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[Перевод] DeepSeek подтвердила мои подозрения относительно OpenAI. Разработчик ChatGPT ведет проигрышную игру

DeepSeek только что подтвердил мои подозрения относительно OpenAI. Разработчик ChatGPT ведет проигрышную игру
DeepSeek только что подтвердил мои подозрения относительно OpenAI. Разработчик ChatGPT ведет проигрышную игру

Есть три типичные причины, по которым OpenAI попадает в новости:

  1. Члены совета директоров терпят фиаско.

  2. Они запускают новый продукт

  3. Или они ноют о том, что все еще не получают прибыль

Недавно они попали в новости по причине номер 3.

В начале января Сэм Альтман опубликовал этот раздражающий твит.

DeepSeek только что подтвердил мои подозрения относительно OpenAI. Разработчик ChatGPT ведет проигрышную игру
DeepSeek только что подтвердил мои подозрения относительно OpenAI. Разработчик ChatGPT ведет проигрышную игру

Для контекста, 5 декабря 2024 года OpenAI запустила подписку ChatGPT Pro за 200 долларов, которая, по их собственным словам, «обеспечивает масштабный доступ к лучшим моделям и инструментам OpenAI».

Подписка за 200 долларов в месяц стоит довольно дорого, но подписчики получают неограниченный доступ к самым интеллектуальным моделям OpenAI. Речь идет об одних из самых крутых инструментов на рынке ИИ на сегодняшний день: OpenAI o1, o1-mini, GPT-4o, Advanced Voice и другие.

То, что OpenAI все еще теряет деньги, несмотря на эту модель подписки, меня совсем не удивляет. С одной стороны, это подтверждает мою давнюю позицию: подход OpenAI к запуску слишком большого количества моделей не является разумным.

Я сбился со счета, сколько еще блестящих инструментов запустил OpenAI с тех пор, как ChatGPT дебютировал в 2022 году. Запуск новых и передовых продуктов, похоже, является их основной стратегией для получения прибыли.

Компания всегда выпускает новый продукт еще до того, как рынок успевает привыкнуть к тому, который они запустили последним.

Но у крупнейших компаний современности дела обстояли иначе. У других технологических гигантов было меньше продуктов, когда они стали прибыльными:

  • Компания Google стала прибыльной, когда на рынке было всего два продукта: Google Search и Google AdWord.

  • Компания Facebook стала прибыльной, имея в качестве основных продуктов только приложение Facebook и рекламу.

  • Компания Apple начала получать прибыль уже через два года после своего основания, а ее основными продуктами были Apple I и II.

  • Компания Microsoft начала получать прибыль сразу после запуска, став единственным поставщиком интерпретатора BASIC для набора Altair 8800.

Компания OpenAI, выпустившая более восьми продуктов (я знаю, что сбился со счета, но мне нужно было наверстать упущенное, чтобы сказать об этом), до сих пор не стала прибыльной.

И я понимаю, что основная причина такой нерентабельности - безумная стоимость обучения и запуска ИИ-моделей,а также большие инвестиции, которые тратятся на исследования и разработки.

Запуск моделей обходится OpenAI в 700 000 долларов в день, а на исследования и разработки они тратят миллиарды в год. В итоге, несмотря на то, что в прошлом году компания заработала более 3,7 миллиарда долларов, ее чистый убыток составил более 5 миллиардов долларов.

Все в OpenAI большое: пользователи, оценка, доход, количество продуктов и убытки. Все, кроме прибыли!

Я решил, что запуск слишком большого количества продуктов в качестве средства достижения прибыльности - не самый лучший вариант, потому что это приведет к резкому увеличению расходов на обучение и текущие расходы.

Это простая математика.

Если OpenAI обходится в гипотетические $0,1/запрос, когда кто-то использует один из ее продуктов, то эти расходы будут расти тем быстрее, чем больше пользователей будет у OpenAI - будь то один продукт или 10. Больше продуктов и пользователей означает, что вы тратите больше денег.

