компаний мира. Вполне возможно, вы покупали такой фонд именно для того, чтобы держаться от этих бумаг подальше. Вы вроде убежали от ставки на ИИ, а она замаскировалась и пролезла к вам в портфель.

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Но если остаться в стороне от искусственного интеллекта всё равно не получается, напрашивается очевидный вопрос: о каких суммах вообще идёт речь? Если пузырь вокруг ИИ начнёт сдуваться, сколько денег может испариться?

Начнём с экономиста Дина Бейкера, который ведёт сайт под названием AI Bubble Monitor («Монитор пузыря ИИ»). Если судить по названию, это чрезвычайно успокаивающий ресурс, который полагается открывать за утренним кофе сразу после прогноза погоды.

Расчёты Бейкера выглядят следующим образом. Общая стоимость американского фондового рынка составляет около $80 трлн. Если коэффициенты цены к прибыли просто вернутся к своему многолетнему среднему значению (речь не про обвал, а именно нормализацию), то стоимость биржевого рынка сократится примерно на $40 трлн. Как отмечает Бейкер, в среднем получается почти по $300 тыс. на каждое американское домохозяйство.

Правда, сумма обманчивая, это лишь среднее. Акциями в США владеют крайне неравномерно, и богатейшим 10 % домохозяйств принадлежит около 90 % всех акций. Если Илон Маск потеряет на SpaceX, скажем, $200 млрд, а ваш сосед — $4 тыс., средняя сумма потерь получится огромной, хотя почти ни для кого она не будет типичной. Обычное домохозяйство потеряет куда меньше по той простой причине, что у него изначально нет акций на $300 тыс., которые оно могло бы потерять.

Есть и другие оценки. По расчётам Гиты Гопинат, бывшего главного экономиста МВФ, коррекция, подобная той, что произошла во время краха доткомов, сегодня стоила бы американцам около $20 трлн, а иностранным инвесторам — ещё $15 трлн. Одни только потери американцев были бы равны примерно 70 % ВВП США.

Консультанты Oliver Wyman насчитали около $33 трлн возможных потерь. Это тоже больше, чем американская экономика производит за год.

Для сравнения: когда лопнул пузырь доткомов, фондовый рынок потерял около $6 трлн. А здесь оценки возможных потерь в пять-шесть раз выше. И это при том, что именно крах доткомов мы до сих пор вспоминаем, когда хотим показать, чем может закончиться подобный пузырь.

Три разных метода — и каждый даёт десятки триллионов долларов. По крайней мере, насчёт порядка величины потенциального ущерба договориться получается.

Вы вполне обоснованно можете спросить: ну и что? Всё равно это состояние существует только на бумаге. Если стоимость вашего пенсионного счёта внезапно падает на $100 тыс., наличных в кармане у вас не поубавится. Это правда, но эффект будет, а сегодня такие потери сказываются даже сильнее, чем раньше.

По данным Goldman Sachs и Федеральной резервной системы, в этом году акции впервые со времён Второй мировой войны обогнали недвижимость по доле в совокупном состоянии американских домохозяйств и стали основной составляющей. Почти всю современную историю главным активом обычной семьи был собственный дом, поэтому обвал фондового рынка был прежде всего проблемой богатых. Теперь всё иначе, именно на фондовом рынке сегодня сосредоточена значительная часть богатства медианного домохозяйства. А значит, современный обвал способен ударить по среднему классу так, как не мог в 2000 году.

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И здесь вступает в действие эффект богатства. Люди смотрят на свой брокерский счёт, видят там внушительную сумму, чувствуют себя богаче и начинают больше тратить: покупают автомобиль получше, новую кухню, отпуск подороже. У исследователей есть простое эмпирическое правило: на каждые дополнительные $100 биржевого состояния на бумаге приходится около $3 дополнительных трат на товары и услуги. Три доллара — вроде бы мелочь, пока не вспомнишь, что речь идёт о десятках триллионов.

Но эффект богатства работает в обе стороны. Если совокупное состояние домохозяйств сократится на 30 с лишним триллионов долларов, люди резко сократят расходы. Запланированный ремонт кухни отменят — подрядчик лишится заказа. У продавца автомобилей провалится квартал; как результат, автосалон сократит сотрудника. Так биржевое падение по цепочке ударит по реальной экономике, и для этого банкротство ни одного банка не потребуется. Достаточно, чтобы люди просто почувствовали себя немного беднее.

Но даже если вам кажется, что вы остались в стороне и вас всё это не касается, от бума ИИ уже зависят целые сегменты экономики, напрямую с ним не связанные. По расчётам экономиста Гарвардского университета Джейсона Фурмана, в первой половине прошлого года на вложения в инфраструктуру для ИИ пришлось около 90 % прироста экономики США. По более сдержанным оценкам — около четверти. Но какую оценку ни возьми, доля всё равно огромна, и значительная часть недавнего роста американской экономики приходится всего лишь на строительство дата-центров.

А теперь подумайте, сколько людей и компаний зависит от того, будут ли на инфраструктуру для искусственного интеллекта и дальше тратить такие деньги. И дело далеко не только в акционерах Nvidia. Вспомните электриков, о которых мы говорили в начале ролика. Или строительные бригады, которые заливают бетон. Или производителей систем кондиционирования, без которых серверы зажарились бы. А ещё тех, кто тянет кабели, делает трансформаторы и водит грузовики. Да хоть астронавтов, устанавливающих серверное оборудование в космосе.

Если капитальные расходы на ИИ замедлятся, доходы всех этих людей замедлятся вместе с ними. Причём пострадают они, даже если никогда в жизни не покупали ни одной акции.

