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[Перевод] Мозг и системы машинного обучения: сравнение масштабов

Эпистемологический статус: весьма неопределённый. В литературе приводятся обширные, но ненадёжные данные, и в этой статье я делаю некоторые весьма грубые допущения. Тем не менее, я удивлюсь, если мои заключения отличаются от истины более чем на 1-2 порядка.

В настоящее время мозг — это единственный известный пример AGI (сильного искусственного интеллекта). Даже мелкие животные с крошечными мозгами демонстрируют впечатляющую степень владения сильным искусственным интеллектом, в том числе, гибкость и агентное поведение в сложном мире, характеризующемся высокой неопределённостью. Если мы хотим понять, в какой степени современное машинное обучение приблизило нас к AGI, то стоит попробовать количественно оценить мощность мозга. Хотя уже проделано много отличной работы, дающей представление о возможностях мозга и о том, как эти данные экстраполируются на хронологию развития ИИ, мне никогда не удавалось по-настоящему разобраться в вопросе кроме как на практике. Так что ниже я решил проанализировать мозг в терминах современного машинного обучения и попытаюсь на основе этого анализа предположить, на что можно рассчитывать на текущем этапе разработки AGI.

Первым делом в этой статье давайте постараемся составить ориентировочное количественное представление о числовых показателях, характеризующих работу мозга и современных систем машинного обучения. Давайте обрисуем, сколько в мозге нейронов и синапсов, чтобы можно было сравнить мозг с крупномасштабными системами машинного обучения. Согласно наиболее общим оценкам, в человеческом мозге от 80 до 100 миллиардов нейронов. Здесь есть важный момент, который часто обходят вниманием, сравнивая мозг и фреймворк для машинного обучения: дело в том, что мозг не является единой монолитной системой, а состоит из множества субъединиц, отличающихся как по внутреннему строению, так и по функциональной специализации. Чтобы приблизиться к реальному пониманию процессов, происходящих в мозге, нужно уточнить, как именно эти 80 — 100 миллиардов нейронов распределены между зонами мозга.

Оказывается, исключительно сложно найти конкретные и надёжные цифры такого рода. Прямо удивительно, насколько плохо в нейронауках со сбором и предоставлением надёжных данных даже по самым базовым и глобальным вопросам, таким, как затронутый здесь.

Наилучшие, максимально полные и самые близкие к истине данные, которые мне удалось найти, взяты из проекта «Голубой Атлас Мозга», в рамках которого картируется мозг мыши. Ниже показано, какая доля нейронов уже картирована в каждом макрорегионе мышиного мозга (известно, что всего в мышином мозге около 100 миллионов нейронов).

Процентное соотношение общего количества нейронов для каждой из крупных зон мозга у мыши
Процентное соотношение общего количества нейронов для каждой из крупных зон мозга у мыши

Здесь нашлась пара вещей, которые изрядно меня удивили, хотя, наверное, не должны были. Во-первых — насколько огромен, оказывается, мозжечок. В нём больше нейронов, чем во всей коре больших полушарий! Вероятно, самый большой пробел в нейрофизиологии заключается в том, насколько слабо мы до сих пор представляем, что делает мозжечок и как именно он работает, несмотря на то, как он велик и насколько строго структурирован. Во-вторых, гипоталамус и таламус гораздо больше, чем они мне казались — вероятно, дело в том, что обычно они описываются как «ядра», а ядра мы обычно представляем как некие компактные единицы. На гиппокамп и базальные ганглии также приходится серьёзная доля от общего количества нейронов. В них заключено примерно по столько нейронов, сколько задействуется для реализации важных модальностей в коре больших полушарий — например, для обеспечения слуха.

За каждую такую модальность отвечает существенная часть коры. Задний мозг (в который входят варолиев мост и луковица) и средний мозг (включающий покрышку и крышу мозга) оказались меньше по объёму, чем я полагал – а ведь они, наряду с гипоталамусом, являются наиболее важными отделами мозга с эволюционной точки зрения. Они отвечают за поддержку базовых поведений. Думаю, в общем и целом пропорциональное соотношение этих долей у человека примерно такое же, как и у мыши, так как отношение размеров мозжечка и коры больших полушарий кажется постоянным у разных видов. Правда, предположу, что на кору/мозжечок у человека приходится немного большая доля мозга, чем у мыши.

Сама кора не однородна, а содержит различные специализированные регионы, отвечающие за разные функции. В «голубом атласе мозга» также приводится пропорциональное соотношение этих долей у мыши.