Каждый стартап отдал бы все, чтобы иметь миллион пользователей, и пошел бы на все, чтобы иметь более одного продукта, которым пользуются люди. Имея более 300 миллионов пользователей только у ChatGPT и до 10 продуктов на рынке, OpenAI должна была бы исполнить свою мечту. Но с учетом реалий, связанных с затратами, мечта каждого стартапа становится в данном случае кошмаром OpenAI.

Я не знаю, почему OpenAI продолжает идти по пути увеличения количества продуктов. Достаточно применить Первый принцип мышления, и станет ясно, что вместо увеличения количества продуктов OpenAI следует сосредоточиться на инновациях, направленных на снижение затрат на обучение и эксплуатацию.

Возвращаясь к нашему гипотетическому сценарию, если стоимость одного запроса может быть снижена до 0,01 доллара для каждого пользователя, это означает 10-кратное сокращение текущих расходов. И кто сказал, что они остановятся на этом?

SpaceX последовала модели снижения затрат при создании и запуске ракет.

Говорю ли я, что это легко сделать? Определенно нет.

Я сомневался, что такой подход к снижению затрат можно применить к обучению и запуску ИИ, особенно если учесть, что отрасль только зарождается, и то, что OpenAI рискует проиграть конкурентам, если решит сосредоточиться на снижении затрат, а не на выпуске новых и лучших продуктов.

Таковы были мои сомнения, пока не появился DeepSeek.

Уроки от SpaceX и DeepSeek

Когда-то освоение космоса было самым большим делом. Но все в нем очень сложно.

От теорий, которые лежат в его основе, до практического аспекта строительства ракет, которые исследуют все за пределами Земли, космические исследования - это то, на что отваживаются лишь немногие. Остальным это не по зубам.

Хуже того, все, что связано с освоением космоса, стоит до смешного дорого. Отправка ракеты в космос обычно обходится НАСА почти в 2 миллиарда долларов. Последствия таких затрат двояки:

  • В космос отправляется меньше ракет

  • В результате освоение космоса происходит медленнее

Тогда Илон Маск решил поступить иначе.

С помощью SpaceX Маск смог сделать ракетостроение значительно дешевле. Полеты SpaceX могут стоить от $62 млн до $90 млн - это более чем 90-процентное снижение цены. А это влечет за собой двойную выгоду: мы можем отправлять в космос больше ракет, а значит, ускорять освоение космоса.

Компании удалось добиться этого благодаря сочетанию нескольких факторов:

  • Собственное производство (в отличие от аутсорсинга)

  • Упрощение конструкции

  • И возможность повторного использования

В результате, по состоянию на апрель 2024 года, SpaceX будет запускать миссии каждые 2,7 дня. Это число приобретает особую значимость, если вспомнить, что с середины 1980-х по 2010-е годы миссия запускалась каждые 2,8 дня, причем не только НАСА, но и во всем мире!

Появление DeepSeek

DeepSeek привел в ужас мир технологий после того, как 20 января запустил свою новейшую модель R-1.

Не нужно разбираться в технике, чтобы понять всю гениальность и значимость этого запуска.

Стоит отметить только три момента:

  • Её производительность соответствует или превосходит модель o1 от OpenAI в некоторых ИИ-тестах.

  • Использование модели бесплатно, а стоимость API составляет одну тридцатую от стоимости модели OpenAI o1.

  • Обучение одной модели обошлось в 5,6 миллиона долларов, в то время как стоимость создания модели составляет от 100 000 до 1 миллиарда долларов.

Вместо того чтобы поступать так, как поступали уже состоявшиеся игроки в области ИИ, компания DeepSeek решила действовать по-другому. Это помогло им сократить расходы, добившись при этом почти таких же результатов, как и другие игроки в этой игре. Они сделали как минимум четыре вещи по-другому:

  1. Использовали умную оптимизацию, чтобы заставить имеющиеся ресурсы работать эффективнее.

  2. Обучали только важные части

  3. Отдали предпочтение меньшему объему памяти, что привело к более быстрым результатам и снижению затрат.