Нобелевский лауреат Джозеф Стиглиц прямо говорит о мрачном сценарии. Такой обвал произойдёт ровно в тот момент, когда ИИ начнёт вытеснять работников. Поэтому множество домохозяйств рискует получить двойной удар: их сбережения подешевеют одновременно с тем, как рабочие места станут менее надёжными. По его словам, «лопнувший пузырь любого рода в краткосрочной перспективе крайне вреден для макроэкономики». По меркам нобелевского лауреата это практически крик.

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Если вам уже вспомнился 2008 год, то, наверное, аналогия слишком мрачная. Крупнейшие банки сегодня куда устойчивее, чем тогда: у них намного больше капитала, серьёзный запас ликвидности, а стресс-тесты они проходят каждый год. Так что оснований ждать нового Lehman Brothers нет.

Но дело здесь как раз не в банках, их сделали гораздо устойчивее. Более жёсткие правила в одной части финансовой системы не обязательно избавляют её от рискованного кредитования — оно может просто перетечь туда, где регулирование слабее.

Несколько недель назад газета Wall Street Journal выпустила материал под отличным заголовком: «Почему расходы технологических гигантов на ИИ на $3 трлн больше, чем кажется». Из квартала в квартал крупнейшие технологические компании не без гордости рассказывают о своих капитальных затратах на ИИ: дата-центры, чипы и прочую инфраструктуру. Если сложить всё, о чём они отчитались за последние 12 месяцев, получится около $600 млрд.

Но вот проблема: журналисты изучили примечания к отчётности этих компаний и обнаружили примерно $3 трлн связанных с ИИ дополнительных обязательств, которые вообще не отражены в балансе. Это впятеро больше капитальных расходов, о которых до сих пор шла речь. В эту сумму входят, например, долгосрочная аренда дата-центров и договоры, по которым компании обязались в будущем покупать чипы, вычислительные мощности и электроэнергию. И это уже не просто планы: эти деньги компаниям придётся потратить. Просто соответствующие обязательства указаны не в самом балансе, где их скорее стал бы искать неспециалист, а в примечаниях к отчётности. У одного только Alphabet таких обязательств по закупкам более чем на $800 млрд.

Аналитики уже называют это айсбергом расходов на ИИ. Даже огромные суммы, которые видны на поверхности — всего лишь его верхушка. Формально компании ничего не скрывают и ничего незаконного не делают, сведения обо всех этих обязательствах есть в примечаниях к отчётности (если, конечно, вы их читаете). А из них видно, что компании уже обязались потратить куда больше, чем можно предположить по суммам, которые обычно выносят в заголовки. И за каждым долларом этих обязательств стоит одно допущение: рано или поздно появится выручка от ИИ, которой хватит, чтобы всё это оплатить.

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Рынок начал это замечать. Стоимость страхования долгов крупнейших технологических компаний от дефолта недавно достигла рекордного уровня. А когда проблемы намечаются у компаний, стоящих в самом центре бума искусственного интеллекта, их начинают ощущать и те, кто давал этим компаниям деньги в долг. И здесь самое время поговорить о частном кредитовании.

За последние несколько лет фонды частного кредитования дали огромные деньги компаниям из сферы ИИ и разработки программного обеспечения. Они кредитуют бизнес напрямую, без участия традиционных банков, а регулируются куда слабее. Рынок частного кредитования тем временем разросся примерно до $2—3 трлн. И он начал поскрипывать.

Как сообщила в этом месяце Financial Times, у 20 крупнейших фондов частного кредитования, котирующихся на бирже, объём проблемных займов достиг максимума с 2017 года. По данным Fitch, в июле число дефолтов на этом рынке стало рекордным. Один крупный фонд сообщил: на проблемные займы приходится уже 7 % всего его кредитного портфеля. По сути, соруководитель одного из больших кредиторов заявил инвесторам, что стадия отрицания проблемы закончилась.

Справедливости ради, многие считают и эти опасения преувеличенными. Абсолютные уровни дефолтов всё ещё невелики и, если кредиторы вернут бо́льшую часть своих денег, реальные потери останутся скромными. Сегодня катастрофы нет. Тревогу вызывает не текущее значение показателя, а направление его движения и тот факт, что частное кредитование намеренно устроено так, чтобы разглядеть происходящее внутри оставалось затруднительным.

В слабо регулируемом и непрозрачном уголке финансов никто толком не знает, у кого именно находятся рискованные займы, пока что-нибудь не ломается и все не узнают об этом одновременно. В 2008 году мы уже проводили такой эксперимент (только набор аббревиатур был чуть другой), и закончился он, мягко говоря, не очень. Теперь мы повторяем эксперимент, видимо, чтобы убедиться в воспроизводимости результата.

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Сто́ит указать на любую из этих проблем, как примерно через 90 секунд в комментариях обязательно находится человек и сообщает, что всё это неважно, потому что ИИ — реальная технология, которая изменит мир. И он вполне может быть прав: впереди нас действительно может ждать огромный прирост производительности. Для ясности: компании уже сейчас считают искусственный интеллект очень полезным. Но есть один неудобный факт. Реальность, полезность и способность технологии изменить мир совершенно не защищают вас, если изначально вы переплатили за акции. Хороший бизнес — ещё не значит выгодное вложение.

Недавно Банк международных расчётов выпустил доклад, в котором сравнил нынешнее развёртывание инфраструктуры ИИ с британской железнодорожной манией 1840-х годов. И это вовсе не попытка похвалить искусственный интеллект за незаменимость в нашей жизни.