Процентное соотношение нейронов в коре больших полушарий у мыши по выполняемым нейрофизиологическим функциям
Процентное соотношение нейронов в коре больших полушарий у мыши по выполняемым нейрофизиологическим функциям

Ожидаю, что у человека аналогичные соотношения получатся существенно иными. У мыши невероятно велика та доля «полезной площади» коры, которая обслуживает обоняние. На зрение и слух отведено гораздо меньше. Каких-то превосходных данных по человеку у меня нет, но, насколько могу судить, у нас всё примерно наоборот: 27% полезной площади коры обслуживает зрение, сопоставимая доля (8%) обслуживает слух, а на обоняние приходится гораздо меньше (вероятно, 2-3%). Думаю, у человека должны быть крупнее зоны, связанные с ассоциативными способностями, а также более обширная лобная область.Для нейрофизиологов отмечу: под «зонами, связанными с ассоциативными способностями» я понимаюзаднюю теменнуюкоруивисочную долю, которые участвуют в формировании высокоуровневых абстракций, представляемых с участием мультимодальных стимулов.

Аналогично, говоря о «системе гиппокампа», я имею в видупериренальную, энторинальную и ретроспленальную кору, которые участвуют в обеспечении эпизодической памяти и пространственном картировании окружающей среды. Под «лимбической системой» я понимаю переднюю поясную и островковую кору. У мышей и крыс эта доля может быть пропорционально меньше, чем у людей, так как, по-видимому, у грызунов (по сравнению с людьми) увеличена ретроспленальная кора, обеспечивающая ориентирование. Но в целом мы не можем напрямую сравнивать количество нейронов в коре больших полушарий или даже целый мозг с моделями машинного обучения до тех пор, пока модели машинного обучения не станут справляться со всеми теми задачами, которые под силу животным.

Теперь давайте выясним, как экстраполировать на человеческий мозг эти цифры, известные по изучению мышей. Согласно достаточно надёжным источникам, в мозге человека примерно 86 миллиардов нейронов – при 70-100 миллионах нейронов в мышином мозге. Таким образом, в человеческом мозге примерно в 1000 раз больше нейронов, чем в мышином. Кроме того, из этих 86 миллиардов 16 миллиардов локализовано в больших полушариях, а 70 миллиардов в мозжечке (!). Это значит, что по общему количеству нейронов мозжечок абсолютно преобладает над остальными отделами мозга. Естественно, количество нейронов в данном случае неприоритетно, так как интересующие нас параметры связаны в основном с синапсами. Согласно известным оценкам, у человека примерно 1000-10000 синапсовнаодинпирамидальныйнейронкоры. Давайте возьмём эту цифру в качестве исходной, но будем ориентироваться на нижнюю границу, поскольку не все нейроны являются пирамидальными; в коре много интернейронов, а у интернейронов меньше синапсов. В подкорковых зонах, которые также учитываются при подсчёте нейронов, также, вероятно, меньше синапсов на нейрон, но и по этому параметру сложно найти непротиворечивые данные. В принципе, с числом 1000 синапсов на нейрон удобно работать, а нас в рамках этого анализа интересует лишь порядок величин. Если всерьёз воспринимать эти цифры, то можно ожидать, что во всей коре мозга насчитывается примерно 16 миллиардов нейронов, что соответствует 16 триллионам параметров. Это примерно на 2 порядка больше, чем в больших языковых моделях, таких, как GPT3.

Разумеется, не весь мозг занимается языковым моделированием, на эту работу выделяется лишь крошечная доля его ресурсов. В частности, известно, что у человека есть зоны мозга, специально предназначенные для восприятия и понимания языка: это зона Брока и зона Вернике. Они занимают сравнительно небольшую часть мозга. Опять же, сложно найти точную информацию о том, какую именно площадь они занимают. Но вместе на них приходится до 3 из 50 полей Бродмана, и это означает, что примерно 6% объёма коры выделено для обработки естественного языка. Мне кажется, это разумная оценка, даже если немного завышенная. Фактически, можно утверждать, что полезная площадь коры, выделенная на обработку естественного языка, сравнима с площадью, выделяемой на обработку важной сенсорной модальности, например, обоняния илисоматосенсорного восприятия, но несравнима с площадью, обслуживающей фундаментальную модальность – например, зрение или слух.