  4. Использовали усиленное обучение

Детали скорее сложные, чем простые, но результат очевиден для всех.

Будем надеяться, что OpenAI поймет, что нужно внедрять инновации, направленные на снижение затрат, а не продолжать наводнять рынок многочисленными продуктами и взимать с пользователей непомерную абонентскую плату. Это можно сделать.

Друзья, буду рад, если вы подпишетесь на мой телеграм-канал про нейросети, чтобы не пропускать анонсы статей, и канал с советами для тех, кто только учится работать с нейросетями - я стараюсь делиться только полезной информацией.

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    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 12.10.25 01:12 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 12.10.25 19:53 Tonerdomark

    A crook swiped my Dogecoin. It ruined my whole world. Then Mr. Sylvester showed up. He fixed it all. He pulled back €211,000 for me. Not one cent missing from my profits. His steady cool and sharp tech know-how won back my trust. I got my money smooth and sound. After endless worry, relief hit me hard. I trusted him completely. Lost cash to a scam? Hit him up now at { yt7cracker@gmail . com }. His aid turned my life around. WhatsApp at +1 512 577 7957.

  • 12.10.25 21:36 blessing

    Writing this review is a joy. Marie has provided excellent service ever since I started working with her in early 2018. I was worried I wouldn't be able to get my coins back after they were stolen by hackers. I had no idea where to begin, therefore it was a nightmare for me. However, things became easier for me after my friend sent me to [email protected] and +1 7127594675 on WhatsApp. I'm happy that she was able to retrieve my bitcoin so that I could resume trading.

  • 13.10.25 01:11 elizabethrush89

    God bless Capital Crypto Recover Services for the marvelous work you did in my life, I have learned the hard way that even the most sensible investors can fall victim to scams. When my USD was stolen, for anyone who has fallen victim to one of the bitcoin binary investment scams that are currently ongoing, I felt betrayal and upset. But then I was reading a post on site when I saw a testimony of Wendy Taylor online who recommended that Capital Crypto Recovery has helped her recover scammed funds within 24 hours. after reaching out to this cyber security firm that was able to help me recover my stolen digital assets and bitcoin. I’m genuinely blown away by their amazing service and professionalism. I never imagined I’d be able to get my money back until I complained to Capital Crypto Recovery Services about my difficulties and gave all of the necessary paperwork. I was astounded that it took them 12 hours to reclaim my stolen money back. Without a doubt, my USDT assets were successfully recovered from the scam platform, Thank you so much Sir, I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover for any of your bitcoin recovery, digital funds recovery, hacking, and cybersecurity concerns. You reach them Call/Text Number +1 (336)390-6684 His Email: [email protected] Contact Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Via Contact: [email protected] His website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 13.10.25 01:11 elizabethrush89

    God bless Capital Crypto Recover Services for the marvelous work you did in my life, I have learned the hard way that even the most sensible investors can fall victim to scams. When my USD was stolen, for anyone who has fallen victim to one of the bitcoin binary investment scams that are currently ongoing, I felt betrayal and upset. But then I was reading a post on site when I saw a testimony of Wendy Taylor online who recommended that Capital Crypto Recovery has helped her recover scammed funds within 24 hours. after reaching out to this cyber security firm that was able to help me recover my stolen digital assets and bitcoin. I’m genuinely blown away by their amazing service and professionalism. I never imagined I’d be able to get my money back until I complained to Capital Crypto Recovery Services about my difficulties and gave all of the necessary paperwork. I was astounded that it took them 12 hours to reclaim my stolen money back. Without a doubt, my USDT assets were successfully recovered from the scam platform, Thank you so much Sir, I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover for any of your bitcoin recovery, digital funds recovery, hacking, and cybersecurity concerns. You reach them Call/Text Number +1 (336)390-6684 His Email: [email protected] Contact Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Via Contact: [email protected] His website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 01:15 tyleradams