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Разумеется, железные дороги были настоящим технологическим прорывом и действительно преобразили мир. Они изменили то, куда мы путешествуем, куда отправляем товары и где селимся. Инвесторы 1840-х прекрасно поняли значение новой технологии, загорелись ею и сделали то, что инвесторы обычно делают с хорошими идеями: переборщили. Были предложены сотни новых железнодорожных линий, а объёмы вложений поражали воображение. К 1850 году совокупные инвестиции в железные дороги приблизились к половине всего ВВП Великобритании.

В разгар ажиотажа компании принялись строить дорогостоящие железнодорожные ветки к крошечным деревням и обнаружили, что пассажиров почти не было. С инженерной точки зрения всё было великолепно, вот только перроны пустовали. А у такой бизнес-модели, как давно известно, есть свои недостатки.

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К 1850 году железнодорожные акции потеряли около ⅔ стоимости. Пути остались на месте, поезда продолжили ходить, а железные дороги обеспечили столетие промышленного господства Британии. Но люди, заплатившие за всё это, были разорены. Железные дороги изменили мир. Железнодорожные инвесторы изменили свои потребительские привычки.

Именно такого сценария опасается Банк международных расчётов. Согласно исследованию БМР, если отсчитывать от начала каждого бума, инфраструктуру для ИИ уже наращивают быстрее, чем развивались на сопоставимом этапе железнодорожная мания, бум электрификации 1920-х годов и пузырь доткомов. На графике это самая крутая линия из всех.

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Предыдущие мании обычно ломались примерно на пятом году, после чего утаскивали экономику в рецессию. Сейчас мы находимся на третьем году, так что времени ещё предостаточно.

Возьмём пример посвежее — пузырь доткомов. Интернет ведь действительно не оказался мимолётной модой. Но телекоммуникационные компании сильно переоценили, сколько пропускной способности понадобится в будущем: они рассчитывали на практически безграничный спрос. Под эти ожидания компании заняли огромные суммы и проложили по всей Америке десятки миллионов километров оптоволоконного кабеля.

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Оптоволокна тогда проложили с огромным запасом, и его значительная часть потом годами оставалась невостребованной. Для них в отрасли даже появился отдельный термин — «тёмное волокно». По сути, телеком-компании создали магистрали современного Интернета примерно на десять лет раньше, чем спрос дорос до построенных мощностей. Большинство компаний разорилось, так и не дождавшись, когда эти сети начнут приносить деньги. Когда пузырь лопнул, S&P 500 потерял примерно половину стоимости, а Nasdaq — почти 80 %.

Но даже ставка на будущего победителя не обязательно спасла от последствий пузыря. Даже если вы не ошиблись, даже если выбрали лучшую компанию всей эпохи, вы всё равно могли на десять лет застрять в минусе.

Возьмём Amazon. С само́й компанией вы бы не ошиблись: она пережила крах доткомов и со временем стала одной из самых дорогих за всю историю. Но когда пузырь лопнул, её акции всё равно рухнули примерно на 90 %. Купи вы их на пике 1999 года, вы совершенно правильно оценили бы будущее интернет-торговли, но всё равно ждали бы до 2009, пока вложения снова выйдут в ноль. Можно было угадать и с развитием интернет-торговли, и с компанией, но всё равно прождать десять лет. Своё письмо акционерам за 2000 год Джефф Безос начал одним словом: «Ой».

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К тому же мало кто в 1999 году вложился бы только в Amazon. У типичного техноинвестора той эпохи кроме Amazon был целый набор бумаг вроде Pets.com, которые в итоге обнулились и значительно снизили доходность его портфеля на долгом горизонте. Поверить в технологию — как раз не самое сложное. Куда сложнее в разгар пузыря угадать, какая именно компания в итоге победит.

Представьте конец 1990-х. Вы совершенно верно решили, что будущее за Интернетом. Но этого мало, нужно ещё угадать, кто победит в интернет-поиске. В то время очевидным выбором могли показаться Infoseek, Lycos, AltaVista или Excite — крупнейшие и лучше всего финансируемые лидеры поиска, названия у всех на слуху. Сегодня о них вспоминают разве что в викторинах3. А победил Google, который во время дотком-пузыря ещё едва существовал и по-настоящему заявил о себе только в начале 2000-х, когда пузырь уже лопнул.

Задним числом легко решить, что нынешние лидеры просто не могли не победить. Но история подобных бумов показывает другое: первопроходцы в меняющих мир технологиях нередко за огромные деньги просто прокладывают дорогу. Затем по проложенной тропе идут те, кто и заработает деньги.

Но не спешите после всего сказанного распродавать всё, а потом бежать закупаться тушняком и патронами. У этой истории есть и другая сторона: инвесторы годами пытаются угадать, когда рынок технологических акций достигнет пика, и годами промахиваются.

В апреле 2022 года в New York Times вышла статья «Технологический пузырь, который так и не лопнул» (The Tech Bubble That Never Burst). Авторы газеты собрали прогнозы известных инвесторов за целое десятилетие, которые предупреждали о пузыре в технологическом секторе, но их прогнозы раз за разом не сбывались.

  • В 2011 году предприниматель Стив Бланк объявил, что мы находимся во втором интернет-пузыре и что сигналы громкие и однозначные.

  • В 2014 году венчурный инвестор Марк Андриссен предупредил, что стартапы, слишком быстро сжигающие деньги, ИСПАРЯТСЯ (он это так в верхнем регистре и записал).

  • Год спустя, в 2015, Марк Кьюбан заявил, что нынешний пузырь даже хуже технологического пузыря 2000 года.