Если предположить, что наши способности по моделированию языка реализуются преимущественно в зоне Брока и зоне Вернике, то можно оценить, что примерно 400-700 миллионов нейронов и, соответственно, 400-700 миллиардов параметров – это ресурс мозга, используемый для моделирования естественного языка. Интересно, что в таком случае наблюдается примерный паритет с ультрасовременными языковыми моделями или только небольшой перевес относительно них: так, в PaLM примерно 540 миллиардов параметров, в Gopher— 280 миллиардов. Если упрощённо предположить, что языковые параметры мозга и трансформеров масштабируются примерно одинаково, это будет означать, что языковой потенциал современных моделей примерно такой же, как у человека. Берусь утверждать, что эта оценка довольно точна, в пределах примерно одного порядка– с некоторыми задачами языковые модели справляются значительно лучше человека, с другими – гораздо хуже. К задачам второй категории относятся такие, которые связаны с абстрактной логикой, поддержанием долгосрочной согласованности, т.д. Вероятно, они зависят и от работы других зон мозга, и/или физической привязки символов. С другой стороны, в зонах Брока и Вернике, вероятно, реализуется не только обработка языка, но и другие аспекты, например, моторные функции, нужные для порождения речи. Таким образом, нельзя в этой экстраполяции учитывать весь объём их параметров. На самом деле, мне этот результат кажется достаточно удивительным, поскольку подводит к мысли, что мозг и современные модели машинного обучения масштабируются, в принципе, по эквивалентным законам – если говорить о масштабировании параметров (данные — уже другая история).

Данные особенно важны в свете новых законов масштабирования Шиншиллы (Chinchilla AI), согласно которым режим обучения, оптимизированный с учётом данных, превосходит по производительности Gopher и PaLM, хотя Chinchilla AI и оперирует всего 80 миллиардами, но при этом использует триллионы точек данных. Если предположить, что кривая масштабирования мозга более соответствует развитию Chinchilla, чем развитию по принципу GPT3, то следует ожидать, что потенциал моделирования языка в человеческом мозге примерно на порядок выше, чем в самых современных моделях (то есть, мозг работает примерно так же эффективно, какChinchilla с 700 миллиардами параметров).

Можно упрощённо предположить, что такая грубая эквивалентность параметров (с точностью до порядка) между моделями машинного обучения и мозгом распространяется и на человеческие чувства, и на когнитивные способности. Для начала возьмём зрение. В отличие от относительно компактной зоны Брока, область коры, отвечающая за визуальное восприятие, весьма велика. Опять же, точные цифры отыскать сложно, но я видел грубые оценки, согласно которым около 30% коры больших полушарий занято обработкой зрительных образов, и мне эта оценка кажется адекватной (определённо, реальное значение лежит в пределах 15-40%). На таком уровне приблизительно 3-5 миллиардов нейронов и3-5 триллионов синапсоввовлекаетсявобработкувизуальнойинформации, так что представляется, что они примерно на порядок насыщеннее, чем современные языковые модели. Однако, современные зрительные модели SOTA существенно уступают в размерах современным языковым моделям (в них примерно 100 миллиардов параметров). При этом показатель StableDiffusion – примерно 900 миллионов параметров, а у Dalle-2 примерно 12 миллиардов параметров (хотя, полагаю, большая часть этой мощности приходится на компонент, занятый обработкой естественного языка). Таким образом, исходя из нынешнего уровня развития зрительных моделей, их придётся нарастить ещё на 3-4 порядка, чтобы они могли посоперничать в остроте зрения с человеком.

Правда, в настоящее время распознавание образов и генерация изображений уже вышли на довольно хороший уровень, и кажется, что до паритета с человеком им ближе, чем 3-4 порядка. Возможно, дело в том, современные архитектуры машинного обучения для зрительных приложений по сути своей устроены эффективнее мозга. Возможно, дело в разделении весов с применением CNN (свёрточных нейронных сетей) или параллельном прогнозировании последовательностей событий с применением трансформеров и подобных им инновационных архитектур – и мозг с этими технологиями сравниться не может. Другое объяснение – что мозг решает значительно более сложную задачу, нежели распознавание образов, а именно, выполняет гибкую генерацию и интерпретацию видео. Вероятно, чтобы полноценно генерировать такое видео, нейронные сети должны нарастить параметры ещё на несколько порядков. Если это так, то меня это также не удивит, поскольку современные возможности работы с видео весьма ограничены. Нам действительно требуется вывести законы масштабирования визуальных моделей, чтобы докопаться до сути этого вопроса.

Схожие результаты получены и для аудио. Слуховые поля занимают около 7% коры головного мозга. Этот объём сводится к 700 миллионам – 1 миллиарду нейронов и 700 миллиардам – 1 триллиону параметров, такой объём нужен, чтобы создать слуховую систему, сопоставимую с человеческой. Напротив, «whisper model», разработанная OpenAI, практически может сравниться с человеком в преобразовании речи в текст, но обходится всего 1,2 миллиардами параметров. Это, опять же, подводит нас к мысли, что либо мозг очень неэффективно обрабатывает звук, либо что мозг обладает гораздо более мощными возможностями обработки аудио, чем современные модели машинного обучения.

