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Основатель Solana предупредил о реальности квантовой угрозы для биткоина

Сообщество должно ускорить внедрение мер по защите первой криптовалюты от квантовых угроз, поскольку прогресс в области вычислений может превзойти прогнозы. Об этом заявил соучредитель Solana Анатолий Яковенко.

В ходе подкаста All-In Summit 2025 он отметил, что по его ощущениям с вероятностью 50% в этой сфере нас ждет значительный прорыв уже через пять лет.

«Мы должны перевести биткоин на квантоустойчивую систему подписи. Это моя ставка, потому что прямо сейчас происходит конвергенция множества технологий. И этот асимптотический темп ИИ, и то, как он быстро ускоряется от исследовательской статьи до внедрения, просто поражает», — отметил Яковенко.

По его мнению, главным сигналом для миграции архитектуры цифрового золота выступит принятие квантоустойчивой криптографии технологическими гигантами.

«Так что следите за тем, куда движется Google», — сказал он.

Предупредив о долгосрочных угрозах, Яковенко подчеркнул устойчивость первой криптовалюты к существующим рискам.

Он выразил уверенность, что потенциальный крах компаний с биткоин-казначействами вроде Strategy вызовет потрясение на рынке, но не сможет разрушить сам актив из-за его децентрализованной структуры.

«Полагаю, пока существует открытая глобальная конкуренция за приобретение биткоинов, […] и пока мы не окажемся в каком-нибудь регуляторном кошмаре, знаете, как в 70-х годах, когда нельзя было купить золото, думаю, он переживет подобные потрясения», — заявил Яковенко.

Сооснователь Solana также высоко оценил алгоритм консенсуса Proof-of-Work как надежную защиту цифрового золота от скоординированных атак и масштабных взломов.

«Прелесть в том, что это самый простой протокол, который можно построить, поскольку он ориентирован только на взаиморасчеты. Его очень легко понять с инженерной точки зрения, а PoW — это шедевр с точки зрения элегантности и простоты», — добавил он.

В декабре 2024 года специалисты Google Quantum AI представили чип Willow, на возможности которого как потенциальной квантовой угрозы биткоину обратили внимание в криптосообществе.

Эксперты разошлись во мнениях. Одни указали, что с математической точки зрения риск взлома первой криптовалюты выглядит крайне далеким. Основатель Capriole Fund Чарльз Эдвардс ответил оптимистам, что в своих прогнозах они не учитывают развитие технологий по экспоненциальной траектории. Как пример он привел сферу ИИ.

Подобное мнение выразил ученый из Университета Калгари Пьер-Люк Даллер-Демерс. По его оценке, осталось около пяти лет до момента, когда коммерческие квантовые компьютеры смогут взломать защиту биткоин-кошельков.

Независимо от вероятных сроков в сообществе начали обсуждать последствия для активов, хранящихся на уязвимых адресах. Речь идет и об утраченных монетах, включая ~1 млн BTC, вероятно, принадлежащих Сатоши Накамото. В перспективе все эти биткоины взломают и вернут в обращение, считает CEO Tether Паоло Ардоино.

Сооснователь Casa Джеймсон Лопп выступил против восстановления утерянных монет с помощью квантовых вычислений и предложил их превентивно сжечь.

При этом, по оценке специалистов Chaincode Labs, потенциально под угрозой взлома в перспективе находится от 20% до 50% всех биткоинов в обращении (4-10 млн BTC).

Разработчики рассматривают несколько подходов к защите первой криптовалюты от квантовой угрозы.

Напомним, аналитики Mysten Labs пришли к выводу, что блокчейн Solana более устойчив к подобным рискам, чем биткоин и Ethereum.

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