  • В 2016 опытный инвестор Джим Брейер решил, что запахло жареным и предсказал, что 90 % компаний-единорогов либо подешевеют, либо вовсе не выживут.

  • А в 2021 году Джереми Грэнтэм, легендарный инвестор, правильно распознавший несколько крупнейших пузырей в истории, пообещал, что и этот в должное время лопнет.

Но больше всего мне нравится то, что The New York Times опубликовала эту статью в апреле 2022 года — практически в тот самый месяц, когда технологические акции начали одно из худших падений за поколение. В том году Nasdaq потерял примерно треть стоимости. Материал о том, что пророки катастроф всегда ошибаются, вышел почти точно в тот момент, когда они ненадолго оказались правы.

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В этой истории как раз и видна главная проблема. «Медведи» обычно начинают бить тревогу слишком рано и часто оказываются неправы. Иногда рынок вдруг подтверждает их правоту, но к тому моменту большинство уже перестаёт их слушать. Именно поэтому я не пытаюсь здесь предсказать крах. И уж точно из сказанного не следует, что нужно всё продавать.

Более того, даже если бы вы купили акции на самом пике рынка в 1999 году, накануне кризиса 2008 или прямо перед пандемией COVID-19, а затем просто ничего не продавали, к сегодняшнему дню результат всё равно был бы вполне достойным. Проблема в том, что попытка избежать обвала требует угадать дважды. Допустим, вы вовремя вышли из рынка. Но теперь нужно ещё понять, когда возвращаться, а это ничуть не проще. И раз стабильно угадывать такие моменты никто не умеет, вывод из всей этой истории получается куда скучнее.

Не так давно Джейсон Цвейг писал в Wall Street Journal о том, как хотя бы немного снизить зависимость от бума ИИ. Один из вариантов — Европа. Правда, комплиментов континенту он не делал, назвав его, цитирую, «музеем под открытым небом, где население стареет, а экономики скованы артритом». Жителям Европы читать такую фразу неприятно, да и для туристической кампании она подошла бы довольно мрачная.

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Но в некотором смысле это нелестное описание и есть главный аргумент. Европейские акции сравнительно дёшевы именно потому, что ажиотажа вокруг них почти нет. Доля технологического сектора в европейском индексе составляет лишь около 10 %, тогда как в S&P 500 она приближается к половине. И стоимостные инвесторы смотрят на Европу именно потому, что туда пока не пришли ни всеобщее возбуждение, ни сопровождающие его высокие оценки. Вместо ИИ и колонизации Марса индекс в основном состоит из банков, промышленных предприятий и медицинских компаний. Денежные потоки у них стабильные, дивидендная доходность — около 3 %, так что и пережидать получится не бесплатно.

Но дело не только в том, чтобы купить что-нибудь скучное и надеяться на лучшее. Цвейг приводит слова управляющего одного из фондов Fidelity: дивидендная доходность около 3 % — своего рода балласт на случай, если ожидания от искусственного интеллекта не оправдаются. Логика такова: если S&P 500 пойдёт вниз, европейские акции, скорее всего, подешевеют меньше просто потому, что в их ценах накопилось меньше спекулятивной надбавки, которую придётся устранять. По выражению управляющего, это гавань на время шторма.

Другая управляющая, с которой поговорил Цвейг, считает стереотип о закостенелой Европе устаревшим. По её словам, крупные европейские компании сейчас активно перестраиваются и сокращают издержки, и таких темпов она не видела за всю карьеру. Поэтому смысл этой ставки вовсе не в том, чтобы покупать унылые компании вчерашнего дня. Просто инвесторы ждут от них сравнительно немногого, а значит, у этих компаний остаётся возможность приятно удивить рынок. Эффект будет прямо противоположный тому, который даст покупка самых модных акций в мире при коэффициенте P/E 40.

Важно уточнить, что сам Цвейг никакого обвала не предсказывает. Более того, он прямо пишет, что опасения по поводу чрезмерной концентрации американского рынка, скорее всего, преувеличены. История не подтверждает, что огромная доля нескольких компаний сама по себе ведёт к низкой доходности, пишет он. А если ваш портфель и без того диверсифицирован по всему миру, возможно, менять вообще ничего не нужно. Цвейг предлагает не разводить панику с резкими движениями и лишь немного увеличить долю европейских акций. Об этом и весь этот материал.

Я вовсе не пытаюсь сказать, что всё пропало. Смысл в другом: если так вышло, что всё ваше состояние оказалось завязано на одну-единственную рыночную ставку, полезно помнить, что на ней свет клином не сошёлся.

Тут мы возвращаемся к волшебному слову из начала видео: диверсификация.

Многие думают, что для диверсификации достаточно купить акции 50 разных технологических компаний, которые все дружно растут.

Это не диверсификация, так вы просто идёте за толпой на «бычьем» рынке. Как замечает Цвейг, если ваши активы растут одновременно, то и падать они, скорее всего, будут одновременно. А диверсификация нужна как раз затем, чтобы этого избежать. Поэтому портфель намеренно собирают так, чтобы в один плохой день не посыпалось всё сразу. На практике это означает держать и такие активы, за которые вам будет слегка неловко.

Пока на гриле жарится мясо, сосед рассказывает о вложениях в SpaceX и колл-опционах на Nvidia, а вам приходится признаться, что добрая часть вашего состояния зависит от надёжной работы швейцарской фармацевтической компании и шотландского водоканала. На следующее барбекю с таким рассказом могут и не позвать. Зато именно скучные активы зачастую переживают падение тех, которыми хвастать было куда интереснее.