Что насчёт оставшейся части мозга? Учитывая то пропорциональное разделение коры больших полушарий, которое мы очертили выше, такой анализ делается весьма просто. Оценочное количество синапсов на нейрон в подкорковых зонах (например, в гиппокампе и в базальных ганглиях) вероятно, ниже, чем в коре, поэтому количество параметров в нейронах этих зон требуется скорректировать в сторону уменьшения. Всё равно это означает, что мозг оперирует обширными моделями (100 миллиардов -1 триллион параметров), решающими такие задачи, как безмодельное обучение с подкреплением (происходит в базальных ганглиях), а также занимается консолидацией памяти и ориентированием в пространстве (гиппокамп).

Аналогичная аргументация применима и к мозжечку: притом, насколько много там нейронов, почти все они относятся к числу гранулярных клеток мозжечка, а синапсов у таких клеток сравнительно немного (примерно по 5). Кроме того, в мозжечке есть гораздо меньшее количество клеток Пуркинье (их примерно 15 миллионов), и у каждой из них от 10 тысяч до 100 тысяч синапсов. В сумме все эти клетки дают для мозжечка от 500 миллионов до 1 триллиона параметров. То есть, мозжечок сопоставим с большой областью коры, но в масштабах мозга не доминирует. Забавно, но такая оценка весьма точно соответствует функциональной роли операций, выполняемых в мозжечке.

Итак, насколько велика должна быть нейросеть, которая сравнилась бы по мощности с человеческим мозгом? Если оперировать примерно 20 миллиардами нейронов, расположенных вне мозжечка, и предполагать, что, фактически, в мозжечке имеется около триллиона параметров, то можно оценить, что рабочий потенциал полноценного мозга составляет от 10 до 30 триллионов параметров. Это очень много, но всего на 1-2 порядка больше, чем в современных крупномасштабных системах. Допустим, что можно взять за основу современную стоимость обучения GPT3 и количество параметров такой сети. Если предположить, что такая стоимость в пересчёте на параметр растёт линейно, то требуется от 100 миллионов до 1 миллиарда долларов, чтобы обучить современную нейронную сеть, эквивалентную по параметрам человеческому мозгу.

Как же выглядит мозг с точки зрения специалиста по машинному обучению? Мозг – это набор из 10-15 полунезависимых специализированных моделей, размеры которых варьируются от условной PaLM до моделей, которые могут быть примерно на порядок больше PaLM. Каждая из этих моделей специализируется независимо от остальных и управляет конкретной модальностью или функцией организма. Кроме того, эти модели соединены друг с другом через исключительно широкую полосу передачи данных, и коммуникация между ними осуществляется как методом логического вывода, так и через обучение. Те крупномасштабные модели мозга, в которых реализовано обучение с нуля, также обёрнуты в тонкий слой нейронов, обеспечивающих жёстко прошитый функционал. По количеству параметров этот слой миниатюрен, но на практике его влияние очень велико. Такой жёстко запрограммированный функционал отвечает за сбор и предобработку ввода, а также за постобработку вывода (в особенности это касается моторных функций). Также в нём реализовано динамическое целеполагание, зависящее, например, от функции подкрепления в условиях сложившегося гомеостаза. Именно здесь также осуществляется глобальная модуляция таких вещей как внимание, настороженность, уровни возбуждения и т.д. в ответ на внешние стимулы. Все эти модели действуют в режиме реального времени с задержкой порядка 100-200 мс. Они успевают обработать полный цикл, в который входят восприятие, планирование, выбор действия, а затем и моторная реализация. Обучение этих моделей происходит на относительно небольших (но не мизерных) множествах неодинаково распределённых (non-i.i.d) данных. Работа идёт в онлайновой среде POMDP (частично наблюдаемая марковская модель принятия решений) с минимальным размером батча равным 1.

Рассматривая такую модель в контексте современного машинного обучения, приходится признать, что подобная система пока далеко за рамками наших возможностей. Но, если прогресс машинного обучения и инвестиции в эту сферу сохранятся на уровне, наблюдавшемся на протяжении последнего десятилетия, то весьма вероятно, что уже за следующие десять лет мы сможем нарастить наши модели ещё на несколько порядков. Вероятно, для этого предстоит проработать ещё некоторые дополнительные архитектурные детали, и нам понадобятся более эффективные конфигурации или методы обучения, но на этом пути не просматривается каких-либо непреодолимых преград. Поэтому я полагаю, что обозначенные рубежи будут достигнуты уже в ближайшем будущем.