    Hi. Please be wise, do not make the same mistake I had made in the past, I was a victim of bitcoin scam, I saw a glamorous review showering praises and marketing an investment firm, I reached out to them on what their contracts are, and I invested $28,000, which I was promised to get my first 15% profit in weeks, when it’s time to get my profits, I got to know the company was bogus, they kept asking me to invest more and I ran out of patience then requested to have my money back, they refused to answer nor refund my funds, not until a friend of mine introduced me to the NVIDIA TECH HACKERS, so I reached out and after tabling my complaints, they were swift to action and within 36 hours I got back my funds with the due profit. I couldn’t contain the joy in me. I urge you guys to reach out to NVIDIA TECH HACKERS on their email: [email protected]

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 14.10.25 08:46 robertalfred175

    CRYPTO SCAM RECOVERY SUCCESSFUL – A TESTIMONIAL OF LOST PASSWORD TO YOUR DIGITAL WALLET BACK. My name is Robert Alfred, Am from Australia. I’m sharing my experience in the hope that it helps others who have been victims of crypto scams. A few months ago, I fell victim to a fraudulent crypto investment scheme linked to a broker company. I had invested heavily during a time when Bitcoin prices were rising, thinking it was a good opportunity. Unfortunately, I was scammed out of $120,000 AUD and the broker denied me access to my digital wallet and assets. It was a devastating experience that caused many sleepless nights. Crypto scams are increasingly common and often involve fake trading platforms, phishing attacks, and misleading investment opportunities. In my desperation, a friend from the crypto community recommended Capital Crypto Recovery Service, known for helping victims recover lost or stolen funds. After doing some research and reading multiple positive reviews, I reached out to Capital Crypto Recovery. I provided all the necessary information—wallet addresses, transaction history, and communication logs. Their expert team responded immediately and began investigating. Using advanced blockchain tracking techniques, they were able to trace the stolen Dogecoin, identify the scammer’s wallet, and coordinate with relevant authorities to freeze the funds before they could be moved. Incredibly, within 24 hours, Capital Crypto Recovery successfully recovered the majority of my stolen crypto assets. I was beyond relieved and truly grateful. Their professionalism, transparency, and constant communication throughout the process gave me hope during a very difficult time. If you’ve been a victim of a crypto scam, I highly recommend them with full confidence contacting: 📧 Email: [email protected] 📱 Telegram: @Capitalcryptorecover Contact: [email protected] 📞 Call/Text: +1 (336) 390-6684 🌐 Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 18:07 crypto

    Cryptocurrency's digital realm presents many opportunities, but it also conceals complex frauds. It is quite painful to lose your cryptocurrency to scam. You can feel harassed and lost as a result. If you have been the victim of a cryptocurrency scam, this guide explains what to do ASAP. Following these procedures will help you avoid further issues or get your money back. Communication with Marie ([email protected] and WhatsApp: +1 7127594675) can make all the difference.

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

  • 15.10.25 21:52 harristhomas7376

    "In the crypto world, this is great news I want to share. Last year, I fell victim to a scam disguised as a safe investment option. I have invested in crypto trading platforms for about 10yrs thinking I was ensuring myself a retirement income, only to find that all my assets were either frozen, I believed my assets were secure — until I discovered that my BTC funds had been frozen and withdrawals were impossible. It was a devastating moment when I realized I had been scammed, and I thought my Bitcoin was gone forever, Everything changed when a close friend recommended the Capital Crypto Recover Service. Their professionalism, expertise, and dedication enabled me to recover my lost Bitcoin funds back — more than €560.000 DEM to my BTC wallet. What once felt impossible became a reality thanks to their support. If you have lost Bitcoin through scams, hacking, failed withdrawals, or similar challenges, don’t lose hope. I strongly recommend Capital Crypto Recover Service to anyone seeking a reliable and effective solution for recovering any wallet assets. They have a proven track record of successful reputation in recovering lost password assets for their clients and can help you navigate the process of recovering your funds. Don’t let scammers get away with your hard-earned money – contact Email: [email protected] Phone CALL/Text Number: +1 (336) 390-6684 Contact: [email protected] Website: https://recovercapital.wixsite.com/capital-crypto-rec-1

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