И в этом главный вывод: в долгосрочных инвестициях вообще незачем искать острых ощущений. Если посмотреть на финансовую историю, то самая будоражащая сделка любой эпохи очень часто оказывается той самой, которая впоследствии разоряет тех, кто набился в неё за компанию.

В начале 1970-х термином Nifty Fifty («классные пятьдесят») называли 50 американских голубых фишек4. Считалось, что достаточно купить их один раз, и больше никогда не продавать. Считалось так ровно до обвала 1973–1974 годов, когда они потеряли бо́льшую часть стоимости.

К концу 1980-х мало кто сомневался: будущее мировой экономики — за Японией, и её фондовый рынок уже ничто не остановит. А потом рынок почти три десятилетия топтался на месте. Тот, кто вложился в японские акции на пике 1989 года, ждал больше 30 лет, чтобы просто выйти в ноль.

А Nasdaq, как мы уже обсуждали, понадобилось около 15 лет, чтобы вернуться к уровню 2000 года.

В своё время ни одна из этих ставок не казалась глупой. Наоборот, на них и ставило большинство. Это были заманчивые, вроде бы очевидные идеи, в которых уже никто не сомневался. Именно поэтому они были так опасны.

Отсюда и вывод. Необязательно посещать каждую вечеринку. И незачем ставить всё своё состояние на самый модный сегмент рынка только потому, что о нём говорят все вокруг, а какой-то человек в Интернете уверяет вас, что цены там могут только расти.

Бум искусственного интеллекта вполне может оправдать нынешние ожидания. Множество серьёзных людей считают именно так, и они могут оказаться правы. Но признать, что технология реальна, и решить, что связанные с ней акции есть резон покупать по нынешним ценам — совершенно разные вещи. Финансовая история полна примеров того, как инвесторы путали одно с другим.

Цель пенсионного инвестирования не в том, чтобы рассказывать интересные истории на званых ужинах. Цель — однажды выйти на пенсию.


Примечания переводчика

  1. На биржевом жаргоне «быками» называют участников рынка, рассчитывающих на рост цен, а «медведями» — рассчитывающих на их падение. Отсюда же происходят «бычий» рынок (растущий, с преобладанием оптимистичных ожиданий) и «медвежий» (падающий, с преобладанием пессимистичных). Названия обычно объясняют через образы атаки животных: бык поддевает рогами вверх, медведь бьет лапой вниз.

  2. В данной метонимии подразумевается день IPO, когда акции компании впервые начинают торговаться публично. При этом сотрудники не могут сбыть свою долю в течение периода локапа, который Бойль здесь не упоминает. Традиционно запрет прописывают около 180 дней, хотя конкретные детали варьируются.

    В случае SpaceX прописана ступенчатая схема. Для основной группы акций установлен 180-дневный локап, однако ограничения снимаются несколькими траншами ещё до его полного истечения. Первая такая разблокировка произошла через два полных торговых дня после публикации финансовых результатов за II квартал (документ выложили 4 августа). Уже 6 августа рядовые сотрудники и часть ранних инвесторов получили возможность продать до 911,5 млн акций. Ещё около 319 млн акций стали доступны для продажи 20 августа. Для акций Илона Маска установлен отдельный 366-дневный локап без возможности досрочной разблокировки.

    Традиция обозначать начало и конец торгов звуковым сигналом возникла на Нью-Йоркской фондовой бирже ещё в 1870-х годах. Первоначально звонили в китайский гонг, а в 1903 году после переезда в текущее здание по Брод-стрит по торговым залам начал разноситься звук латунного колокола с электрическим приводом. Приглашённому гостю впервые доверили открыть торги ударом в колокол в 1956 году; это был 10-летний мальчик, выигравший в телевикторине. Современная традиция регулярных церемоний с участием приглашённых гостей сформировалась относительно недавно, в 1995 году, по инициативе нового председателя и генерального директора NYSE Ричарда Грассо, стремившегося превратить биржу в узнаваемый бренд.

    У Nasdaq, которая с самого свого начала в 1971 году функционирует как электронный рынок котировок без традиционного торгового зала, звон колокола изначально носил церемониальный характер. После обратного отсчёта почётный гость нажимает кнопку, символически открывая рынок в 9:30 по нью-йоркскому времени. С 1999 года основной площадкой таких церемоний служит комплекс Nasdaq MarketSite на Таймс-сквер в Нью-Йорке.

  3. Патрик Бойль говорит, что компании обнулились («a basket of stocks […] that all went to zero») и приводит в качестве примера Pets.com. Если придраться, акционеры при ликвидации компании получили сначала по $0,09 на акцию, а год спустя — ещё по $0,075.

    Pets.com — интернет-магазин товаров для домашних животных, основанный в октябре 1998 года и начавший коммерческую деятельность в феврале 1999 года. После череды инвестиций и даже выхода на биржу Nasdaq компания так и не сумела достичь прибыльности и 7 ноября 2000 года объявила о сворачивании бизнеса.

    Infoseek — один из крупных поисковиков и интернет-порталов 1990-х. 17 ноября 1999 года акционеры Infoseek одобрили выкуп компанией Disney оставшихся 58 % поисковика. После этого Infoseek полностью перешёл под её контроль; затем интернет-бизнес связали с брендом GO.com, но эксперимент оказался недолгим. В 2001 году Disney закрыла портальный бизнес GO.com и списала в связи с этим $820 млн нематериальных активов. На этом история Infoseek как самостоятельного массового сервиса фактически закончилась.

    Lycos — поисковик и портал, к 2000 году выросший за счёт поглощений в целую мультибрендовую сеть из, например, Tripod, Angelfire и HotBot. В октябре 2000 года испанская Terra Networks получила Lycos в результате обмена акций, а в октябре 2004 года продала его южнокорейской Daum Communications. Сайт Lycos.com влачит существование и по сей день, но былой важности давно не имеет.