Вопрос данных

В рамках проведённого здесь анализа возникает фундаментальный вопрос, касающийся масштабирования данных с учётом очерченных выше параметров. Законы масштабирования Шиншиллы вновь ставят данные во главу угла, и при использовании этих моделей ясно, что отныне при масштабировании больших языковых моделей именно данные будут основным ограничительным фактором. В описанном контексте это тем более важно, поскольку наш мозг не обучается на целом Интернете. Фактически, довольно легко определить верхнюю границу для таких учебных датасетов. Представьте, что всю вашу жизнь вы потратите на чтение, и будете в течение 80 лет читать по 250 слов в минуту. Получится всего примерно 10 миллиардов токенов, что на порядок меньше даже тех небольших данных, на которых обучаются современные языковые модели. Аналогичная ситуация складывается и с картинками. Чтобы определить верхнюю границу, предположим, что мы просматриваем картинки со скоростью 60 кадров в секунду в течение 80 лет. Это всего лишь 2,5 миллиарда изображений – довольно много, но гораздо меньше, чем весь видео-контент, выложенный в настоящее время на Youtube. Для человека данные верхние границы изрядно завышены, но даже такие оценки уже гораздо ниже, чем стандарты современных больших языковых моделей, масштабируемых по закону Шиншиллы (хотя, будем честны, пока мы не располагаем аналогичными законами масштабирования для изображений и видео. Возможно, обучение таким данным протекает значительно эффективнее, чем обучение языку, хотя, это и кажется маловероятным).

Здесь вырисовываются две возможности, которые можно представить в виде спектра. a.) Данные – это фактор, фундаментально ограничивающий человеческий интеллект, и поэтому из-за недостатка данных мозг вынужден оперировать огромным количеством параметров, чтобы успевать масштабироваться. Поэтому кривая масштабирования человеческого мозга очень далека от оптимальной. b.) Мозг оперирует данными гораздо эффективнее, чем современные модели машинного обучения, и поэтому опирается на иной закон масштабирования, в рамках которых количество данных далеко не столь важно. Лично я считаю, что вариант .b гораздо вероятнее, но и вариант .a (в мозге слишком много параметров) также вероятен. Постараюсь аргументировать эту точку зрения, хотя, как мне кажется, мои доводы нельзя считать определяющими.

1.) Вероятно, люди (и животные) получают более качественные данные, чем ИИ. Мы можем пойти погулять, повзаимодействовать с окружающим миром и выбрать из него желаемые данные, а не довольствоваться неодинаково распределёнными, произвольно полученными и избыточными данными, взятыми из Интернета. Вероятно, поэтому мы подчиняемся более выигрышному закону масштабирования. Особенно это касается данных, распределённых по закону Ципфа, где вероятность появления редких токенов или данных в наборе, полученном методом чисто случайной выборки, остаётся крайне низкой. Фактически, человек, приобретая знания на практике, учится отбирать данные по принципу их важности.

2.) Если данные действительно являются узким местом, то естественный отбор должен был исключительно сильно действовать в направлении оптимизации эффективности обработки данных и поддерживать развитие таких эффективных архитектур. В современном машинном обучении такой фактор пока отсутствует, поскольку современные результаты пока добываются при помощи систем, узким местом которых является вычислительная мощность. Представляется априори маловероятным, что современные архитектуры приближаются к максимальной эффективности при обработке данных.

3.) Различные животные, например, мы и мартышки, а также, вероятно, даже мыши или другие мелкие млекопитающие, вероятно, получают на вход примерно одинаковые объёмы зрительной и слуховой информации, но эволюция продолжает поддерживать наращивать в коре нашего головного мозга те области, которые отвечают за обработку «видео» и «аудио». Такое развитие событий маловероятно, если относительно этих модальностей у нас работает какой-нибудь исключительно плохой закон масштабирования. Интересно, что как раз обратная тенденция наблюдается с обонянием – как правило, чем больше мозг, тем меньшая зона в нём отводится на обработку запахов.

4.) Известно, что многие задачи, которые привычно решать людям (пусть и не всегда) опираются на более качественные выборки, чем предоставляются современным моделям машинного обучения. Следовательно, мы можем в принципе превосходить ИИ в эффективности выборки данных, и поэтому мы подчиняемся более выгодному масштабированию параметров относительно данных.

