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[Перевод] Почему генеративный ИИ не стал повсеместным?

Всем привет!
Меня зовут Александр, я COO в SaaS-платформе аналитики данных. Последний год активно изучаю внедрение AI-решений в кросс-функциональные процессы. Делюсь полезными материалами, которые считаю стоят внимания. В основном про AI, изменение процессов, тренды и продуктовое видение.

У себя в телеграм-канале делюсь сжатыми и структурированными саммери статей.

Сегодняшний перевод статьи Benedict Evans — одного из самых влиятельных аналитиков в мире технологий, бывший партнер Andreessen Horowitz, автор популярной рассылки и докладов о трендах в IT.

Интересный взгляд, особенно понравился вывод 😅
Если вы каждый день используете пять LLM, а ваши друзья такие же, вы находитесь в пузыре, это не мейнстрим


Загадка распространения GenAI.

Чат-боты с генеративным ИИ могут кардинально изменить природу вычислений и заменить всё программное обеспечение, но пока большинство пользователей обращаются к ним лишь раз в неделю или две, и гораздо меньше людей интегрировали их в свою жизнь. Это проблема времени или продукта?

Распространение GenAI
Распространение GenAI

Этот график вызывает вопрос: «стакан наполовину пуст или наполовину полон?», и это действительно загадка.

Можно сказать, что это поразительно быстрое распространение, гораздо быстрее, чем у ПК, интернета или смартфонов. 30% за два года! В каком-то смысле это не совсем корректное сравнение — ChatGPT — это просто веб-сайт, он получает повсеместное освещение в СМИ (это часть работы Сэма Альтмана), и вам не нужно покупать устройство за тысячу долларов или ждать, пока операторы развернут широкополосный доступ. Любой может просто зайти и использовать его сегодня, так что, конечно, распространение идёт быстрее. Но в любом случае, 30%!

Однако другая реакция заключается в том, чтобы сказать, что даже с учётом этих преимуществ, если это кардинальное изменение в возможностях вычислений, почему соотношение DAU(Daily Active Users)/WAU(Weekly Active Users) так плохо? От 5% до 15% людей находят применение этому ежедневно, но по крайней мере вдвое больше людей знакомы с ним, знают, как он работает и как им пользоваться… и всё же находят его полезным только раз в неделю. Опять же, вам не нужно было покупать устройство за тысячу долларов, так что вы не привязаны — но если это ТА САМАЯ ВЕЩЬ — почему большинство людей пожимают плечами?

Стоит также отметить, что когда социальные сети были чем-то новым, мы быстро осознали, что числа «еженедельно активные пользователи» и «ежемесячно активные пользователи» были ерундой. Если кто-то использовал WhatsApp или Instagram только раз в месяц, это действительно не приносило ему пользы. DAU — это всё. Сэм Альтман это прекрасно понимает — ведь сам раньше пытался запустить приложение для соцсетей. Но показатель, о котором он всегда говорит — это «еженедельные активные пользователи». Это действительно впечатляющее число (сейчас уже 1 миллиард по всему миру)… Но почему он приводит именно этот показатель, а не число ежедневных пользователей (DAU)? Если вы заходите в ChatGPT всего раз в неделю, насколько этот сервис действительно полезен для вас?

Возможно, этот разрыв — просто вопрос времени: модели будут совершенствоваться, люди будут отказываться от старых привычек и формировать новые, и когорты WAU и тех, кто «заглядывал полгода назад», превратятся в DAU. S-кривая пойдёт вверх. Но возможно также, что мы находимся в той части S-кривой, которая предшествовала iPhone: скрытая возможность есть, всё, кажется, работает, и мы все видим, что это будет нечто огромное, но нам нужно что-то, что это кристаллизует. Итак, это может быть проблема времени, или это может быть проблема продукта. Приглашаем Джони Айва? (главный дизайнер Apple)

Возможно также, что чат-бот как чат-бот является правильным пользовательским интерфейсом только для некоторых людей и некоторых случаев использования, и большинство людей будут воспринимать эту технологию как функции и возможности, встроенные в другие вещи. Я не думаю, что мы можем это знать. Когда я только начинал работать аналитиком в телекоммуникациях в 2000 году, все постоянно спрашивали меня: «А какое же уникальное, по-настоящему нужное применение будет у 3G?» На самом деле, это был неправильный вопрос: главное, ради чего стоило иметь интернет в кармане, — это сам факт иметь интернет в кармане, но реализовать это нужно было по-другому.

Но как бы ни разрешились эти вопросы, важно помнить, что если вы используете пять различных LLM каждый день и не делали поиск в Google в этом году, и все ваши друзья такие же… тогда вы пока находитесь в пузыре.

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  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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