    AltaVista — поисковик, запущенный Digital Equipment Corporation в 1995 году. После покупки Digital сервис достался Compaq, а в 1999 году последняя продала контроль над AltaVista компании CMGI. В феврале 2003 года Overture договорилась купить AltaVista за $140 млн наличными и акциями. Сделка была завершена в апреле. Уже в октябре саму Overture купила Yahoo. Там AltaVista прожила ещё почти десять лет, а 8 июля 2013 года Yahoo закрыла сайт и отправила пользователей в Yahoo Search.

    Excite — ещё один ранний поисковик, к концу 1990-х превратившийся в большой интернет-портал. 28 мая 1999 года Excite слился с At Home Corporation, а объединённая компания получила название Excite@Home. 28 сентября 2001 года Excite@Home начала процедуру реорганизации по главе 11 кодекса США о банкротстве, после чего её активы начали распродавать. Портальные активы Excite достались Interactive Search Holdings, а поисковая технология — InfoSpace. В 2004 году саму ISH купила Ask Jeeves. Как и Lycos, бренд пережил компанию-создателя, и Excite.com открывается до сих пор.

  4. При попытках восстановить состав Nifty Fifty обычно используют два разных списка по 50 компаний — Morgan Guaranty Trust и Kidder, Peabody & Co. При этом второй список — это ежемесячная подборка 50 торгуемых на Нью-Йоркской фондовой бирже акций с наиболее высокими коэффициентами P/E. Два списка совпадали только по 24 компаниям, поэтому суммарно в них фигурировали 76 разных названий. В оба, например, входили Coca-Cola, Eastman Kodak, Xerox, Avon Products и Johnson & Johnson, а в списке Morgan Guaranty также были IBM, General Electric, Sears, 3M и Procter & Gamble.

    Согласно словарю Nasdaq, компания считаются голубой фишкой, если она крупная, кредитоспособная, известна за счёт качества и широкого признания своих товаров и услуг, способна получать прибыль и выплачивать дивиденды. Комиссия по ценным бумагам и биржам США в своём определении голубых фишек делает больший упор на размер и историю роста.


Источник

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    I recovered my $232,000 refund through the assistance of [email protected] and WhatsApp +19852969146. Their guidance was very helpful.

  • 20.06.26 14:57 michaeldavenport218

    I was recently scammed out of $53,000 by a fraudulent Bitcoin investment scheme, which added significant stress to my already difficult health issues, as I was also facing cancer surgery expenses. Desperate to recover my funds, I spent hours researching and consulting other victims, which led me to discover the excellent reputation of Capital Crypto Recover, I came across a Google post It was only after spending many hours researching and asking other victims for advice that I discovered Capital Crypto Recovery’s stellar reputation. I decided to contact them because of their successful recovery record and encouraging client testimonials. I had no idea that this would be the pivotal moment in my fight against cryptocurrency theft. Thanks to their expert team, I was able to recover my lost cryptocurrency back. The process was intricate, but Capital Crypto Recovery's commitment to utilizing the latest technology ensured a successful outcome. I highly recommend their services to anyone who has fallen victim to cryptocurrency fraud. For assistance contact [email protected] and on Telegram OR Call Number +1 (336)390-6684 via email: [email protected] you can visit his website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 20.06.26 14:57 michaeldavenport218

    I was recently scammed out of $53,000 by a fraudulent Bitcoin investment scheme, which added significant stress to my already difficult health issues, as I was also facing cancer surgery expenses. Desperate to recover my funds, I spent hours researching and consulting other victims, which led me to discover the excellent reputation of Capital Crypto Recover, I came across a Google post It was only after spending many hours researching and asking other victims for advice that I discovered Capital Crypto Recovery’s stellar reputation. I decided to contact them because of their successful recovery record and encouraging client testimonials. I had no idea that this would be the pivotal moment in my fight against cryptocurrency theft. Thanks to their expert team, I was able to recover my lost cryptocurrency back. The process was intricate, but Capital Crypto Recovery's commitment to utilizing the latest technology ensured a successful outcome. I highly recommend their services to anyone who has fallen victim to cryptocurrency fraud. For assistance contact [email protected] and on Telegram OR Call Number +1 (336)390-6684 via email: [email protected] you can visit his website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 21.06.26 11:09 Maurizio Rolland

    I would like to express my sincere appreciation to RESQPRO FIRM for their outstanding assistance in helping victims of online fraud. Many scammers deceive investors by blocking withdrawals and continuously demanding additional deposits, making the loss of hard-earned funds a painful experience. Fortunately, RESQPRO FIRM provides support to individuals seeking to recover funds lost to fraudulent online schemes. Contact: Email: RESQPRO FIRM at Gmail Telegram: RESQPROFIRM, [email protected], WhatsApp: +1 985 296 9146

  • 21.06.26 11:13 Buse Fahri

    It is important for more people to stand together in the fight against online fraud. Those who target innocent individuals especially vulnerable people such as seniors should be held fully accountable for their actions. Every effort to raise awareness and support victims makes a meaningful difference. The team at RESQPRO FIRM is committed to helping expose fraudulent schemes and assisting those affected by online scams. Their dedication, persistence, and passion for protecting victims are truly commendable. I sincerely appreciate the hard work and commitment shown toward this mission. Together, we can continue to educate others, support victims, and work toward a safer online environment for everyone. Contact Information: Telegram: RESQPROFIRM WhatsApp: +1 985 296 9146 Email: [email protected], [email protected]