Допущения в модели

Здесь я представлю исключительно простую модель, в которой не претендую на точность сверх 1-2 порядков (надеюсь уложиться). Но я удивлюсь, если реальные цифры будут отличаться от моих сильнее, даже с учётом всех тех упрощений, которые я допускаю

1.) Нельзя ставить знак равенства между синапсами и параметрами нейронной сети. Приведу два аргумента. Во-первых, точность у синапсов ниже, чем у 32-разрядных чисел с плавающей точкой, обычно используемых для представления весов в нейронных сетях. Синапсы зашумлены и могут передавать относительно немного бит информации. Поэтому фактическое количество параметров в пересчёте на синапс снижается. С другой стороны, синапсы превосходят по свойствам веса искусственной нейронной сети. Например, они приспособлены как к быстрому, так и к медленному весовому обучению и, следовательно, неявно реализуют какую-то схему быстрых весов.

2.) Нейроны в мозге сложнее, чем в искусственных нейронных сетях. Так и есть, но я полагаю, что этот эффект незначителен по сравнению с количеством синапсов. Определённо, нейроны способны, например, подстраивать свой порог под силу входного сигнала; кроме того, их работа различным образом модулируется под действием тех или иных нейромедиаторов. Можно предположить, что при наличии таких свойств каждый нейрон обладает 5 дополнительными параметрами обучения. Это мизер по сравнению с 1000-10000 параметров, закодированных в его синапсах. С другой стороны, само наличие этих параметров означает, что мозг гораздо лучше нейронки способен адаптировать обучение «на лету», исходя из совершаемых умозаключений, тогда как нейронка вычисляет всего лишь фиксированную функцию. Вероятно, это очень полезно для динамической корректировки поведения, но в долгосрочной перспективе должно слабо сказываться на весовом обучении.

3.) Дендритное дерево сложнее линейной суммы всех входных сигналов, поступающих в синапс. Поэтому у тех синапсов, что расположены ближе к телу нейрона, вес выше. Существует множество областей интеграции дендритов (базальные, апикальные, т.д.). Возможно, дендриты способны мультипликативно взаимодействовать друг с другом, так, чтобы некоторые синапсы служили затворами для других или что-то в этом роде. Всё это возможно, но мне не удаётся качественно смоделировать, как это могло бы увеличивать фактическое количество параметров на нейрон.

4.) Возможно, используемый в мозге алгоритм обучения боле или менее эффективен, чем обратное распространение. Так, вероятно, мозг не использует обратное распространение при присваивании достоверности тем или иным фактам из-за проблем, связанным с локализацией или возможностями распараллеливания, но учиться он должен как-то иначе. Обратное распространение – это априори очень эффективный алгоритм, вероятно, что алгоритм нашего мозга похуже. С другой стороны, общий алгоритм определения достоверности фактов, действующий в коре мозга, подвергался бы сильному давлению естественного отбора, поэтому он мог получиться весьма качественным, может быть, даже лучше, чем обратное распространение. Полагаю, действительно существуют более эффективные алгоритмы, чем обратное распространение. Поскольку пока мы очень слабо представляем, как именно в коре мозга присваивается степень достоверности любым фактам, это огромный открытый вопрос и фактор неопределённости, не позволяющий подсчитать, сколько именно параметров в человеческом мозге.

Биологические законы масштабирования

Иллюстрация из статьи https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2776484/. Позволяет сравнить масштабы человеческого мозга и мозга других животных
Иллюстрация из статьи https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2776484/. Позволяет сравнить масштабы человеческого мозга и мозга других животных

Выше мы фокусировались на законах масштабирования, характерных для машинного обучения. Но давайте поговорим и о биологических законах масштабирования, открытых в рамках нейронауки. Уже известно, что «интеллектуальность» живого существа тесно связана с количеством нейронов в его головном мозге. Таким образом, подразумевается относительно пологая кривая масштабирования, описывающая соотношение параметров и интеллектуальной производительности в природе. Не имея какого-либо средства для межвидового измерения и сравнения интеллекта, невозможно вывести точные коэффициенты масштабирования, как это делается в машинном обучении, но очевидно, что описанный закон существует. Нет причин полагать, что именно у человека этот закон перестаёт действовать.