  • 21.06.26 11:16 علیرضا گلشن

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  • 22.06.26 21:51 kimberlyhebert786

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  • 22.06.26 21:51 kimberlyhebert786

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  • 24.06.26 01:28 Fraddy Pual

    I never thought it would happen to me—but I lost $256,100 in Bitcoin through a shady investment deal. I was shattered, panicked, and convinced my savings were gone forever. Just when I was about to give up, I stumbled upon reviews for FUNDSRETRIEVER, a cyber recovery team with a solid reputation. I decided to give it a shot, and to my absolute shock, they recovered every single cent in record time. Working with them was a lifesaver. If you've been tricked by fake investment platforms, don't lose hope—FUNDSRETRIEVER can help. Contact them here: Email: [email protected] | WhatsApp: +16035121448 | Telegram: @Fundsretriever.

  • 24.06.26 01:58 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 24.06.26 01:58 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 24.06.26 14:16 Universina da Mota

    Becoming a victim of an investment scam is never anyone's intention it often happens because fraudsters exploit trust and a lack of awareness. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the dedicated team at ResQpro for their professionalism and commitment to helping victims of online investment fraud. Their efforts in assisting individuals with the recovery of stolen assets and holding scammers accountable are truly commendable. If you need assistance or would like to learn more, you can contact them through: Email: [email protected] Alternative Email: [email protected] Telegram: @ResQprofirm WhatsApp: +1 (985) 296-9146

  • 24.06.26 14:21 Elizabeth Thompson

    If you believe you have been the victim of an investment scam, it is important to act promptly and gather all relevant information. Keep records of transaction receipts, wallet addresses, communication logs, account details, and any other evidence related to the incident. Providing accurate documentation can help investigators, financial institutions, legal professionals, or recovery specialists review your case and determine what options may be available. Be cautious of anyone who guarantees the recovery of lost funds or requests large upfront payments. For additional information, you may contact: Email: [email protected] Telegram: @ResQprofirm WhatsApp: +1 (985) 296-9146

  • 24.06.26 15:33 Júlia Castro

    If you have fallen victim to an investment scam, it is important to act quickly and gather all available evidence related to the incident. This may include transaction records, wallet addresses, screenshots of conversations, emails, account details, and any information connected to the individuals or entities involved. Having complete documentation can help professionals assess your situation and explore possible recovery options. Always exercise caution when seeking assistance and carefully verify the credentials of any service provider before proceeding. For further information, you may contact: Email: [email protected] Telegram: @ResQprofirm WhatsApp: +1 (985) 296-9146

  • 24.06.26 22:01 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 24.06.26 22:01 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 25.06.26 21:13 Emilie Safi

    A fraudulent investment scheme operated by BTCMining.limited functions as a fake return scam. In this setup, scammers lure victims with false promises of high returns. Through manipulative tactics, they gain individuals' trust and convince them to invest, ultimately leading to financial loss. If you have ever faced a cyber threat or fallen victim to an online crypto scam and need to reach the authorities, I recommend contacting [email protected], [email protected], WhatsApp +19852969146, telegram @resqprofirm. They are a legitimate team that helps victims of online crypto scams using advanced tools.

  • 25.06.26 21:25 Emilie Safi

    So I ended up losing $38,000 to this platform. At first, they kept asking me to put in more money so I could get into my portfolio. I did that, but then they wouldn’t let me withdraw anything—just kept asking for more deposits. It got way too suspicious, so I stopped. I found this company called ResQProfirm on Google and told them what happened. They got in touch, asked me to walk them through everything, and I gave them all the proof I had. They did an amazing job tracking down my money and getting it back. Big thanks to them at [email protected] and on WhatsApp at +19852969146. Please be careful out there and always research before investing.

  • 26.06.26 01:04 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 26.06.26 01:04 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 26.06.26 02:48 Miriam Rocha

    I trusted this platform with $120,000 of my hard-earned money. Then they started asking for more deposits just so I could access my own portfolio. I paid, but every withdrawal request was denied. They kept pushing for more money. I finally stopped it just felt wrong. Desperate, I found ResQProfirm on Google. They didn't just hear me out; they truly listened. I shared all my proof, and they launched an investigation. Thanks to their hard work, they tracked and returned my funds. From the bottom of my heart, thank you to [email protected] and their WhatsApp +19852969146. Please stay safe and always verify a platform before investing

  • 26.06.26 02:52 Miško Bakić

    I got my $232,000 refund thanks to [email protected] and WhatsApp +19852969146. Highly recommended for anyone in a similar situation.

  • 26.06.26 02:56 Asunción Herrera

    A recovery of $48,330 was facilitated by [email protected]. Individuals who have experienced financial fraud may consider contacting this service.

  • 26.06.26 15:05 Riley Stephens

    If withdrawals keep getting denied, stay calm. I went through the same, and this firm helped me recover everything. Their assistance was outstanding. Contact: [ResQProFirm @Gmail|•|com], Telegram: ResQprofirm, WhatsApp: <+198> <5296> <9146>.