Занятно, что, в соответствии с этой статьёй, на самом деле в живой природе действует несколько законов масштабирования, согласно которым размер мозга соотносится с количеством нейронов. Большинство млекопитающих работают по относительно плохому закону масштабирования, согласно которому с ростом количества нейронов необходимо в гораздо более высокой пропорции увеличивать и количество обволакивающих их глиальных клеток. Соответственно, плотность нейронов снижается и выигрыш от такого наращивания также резко падает. Напротив, приматы, как представляется, вышли на значительно улучшенный закон масштабирования, позволяющий увеличивать количество нейронов и глиальных клеток в соотношении 1:1, благодаря чему плотность нейронов остаётся постоянной независимо от масштаба. Таким образом, мы в состоянии поддерживать гораздо больше нейронов в мозге заданной величины, и поэтому мы значительно умнее более крупных животных, например, слонов или китов. Мозг слона существенно больше, чем мозг человека.

Представляется, что мозг человека как раз вписывается в те размеры, которые выводятся для него в соответствии с законом масштабирования, действующим у приматов. Без межвидового сравнительного измерения интеллекта сложно судить, умнее люди или, наоборот, глупее, чем другие приматы. Опять же, я полагаю, что человеческий мозг совершенно стандартен, поэтому нет причин полагать, что далее он будет масштабироваться вразрез с общим законом, действующим для приматов. Если мы создадим значительно более крупных приматов с «приматским» мозгом, то следует ожидать, что они будут умнее нас.

Представляется, что размер человеческого мозга ограничен в основном количеством калорий, требуемым на поддержание его работы – а более 25% нашего энергетического бюджета тратится на мозг. Дополнительные факторы, которые могут ограничивать размер нашего мозга – это требования к его охлаждению, а также размер черепа, с которым младенец в принципе может родиться. Однако, поскольку для работы мозга требуется целых 25% от общей вырабатываемой нами энергии, представляется, что существует разумный компромисс между размерами тела и интеллектуальностью особи, и что простое увеличение мозга не всегда играет определяющую роль, как минимум, в такой среде, где можно учиться на опыте предков. Не просматривается причин, по которым на мозг нельзя было бы потратить и 50% общего энергетического бюджета, если бы интеллект при дальнейшем наращивании продолжал бы давать ощутимые преимущества. Поэтому наблюдаемый сегодня уровень в 25% подразумевает, что дальнейшие инвестиции в размер мозга не более ценны, чем инвестиции в мышечную массу, здоровье внутренних органов и т.д. Мне кажется, именно поэтому следует ожидать, что при дальнейшем наращивании размеров мозга выигрыш от этого должен постепенно снижаться, как и в стандартном степенном законе масштабирования, наблюдаемом в машинном обучении. Естественно, эти рассуждения справедливы для особи, растущей и обучающейся в окружении предков, а не в такой среде, в которой мы обитаем сегодня.

Стоит задуматься, применима ли аналогичная аргументация и при масштабировании систем машинного обучения. Все известные факты наводят на мысль, что масштабирование даёт строго сублинейный рост. Соответственно, любой, даже незначительный выигрыш в интеллекте даётся всё большей ценой. Этот сценарий очень отличается от сверхлинейного масштабирования, которое требуется при машинном обучении по сценарию, когда рост интеллекта способствует дальнейшему росту интеллекта (FOOM).

Источник

  • 22.06.26 21:51 kimberlyhebert786

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  • 05.07.26 14:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 05.07.26 14:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 06.07.26 16:20 Olga Ognjanović

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  • 06.07.26 16:31 Joseph Weigl

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  • 07.07.26 18:00 robertalfred175

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  • 07.07.26 18:01 robertalfred175

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  • 09.07.26 19:06 Toivo Walli

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  • 09.07.26 19:10 Misty Alexander

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  • 13.07.26 23:49 [email protected]

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  • 15.07.26 11:53 Sarah Green

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 16.07.26 21:38 patricialovick86

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  • 18.07.26 17:12 Malthe Larsen

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  • 18.07.26 23:51 bernalzenaida

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  • 19.07.26 04:10 Fraddy Pual

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:53 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 19.07.26 19:54 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 30.07.26 00:04 Ahmed

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  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 30.07.26 17:27 wendytaylor015

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  • 31.07.26 16:21 rssllhrnsb

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TEXT : (tatianasorina06 at G.Ma IL ..c 0 m ) Before committing money to any investment, take time to verify the legitimacy of the platform, confirm any relevant regulatory authorisations, and avoid investing more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

  • 01.08.26 15:05 keithwilson9899

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  • 01.08.26 15:05 keithwilson9899

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  • 03.08.26 20:05 Philip

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  • 03.08.26 20:06 Philip

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  • 04.08.26 11:05 Kisnoles

    Excellent analysis, thank you. I was particularly struck by how rigidly the skill sets the order: data processing and form come first, with color coming last. This really cures the habit of "first a pretty palette, then we'll figure it out." A palette validator using OKLCH + color blindness + WCAG is something most chart generators lack. And regarding the boundaries of competence, it's very clear. Where there's a self-checking loop (color), you delegate freely. Where there's a heuristic (form, data interpretation), you remain the final filter. This is a universal principle, not just for /dataviz. By the way, when you look at trading dashboards (including those of decent platforms like ExpertOption), it's immediately clear who thought about readability and who just threw in rainbow lines. Tools like this skill could greatly improve the quality of analytics. Thanks again for the detailed analysis – saved.