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  • 28.06.26 00:37 kimberlyhebertt673

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  • 28.06.26 00:37 kimberlyhebertt673

    I invested in bitcoin trading After losing $78.4 USDT) linked to a romance fraud scam worth of cryptocurrency through an online investment platform and later discovered it was a scam. After extensive research for recovery options, I contacted CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER based on positive client reviews and recommendations. Their professional security team guided me through the recovery process using advanced technology, and I was able to recover my lost cryptocurrency successfully. I am truly grateful for their support and assistance during such a difficult experience. I will advise you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER helped me recover my funds. For anyone facing similar issues, Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1 Email: [email protected] Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] Call/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684

  • 29.06.26 11:57 Lisadonato0726

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  • 29.06.26 22:37 riley777

    Back in 2025, I watched my life savings vanish. A thief took every cent. I felt desperate and went looking for a way to get it back. I found a guy here who said he was an expert haha. He talked about special software that could find my missing cash. I trusted him. That was a big mistake. He was just another scammer. I paid him a software fee and then he just stopped answering my texts and ran off with my money too. I felt so ashamed that I kept quiet about it for months. It is hard to admit you got fooled twice. Later on, I found a real pro. she did not use a fancy sales pitch. she just looked at the trans screenshots and followed the path the money took. she worked fast and got my funds back into my account. Having that money back changed everything. I can sleep again. her info; [email protected]. Call/chatroom on Whtasapp/ +44 7476618364.

  • 30.06.26 15:08 wendytaylor015

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  • 30.06.26 15:08 wendytaylor015

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  • 02.07.26 01:22 Lieneke Bonnema

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  • 05.07.26 14:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 05.07.26 14:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 06.07.26 16:20 Olga Ognjanović

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  • 06.07.26 16:31 Joseph Weigl

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  • 06.07.26 16:33 Jaran Løvlien

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  • 07.07.26 18:00 robertalfred175

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  • 07.07.26 18:01 robertalfred175

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  • 09.07.26 19:06 Toivo Walli

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  • 09.07.26 19:10 Misty Alexander

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  • 12.07.26 03:30 Kora Baltacha

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  • 13.07.26 23:49 [email protected]

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  • 15.07.26 11:53 Sarah Green

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 18.07.26 17:12 Malthe Larsen

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  • 18.07.26 23:51 bernalzenaida

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  • 19.07.26 04:10 Fraddy Pual

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:54 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 30.07.26 00:04 Ahmed

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  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 31.07.26 16:21 rssllhrnsb

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TEXT : (tatianasorina06 at G.Ma IL ..c 0 m ) Before committing money to any investment, take time to verify the legitimacy of the platform, confirm any relevant regulatory authorisations, and avoid investing more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

  • 01.08.26 15:05 keithwilson9899

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  • 01.08.26 15:05 keithwilson9899

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  • 03.08.26 20:05 Philip

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    I was a victim of a crypto theft involving a Pink Drainer, which resulted in the theft of my Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) from my Polygon network. The experience was incredibly frustrating and distressing, as I had no idea how to recover my funds. Unfortunately, by the time I noticed the theft, the funds had already been drained to an address that I had no control over, making it seem like an irreversible situation.The attack happened when I clicked on what appeared to be a legitimate link. I didn’t realize at the time that it was a phishing attempt designed to siphon off my private keys and access my wallet. The Pink Drainer, a type of malicious script used by attackers, is specifically designed to exploit such vulnerabilities in crypto wallets. The moment I realized that my WBTC had been drained from my Polygon network. I felt completely helpless, as I didn’t have direct access to the thief's address, and there was no way to reverse the transaction on my own at that point, I started searching for ways to recover my funds, but most resources only offered generic advice that wasn’t practical in this particular case. I quickly realized that if I wanted to have any hope of getting my assets back, I would need professional assistance. After some research, I came across a reliable and trusted recovery team called Aspen Recovery Experts. Their expertise in cryptocurrency recovery, especially in cases like mine, seemed promising.I decided to reach out to Aspen Recovery Experts, and I’m incredibly grateful that I did. Their team of crypto recovery experts was able to help me trace the stolen funds and identify the path the funds took after they left my wallet. Using advanced tools and techniques, they were able to track the transactions on the blockchain, helping me understand where my WBTC had been sent. More importantly, they worked tirelessly to assist me in contacting the necessary parties and even interfaced with blockchain analysts to help facilitate the recovery process.Thanks to their efforts, I was able to successfully recover my stolen funds. The entire process took some time, but the Aspen Recovery Experts dedicated team provided regular updates and kept me informed throughout the process, which gave me a sense of hope and relief during an otherwise stressful time. If you’re ever in a similar situation, I highly recommend reaching out to a trusted recovery team like Aspen Recovery Expertshhh . Their professionalism, knowledge, and expertise were critical in helping me recover my funds and regain control of my crypto assets. Whatsapp : +1 747 231 9036 Telegram : @ prohackerspy Email : [email protected]

  • 04.08.26 11:05 Kisnoles

    Excellent analysis, thank you. I was particularly struck by how rigidly the skill sets the order: data processing and form come first, with color coming last. This really cures the habit of "first a pretty palette, then we'll figure it out." A palette validator using OKLCH + color blindness + WCAG is something most chart generators lack. And regarding the boundaries of competence, it's very clear. Where there's a self-checking loop (color), you delegate freely. Where there's a heuristic (form, data interpretation), you remain the final filter. This is a universal principle, not just for /dataviz. By the way, when you look at trading dashboards (including those of decent platforms like ExpertOption), it's immediately clear who thought about readability and who just threw in rainbow lines. Tools like this skill could greatly improve the quality of analytics. Thanks again for the detailed analysis – saved.

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  • 23.08.26 20:02 leslieyee

    Excellent analysis by /dataviz! I was particularly struck by how strictly the order is defined: "data meaning first, color last" and how the validator actually adjusts the palette according to OKLCH, color blindness, and WCAG standards. These rules greatly improve the quality of charts. By the way, a similar approach to clean and legible charts is highly valued in trading—for example, on the ExpertOption platform, the interface and price visualization are designed to ensure information is read instantly and without unnecessary noise.

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