  • 04.08.26 12:37 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 16.08.26 01:44 Matt Kegan

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  • 18.08.26 04:59 marcushenderson624

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  • 19.08.26 14:50 BAYER7043

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  • 20.08.26 11:32 michaeldavenport218

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  • 23.08.26 20:02 leslieyee

    Excellent analysis by /dataviz! I was particularly struck by how strictly the order is defined: "data meaning first, color last" and how the validator actually adjusts the palette according to OKLCH, color blindness, and WCAG standards. These rules greatly improve the quality of charts. By the way, a similar approach to clean and legible charts is highly valued in trading—for example, on the ExpertOption platform, the interface and price visualization are designed to ensure information is read instantly and without unnecessary noise.

  • 25.08.26 13:44 lydiassmith567

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  • 30.08.26 15:37 [email protected]

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  • 01.09.26 17:34 Garry42

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  • 02.09.26 03:43 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 11.09.26 03:23 kimberlyhebertt6877

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  • 15.09.26 03:35 elioduncan

    I fell victim to a freelance web development contract scam that ultimately cost me CAD 4,000. It all started when I came across a job posting on Indeed Canada, a popular online job portal. The position seemed perfect: a freelance web developer role for an established company looking for someone to design and build a fully functional e-commerce website. The job promised a high payment of CAD 20,000 upon successful completion, which sounded like a great opportunity for me to gain experience and earn decent pay.The employer, who introduced himself as a project manager from a "well-known" tech company, was very persuasive and professional in our initial communication. He explained that the project involved developing a user-friendly, responsive online store for their client and that they had a strict timeline to meet. He assured me that the payment would be made promptly after completing the tasks. However, before starting the work, he told me that I would need to pay an upfront fee of CAD 4,000 to cover certain software tools and licensing fees required for the project. This was supposedly a part of their company policy for freelance contractors, ensuring access to their premium resources. The idea of working on a professional project, coupled with the promise of a substantial payout, convinced me to pay the upfront fee.As soon as I made the payment, the project manager became increasingly difficult to reach. He initially responded to my emails and provided some vague instructions on what the project would entail, but as time went on, communication slowed to a complete halt. I never received the required tools or any proper project details. My emails went unanswered, and any attempts to contact the company were met with silence. After waiting for weeks, I realized that I had been scammed.Desperate to recover my money, I turned to TechY Force Cyber Retrieval, a service that specializes in helping victims of online scams. They helped me track the payment and took legal steps to pursue the fraudsters. Through their guidance, I was able to recover the full CAD 4,000. TechY Force Cyber Retrieval worked with my bank to reverse the transaction and liaised with the authorities to trace the scammer's details.This was a hard lesson, and I now know to be highly cautious about online job offers that require upfront payments. It is crucial to research companies thoroughly and avoid any job that seems too good to be true, especially when it involves paying money upfront. WhatsApp https://wa.link/2x6ktp Mail. [email protected]

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  • 15.09.26 15:45 lydiassmith567

    HIRE A HACKER YOUR STOLEN CRYPTO RECOVERY / BTC / USDT / ETH WITH THE HELP OF CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER. I want to share my experience publicly regarding cryptocurrency wallet recovery, I highly recommend you to contact CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER, a professional private investigator in the Bitcoin world. They have a certified expert security team specializing in Bitcoin Recovery Services and have helped many people worldwide recover their lost funds. My wife and I were defrauded by an online manipulator posing as an experienced crypto investment professional. We lost $9.2 Million Stolen BTC in cryptocurrency and were left feeling homeless. After spending hours searching for a reliable crypto recovery service, I discovered CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER online. By patiently explaining my situation to their team, I was able to recover all my funds. Remarkably, my money was returned to my wallet in less than 24 hours. I am extremely grateful to CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER for their excellent assistance—they truly were a godsend in my difficult situation. If you have fallen victim to a cryptocurrency scam, you can reach CAPITAL CRYPTO RECOVER through the following channels Email: [email protected] OR Call/WhatsApp: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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